Daily Grain Comments

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2010-08-20T14:16:00.001-05:00

ELBURN COOP DAILY GRAIN COMMENTS CAN NOW BE FOUND AT:

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Tuesday, August 17, 2010

2010-08-17T16:37:00.002-05:00

Crop conditions have clearly been deteriorating over the past 3 weeks nationwide in Corn. G/E ratings were down 2% on Monday night and thoughts of smaller crops have pushed corn prices near highs for the year on the Chicago Board of Trade. Illinois was down 1% and now sits at 63% vs 62% at this time last year. Iowa is down to 68% vs 77% last year, Nebraska 83 vs 77 ly, MN 90 vs 74 last year. Corn finished up 7 cents today with Dec 2010 futures at $4.30. Funds are estimated long 350,000 contracts of corn. The Pro Farmer crop tour is going on this week with results published at the end of the week. So far, estimates and conditions are closely reflecting the USDA crop ratings of Monday night.

Soybean ratings have leveled off this week, with the USDA projecting 66% national G/E rating vs last weeks 66% and in line with last year at 66%. Illinois is at 64 vs 60 ly, Iowa 69 vs 77 ly, MN 88 vs 67 ly, and Indiana 59 vs 60 ly. Soybean exports continue to impress, as does the new crop basis levels for Sep - Jan 2011. Bottom line, there is huge demand for our soybeans throughout the world during these 5 months!

Wheat has largely calmed down after losing nearly $2 off it's blow-off top earlier this month. The Russian wheat crop implications will take months to sort out but many believe our wheat crop along with higher futures prices will stem the shortfall very quickly, there are a lot of acres throughout the world that can grow wheat if the price is right, acres that aren't necessarily being used for much of anything right now.

Enjoy the cooler weather.

Scott Meyer

Monday August 9th, 2010

2010-08-09T14:59:00.002-05:00

Corn ended lower in a see-saw session, as the market tracked volatile wheat prices. There was little fresh news for the corn market to digest, as weather for the crop remains mostly benign. Weather forecasts are showing less extreme heat. The market swung between gains and losses, and ended lower as the wheat market stumbled into the close. The market is currently awaiting Thursday's supply and demand report from Uncle Sam. Weekly crop progress report shows corn at 71% good to excellent, 97% silking, 52% dough, and 14% dented.

Soybeans ended mixed, with nearby contracts retreating on a combination of spillover weakness from wheat, the unwinding of old/new crop spreads and farmer selling. The weakness in the nearby contracts show farmers are taking advantage of rallies to clean out remaining old crop stocks. Deferred month futures contracts representing crops to be harvested in autumn backpedaled from early session highs, but ended higher on a steady dose of export demand from China, and ongoing concerns about crops moving through their critical growth stage. However, favorable near term Midwest crop weather managed to take some edge off prices.

Tuesday August 3, 2010

2010-08-03T15:59:00.004-05:00

Good afternoon bloggers. Today corn finished down UNCH to -3 cents. Fall corn closed UNCH @ $4.04. Beans were up UNCH to +9 cents. Fall beans closed +8 cents @ $10.18. Wheat closed down -14 cents at $7.10. After last night's performance, we were unsure how the market was going to open today. Corn seemed to jump all over the board for most the day and unfortunately closed down. Beans were on positive ground for most of the day and wheat closed down. Thankfully wheat's poor performance didn't pull corn or beans down too much today.

The market appears to be driven by Black Sea area drought scares in Russia. This bullish news seemed to encourage speculators to pour more than $10 billion into corn, beans, and wheat. This is why the market has flourished in recent weeks. However fund players seem to be standing our their largest combined net long position since the first half of 2008. Fund buyers are noticing that chart patterns are looking increasingly tired. Some analysts say this is because the rally we have witness is based completely on fear, emotion, and momentum.

USDA crop report came out today and has corn pegged at 71% good/excellent condition. Beans are at 66% good/excellent condition. Weather in the Midwest seems to be good overall. There are some dry areas and wet areas, but overall producers' crop are looking good. Our Canadian brethren recently went through a harsh string of storms which brought hail and strong winds. This wiped out crops in parts of central Manitoba.

Construction in Morris is going well. The scale has been taken apart. Concrete has been ripped up around the scale and office area. Crews are working to pour more concrete on the west side of the elevator and the scale house has been gutted. Our dump shed has also been demolished and a new one will stand in it's place.

Stay classy Illinois,
Nathaniel Dubravec

Wednesday July 28, 2010

2010-07-28T15:30:00.003-05:00

MORRIS RIVER TERMINAL IS WILL BE CLOSED FOR GRAIN DELIVERIES BEGINNING AUGUST 2, 2010. REPAIRS AND IMPROVEMENTS ARE SCHEDULED TO LAST THE DURATION OF AUGUST.

Hello bloggers! Today corn, beans, and wheat posted impressive gains on the day

Fall corn +14 cents @ $3.91
Fall beans +12 cents @ $9.78
Wheat +20 cents @ $6.47

Corn closed the day UP +10 to +14 cents. Corn and all commodities were up on the day due to foreign weather concerns, Chinese purchases, and technical buying. Russia, Australia, Europe, and other regions of the world are still working with a drought. Fears of declining world stocks of grain definitely helped boost the market today. Russian agricultural analysts said the drought may nearly halve grain exports by Russia to 12 million tons in the 2010/11 crop year started on July 1 from 22 million tons in 2009/10.

Not only is Russia and other countries having troubles, this is coupled with growing Chinese demand. China purchased another 120K tons of beans from the US this morning and is suspected that the USDA underestimated the amount bought from Uncle Sam. China is raising more livestock and has a rapidly growing population. Their demand for grain has drastically increased and this demand is expected to be long term. Thought these are all major reasons for the markets to be up today, analysts suspect technical buying has been the main catalyst for stronger corn and bean values today.

Stay classy Illinois,
Nathaniel Dubravec

Tuesday, July 27th, 2010

2010-07-27T16:06:00.003-05:00

Corn and soybeans looked to stage a classic dead-cat-bounce today with corn up 4 and beans up 6 cents in the overnight trading but couldn't hold their strength in the day session. Corn closed down 1 cent with new crop beans down 1/2 cent in a day of consolidation. Fundamentally traders are playing tug-of-war with potential record US Corn and Soybeans against devastated Russian crops and below average China crops. Corn is rated at 72% G/E and the crop index is 106 vs last year's 104.5 which resulted in a record yield. Currently this is the best rated corn crop since the big one of 2004.

Corn G/E ratings
State 2009 2010
IA 80 70
NE 78 85
SD 73 76
ND 71 88
MO 59 50
KS 74 72
IL 62 65
IN 63 62
OH 72 61
MI 52 79
WI 55 79

US 70 72

Old crop corn damage has all but shut off the export system with an estimated 500 barges or 27.5 mbu of damage barges sitting on the river in New Orleans waiting for better new crop corn to blend with. The Mississippi River is also at a high enough levels after last weeks rains in IA, WI, and Northern IL to shut down 5 locks to barge traffic. It will be import for water levels to recede heading into harvest so elevators can empty out the grain already sold to the market to make room for the new crop.

Scott Meyer

Monday July 26th, 2010

2010-07-26T15:09:00.002-05:00

The absence of any significant weather threat to U.S. Midwest crops based on weather forecasts through mid August pressured corn futures prices Monday. Nearby September corn settled 7 1/4 cents lower at $3.64, and December corn ended 6 1/2 cents lower at $3.78 a bushel. The lack of a weather concern forced market participants to reduce risk exposure, as current weather forecasts support good crop production potential. Corn futures had previously rallied on outlooks for hot, dry weather and excessive rains in other parts of the U.S. crop belt to potentially undermine crop yield potential. However, extended weather forecasts do not pose a threat to production potential, enticing traders that previously bet on weather producing bullish price action to cover some previously bought positions. USDA weekly crop progress report showed corn at 72% good to excellent, down 1% from last week.

Wednesday July 21, 2010

2010-07-21T15:46:00.002-05:00

***Morris River Terminal will be closed August for grain delivery due to updating the facility and new scale.***

Good afternoon bloggers! Today the market up and firm on the close.

Nearby corn +6 cents $3.80
Fall corn +6 cents $3.93

Nearby beans +3 cents $10.15
Fall beans +5 cents $9.78

Nearby wheat +11 cents $5.88

Today wheat led the charge and corn and beans followed suit. Technical buying seemed to be the 'name of the game' today and trade attempted to make up for the slip in the market the past few days. Corn and beans tried a few times to break the 5-6 cent range, but were both held to modest gains due to a very favorable weather outlook for the Corn Belt. There was a rumor circulating about the market that the Chinese purchased another 2-3 cargoes of US beans. There has been no confirmation as of yet on the purchase. The Gulf is bidding steady on beans at +95 cents over the August contract. Gulf corn is also steady at +35 cents over the July contract. Morris river corn basis has firmed a few cents as well and cash corn is $3.52.

Argentina is the number 2 corn supplier in the world following the USA. Argentina trimmed its bean planting estimates by 3%. Brazil seemed to get the memo and increased their bean estimates by 3%. Argentina also is on the list of top world wheat producers. Argentina farmers have produced less wheat than usual of the last 2 years due to the economy and weather conditions. Farmers continue to have issues in regards to Argentina wheat harvest. The USDA has US wheat production pegged at12 mil. tonnes for the 2010/11 forecast.

The Morris Terminal has been busy lately. We were taking wheat a few weeks ago and were able to complete a wheat barge. Beans and corn have been the usual as of late. Over the past few weeks, damaged grain has slowly been creeping up and we are working our very best to help producers out. Many elevators (including our river competition) have rejected loads greater than 5% damage. If you have any questions in regards to handling grain, discount schedules, or merchandising please do not hesitate to call. We will do our best to accommodate you

Stay classy Illinois,
Nathaniel Dubravec

Tuesday July 20th, 2010

2010-07-20T16:09:00.002-05:00

Corn was under pressure from the open and traded lower all day in light volume closing down 7 cents. Funds sold an estimated 8000 contracts today and have sold an est. 18,000 contracts this week. Weather forecasts are maintaining no ridge of hot dry for the next 2 weeks. Large amounts of moisture have been reported in S Iowa, N Missouri and southern half of Illinois over the last 48 hrs. Poor ethanol margins, poor quality, and large producer selling since July 1st have all weighed on corn basis especially the Illinois River system. Currently at Morris there is 33 cents of carry built in from nearby to Dec 1st!

Soybeans made their daily low early on and bounced back modestly to close 3 cents higher. Funds were actually net buyers as the USDA announced another 115,000 MT of new crop beans sold to China. Soybean basis has remained firm with exports continuing to be loaded out and old crop stocks being fairly tight. We are getting to that time of year when end users will be counting down the days until new crop and trying to guess when they can break the basis and premium they are paying for old crop.

Scott Meyer

Friday July 16, 2010

2010-07-16T14:52:00.002-05:00

Corn closed firm on Friday on concerns about some forecasts for hotter and drier weather in the United States in late July and August kept away aggressive selling and lifted corn to a firm close. The world is enduring the hottest year on record, according to a U.S. national weather analysis, causing droughts worldwide and a concern for U.S. farmers counting on another bumper year.

Soybean futures ended mostly lower Friday, as the market consolidated in choppy trade following the week's sharp run-up in prices. The market staged a modest correction from Thursday's 2% gains, with traders reducing risk exposure heading into the weekend.

Wednesday July 14, 2010

2010-07-14T14:23:00.002-05:00

Good afternoon bloggers! Today's heat index of 93 degrees tells me it's summer. Not only was the temperature a high for the area, the markets also finished up on the day. Corn, beans, and wheat were all up. Corn was up 6-9 cents. Beans were up 2-7 cents. Wheat was up 2-10 cents.

Nearby corn +9 cents @ $3.84
Fall corn +9 cents @ $3.96

Nearby beans +2 @ $9.97
Fall beans up +7 @ $9.62

Wheat +10 @ $5.59

Fund buying, weak US dollar, and lack of producer movement supported the market today. Technical buying was 'egged on' by a weak US dollar for most of the trading session. The market saw a nice rally last week, but not enough to shake producer bushels loose. It appears that there is still quite a bit of grain in producers' hands and they are waiting to see how far the rally can take them. There was also some talk this morning of China showing interest purchasing more US corn. Last year, China had a difficult time with crops. This contributed to over 1 million tons of corn from the US to China which was the largest in 15 years.

I think another reason for corn, beans, and wheat to find the green today was based on fears of weather. Europe, Ukraine, and regions of Russia are going through a tough time right with hot and dry weather. Forecasts for European wheat is down, Russia is going through a drought, and Canada is receiving too much rain. Though the Midwest has received a lot of rain in pockets across the region, the weather outlook is looking good for crops in the coming weeks. Rain is expected this evening and tomorrow. The weekend is looking clear and we shouldn't see rain until the middle of next week.

The Gulf is bidding +40 to +44 cents for US #2 corn. US #1 soybeans are getting bought at +92 to +98.

Stay classy Illinois,
Nathaniel Dubravec

Tuesday July 13th, 2010

2010-07-13T15:27:00.002-05:00

The corn market today suffered from a better than expected crop condition rating of 73% G/E last evening when many traders thought the number would come in around 69-70%. Corn finished the day down 4.5 cents on the CBOT with cash corn on the Illinois river down 6-7 cents with a weaker basis. Barge freight has jumped about 80 pts all the way up to and over 400% with increased demand to move out the old crop ahead of good looking new crop. Corn ratings for this week are the highest since the record crop of 2004 with only Iowa lower than last year's record production. Corn pollination seems to be progressing nicely throughout the Midwest with temps staying in the 85-95 range and no 100+ readings in the corn belt. There is scattered talk of dry conditions popping up in the Eastern corn belt and that will be closely monitored as forecasts call for the highest temps of the year next week.

Soybean ratings were down another 1% and sit at 65% G/E providing support to new crop beans as they were up 3.5 cents and basis continues to be very strong on old and new crop. Not surprising, the rain plagued states of Iowa and Missouri have the worst rated beans at 69% and 44% respectively.

Wheat led the way higher today as serious concerns arise over drought and extreme heat in the former Soviet Union. We have seen reports that this year's drought is surpassed by only 5 out of the last 100 years! Locally, wheat harvest has almost finished with poor results on both yield and test weight.

Scott Meyer

Monday July 12th, 2010

2010-07-12T15:42:00.002-05:00

Corn ended lower Monday as benign weather forecasts ease concerns about the U.S. crop. The market was lower throughout the session, and likely needs a weather scare to extend its recent rally. But forecasts call for average temperatures and adequate rainfall over the next few days. The crop is entering its crucial pollination phase in many areas, which goes a long way to determining a crop's yield. Technically, after the December contract failed to break through its May high on Friday, the market's upward momentum seems to be waning. One said that the 200-day moving average at $4.02 1/2 will be tough to pierce unless we start to have some serious problems with the crop. Crop progress report shows corn at 73% good to excellent, traders were expecting a slight decrease.

Soybeans ended mixed on Monday as old-crop contracts gained for an eighth straight session on tight supplies and deferred months fell due to weather speculation and some light profit-taking. You still have tight stocks, which is giving us the stronger up-front bean market, but at the same time harvest is not far away.

USDA Update: 07/09/10

2010-07-09T07:47:00.002-05:00

The USDA report on corn this morning turned out to be relatively uneventful as the end effect was to reduce ending stocks for this year by 125 mbu with next year ending stocks down 200 mbu. These were despite a bullish June 30 Stocks and acreage report where acres were 1.4 million below trade estimates and June 1 grain stocks were 300 mbu below expectations. Corn production for this year is estimated at 13.245 billion bushels using a 163.5 bpa yield estimate. The only major change on demand for the 2010 crop year was a 50 mbu reduction in exports to 1.95 billion, equal to the current year. Feed usage for the 2009 crop year was increased 175 while use for ethanol saw a surprising reduction of 50 mbu. Early calls as of 8:00 seems to be 3 - 10 lower for the corn market.

The soybean report didn't really didn't do much as carryout levels were largely left unchanged with production up 35 mbu for 2010 to account for the increased acres reported June 30 with an increase in both crush and exports to leave expected Sept. 1 2011 carryout at 360 mbu. World soybean numbers don't seem to have a significant impact at this point. The soybean market is expected to be a follower today, early calls are 10 - 20 lower.

If we trade higher it’ll be because of weather concerns and outside markets, not today's report. Most commodities traded and closed already over 100 day moving averages and that could stimulate more short covering by trend following funds as they’re modestly short corn and beans. If they want to push a long we’ll end up higher today.

Phil

Wednesday July 7th, 2010

2010-07-07T15:43:00.002-05:00

Corn closed higher on Wednesday on fresh fund buying, and a decline in U.S. condition ratings boosted corn as did lingering support from last week's bullish USDA acreage and stocks reports. September corn closed up 10-1/4 cents at $3.78-1/4 per bushel. Funds bought an estimated 12,000 contracts. Talk China bought a cargo each of old and new-crop U.S. corn supportive. Higher crude oil also lent support.

Analyst are also expecting that the USDA is not likely to change its U.S. corn yield estimate in Friday's crop report despite a strong start to the 2010 growing season, grain analysts said on Wednesday. USDA is already forecasting the national average corn yield for this year to come in at 163.5 bushels per acre, just below the record 164.7 bpa achieved in 2009.

Chris Spurlock

Tuesday July 6th, 2010

2010-07-06T15:50:00.002-05:00

Crop conditions out today with expected declines in both Corn and Soybeans. The national corn crop rating was down 2% from 73 to 71 good/excellent while soybeans lost 1% from 67-66. Interestingly both crops are rated exactly the same as last year at this time. It looks like those of us in Northern Illinois have been dealt a better hand this year. Wheat harvest has gradually made it's way up to our area but with SRW planting acres down 60% from last year and arguably down much more than that in our area it is hard to get a handle on how fast or slow acres are coming out.

Corn started the day up 6-7 cents on bullish outside markets, a new crop bean sale to China and concerns over European wheat in France and Russia but slowly traded lower throughout the day and finished down 4-5 cents. Corn weather seems to be all over the board with western corn belt generally too wet (Des Moines IA having 200% of avg precip from May 1 - July 4), Delta way too dry (Pine Bluff AR having 52% of avg precip from May -July), and Eastern Corn belt just about right (Champaign IL having 125% of avg from May-July). The absence of extreme heat in any of the long term forecasts should provide a long window for most corn acres to pollinate regardless of their moisture situation.

Soybeans were identical to corn today in that they started 10 cents higher and slowly eroded down to close down 6 cents. Soybean ratings at 66% G/E should provide support to prices as many western belt areas have had a horrible time getting beans planted and southern Delta regions are hanging on by a thread waiting for moisture.

Please continue to monitor any old crop corn in the bin as quality issues can pop up at any time.

Scott Meyer

2010-07-02T16:51:00.000-05:00

Note: **All facilities will be closed on Monday, July 5, 2010 in observance of Independence Day.
*Corn Products in Chicago will be open at 5 AM Tuesday, July 6, 2010.
*Elburn Coop in Morris will be open for corn, soybeans and wheat on Tuesday, July 6, 2010.
*Elburn Coop in Ottawa will be open for corn on Tuesday, July 6, 2010.

In today’s trading, corn futures were down while soybean and wheat futures were generally higher. September corn finished down ¾ for the day and up 23 for the week. Bullishness from Wednesday’s acreage report that rallied corn prices the last two days couldn’t carry into Friday’s pre-holiday trade. August soybeans closed up 7 ½ today and up 3 ½ for the week. New crop Nov beans were up a ¼ today but, down 6 for the week. September Chicago wheat futures were 3 ¼ higher today and up 32 for the week. Wheat fundamentals are little changed but, fund buying is dictating that market. Export sales out yesterday were generally as expected but, yet disappointing. Corn sales failed to reach the million ton mark for the first time in several weeks and new sales to China were absent in this week’s report. China was an active buyer of both old and new crop soybeans. New sales of soybean oil to China were announced yesterday by the USDA’s daily reporting system. In outside markets, stocks finished a dismal week with the Dow and S&P 500 down again today. The Dow and S&P 500 indices were down every day this week. Crude oil futures were down $0.81 per barrel.

National average on highway diesel fuel prices were 0.5 cents lower in this week’s report. Crude oil prices declined today but, finished in the lower 70’s per barrel which probably won’t provide much direction for fuel prices. Crude stocks declined slightly this week while distillate and gasoline stocks were up.

Have a great weekend!
Mike Etienne

Wednesday June 30, 2010

2010-06-30T14:43:00.005-05:00

Factoid of the day: In 1778 Gen. George Washington marked July 4 with a double ration or rum for his soldiers and an artillery salute.

Good afternoon bloggers! Today was a great day for the market. Immediately after opening corn shot up to +30 cents and floated around that most of the day. Nearby corn closed +29 cents at $3.63. Fall corn closed +29 cents at $3.74. Though corn was able to jump 30 cents and hold it, soybeans were unable to hold on to its early bounce into positive ground. Nearby beans hit $9.54 early in the day, but closed down half a penny at $9.31. Fall beans didn't perform any better and closed at $9.02 down -7 cents. Nearby wheat was up +23 cents and closed at $4.80.

Today's USDA report took everyone by surprise. I think the only people that tell you otherwise are telling the yarn of a century. The bullish report today was exactly what we needed to see after a 7 straight negative trading sessions and after hitting an 8-month low. The knee jerk reaction was very friendly and showed that the market desperately needed corn. Soybean stocks(571mil. bu.) were 21 million bushels lower than last report (592mil. bu.)and is the smallest since 2004. Though soybeans stocks were down, soybean acreage was up 600K acres. This could explain why new crop beans were down for a good portion of the day, but nearby beans slowly bled the cents it gained early.

Corn had both bullish stock and acreage numbers. Corn was down 303 million bushels since the last report and was down 1.4 million acres since the last report as well. This is one of the reasons corn was expected to open, stay, and close at +20 to 30 cents. Hopefully the upward momentum will carry over into tonight and tomorrow for corn and the other commodities. It would be nice to see beans perform well tomorrow, but only time will tell.

I hope you all have a fun and safe Fourth of July weekend!

Don't tread on me,
Nathaniel Dubravec

Wednesday June 30, 2010

2010-06-30T07:56:00.003-05:00

Good morning! The USDA report is bullish and looking good. Corn acreage is amazingly lower than what was originally expected. Corn acres were expected to be around 89.3 million acres. USDA reported the acres at 87.9 million acres. Though corn acres were down, bean acres were over 500K higher than expected. Corn acres were down and bean acres were up.

Corn and bean stocks were very bullish. Reports show that we have less corn and beans than expected. Corn stocks were expected to be at 4.6 billion bushels. USDA report has that pegged at 4.3 billion bushels. Beans were expected to be at 592 million bushels. USDA report has that pegged at 571 million bushels. Very bullish. Both corn and beans are called higher this morning.

ACRES
USDA Wednesday Expected
Corn 87.872 Million 89.302
Beans 78.868 78.292

US STOCKS
USDA Wednesday Expected
Corn 4.310 Billion 4.613
Beans 0.571 0.592
Wheat 0.973 0.938

Today's numbers definitely took everyone by surprise. It's going to be very interesting how the market responds to these bullish figures. Have a great day!

Nathaniel Dubravec

Tuesday June 29, 2010

2010-06-29T15:46:00.004-05:00

Good afternoon friends! Today the name of the game was a stronger US dollar and weak outside markets. This proved to be an uphill battle for commodities. Corn, beans, and wheat all posted loses in anticipation for Wednesday's USDA report. Corn closed -7 to -9 today. Fall corn finished the day at $3.44. Beans closed -6 to -9 as well. Fall beans are at $9.12. Beans gave an honest effort around mid-day today, but eventually any upward momentum eventually dissipated. 'Turnaround Tuesday' did not hold up to its expectations. Hopefully we can get a 'Worthwhile Wednesday' following the report and regain some of what was lost today.

Fresh news before the market opened this morning was that China purchased 230K tons of beans for 2010/11. China's quarantine authority has allowed use for the first cargo of USA GMO corn in 4 years for feed production. Cargill also sold 55K tons of corn to South Korea. Weather forecasts continue to look great overall for the Corn Belt. This has allowed for a sub-par weather premium and a few cents to erode from the market. Crop conditions are still looking good overall for Illinois even with the amount of rain we have been getting. Some producers are dealing with water and some wind damage from last week's storms that raced across most of Illinois.

Expectations for tomorrow's USDA report have this years corn plantings at 89.2 million acres. This figure is half a million acres great from the March USDA Planting Intentions Report (PIR). Bean plantings are estimated to be around 78.1 million acres. That is nearly 100K acres more since the March USDA PIR.

The Gulf is bidding firmer today for June and July corn to try and shake some bushels loose. Producer movement and sell off has been slow because of the market deteriorating the past week. The Illinois River water levels have dropped a few feet since last week and has not halted loading this week. It appears that the next few days of dry sunny weather will only encourage water levels to drop even further to a somewhat normal level.

Stay classy Illinois,
Nathaniel Dubravec

Monday June 28th, 2010

2010-06-28T16:00:00.002-05:00

Corn futures fell for the sixth straight day Monday, ending at its lowest price since October as favorable weather forecasts fuel talk of a record crop. Nearby July corn ended down 6 3/4 cents to $3.33 3/4 bushel. The market broke below the previous bear-market low of $3.35, maintaining the bearish technical momentum that has driven the market in its current slump. The key bearish factor, were weather forecasts calling for dry weather across the U.S. corn belt this week. That is exactly what farmers need at the end of a June that dumped excessive rains in many areas. Along with the dry weather, moderate temperatures are expected, which eases any concern traders might have about a heat wave stressing the crop during its pollination period, which typically kicks into gear in July. Pollination is a crucial period during the crop's reproductive cycle that establishes its yield potential.

After a fast start to the growing season, more traders are now talking about yields exceeding last year's record of 164.7 bushels per acre. The U.S.D.A. recently projected a national yield of 163.5 bushels per acre. The current perception in Chicago is that all is well, and that a 170-bushel crop is all but in the bin.

2010-06-25T16:38:00.000-05:00

Note: Corn Products in Chicago will be open at 5 AM MONDAY June 28, 2010.
Elburn Coop in Morris will be open for corn and soybeans on Monday, June 28, 2010.
Elburn Coop in Ottawa will be open for corn on Monday, June 28, 2010.

Export sales for corn were again strong this week surpassing 1 million metric tons for the 3rd week in a row. Soybeans were as expected. Quarterly Hogs and Pigs Report today showed a 4% decrease in inventory compared to last year at this time. Lower than expected. Some have said this supports the theory that USDA’s feed use number for corn may have to be adjusted down. Corn and wheat were pressured today on a lack of threatening weather on the horizon. Ironically beans were supported by excessively wet conditions in parts of the Midwest and dry conditions in the south. 5 million acres of soybeans are estimated to still be unplanted. Rumors of old crop soybean sales to China were also supportive.

In today’s trading, corn and wheat futures were down while soybean futures traded slightly higher. July corn finished a lackluster week down 4 ¼ today and down 20 ½ for the week. July soybeans closed up 1 ½ today but, down 4 for the week. July Chicago wheat futures were 6 ¾ lower on the day to finish the week down 5 1/2 . Outside markets for equities and crude oil were slightly higher today. Crude oil was up $2 per barrel earlier but, leveled off at the end.

National average on highway diesel fuel prices rose 3.3 cents in this week’s report ending a 5 week string of lower results. Crude oil prices jumped today and have been staying in the mid to upper 70’s in recent weeks which could cause fuel prices to inch up. Crude and distillate stocks rose slightly this week while gasoline stocks fell slightly similar to last week.

Have a great weekend!
Mike Etienne

2010-06-23T14:22:00.004-05:00

Good afternoon bloggers! Today corn and soybeans were on the defensive and were in the red all day. Soybeans closed -7 to -12 cents today and corn closed -5 to -6 cents. Nearby corn closed at $3.46 and fall corn finished at $3.65. Nearby soybeans finished at $9.58 and fall soybeans closed at $9.23.

Corn continued its slide today as weather and anticipation of a bumper crop. Soybeans didn't perform any better today, but wheat was able to post a gentleman's gain of +1 cent. Canadian weather concerns appear to be the contributing reason for US soft red winter wheat/ Canadian wheat to close in the green. Wheat continues to be the focus in the Canadian commodity realm.

Reports of soybean (and corn) futures posting losses are due to an overall favorable Midwestern weather outlook. I guess 'overall' is the key word in those reports. My understanding is that producers have received too much rain. This rain caused some worries today with river traffic on certain stretches of the Mississippi River. High water halted some traffic, but is not expected to pose much of an issue. The Mississippi River is crucial for the movement of grain. 55-65% of all US corn, soybeans, and wheat exports are shipped out of the Gulf of Mexico.

Corn condition is down 3% from last week. Soybean condition is down 4% from last week. Well over the 5 year average (63%) at 69%.

Stay classy Illinois,
Nathaniel Dubravec

Tuesday June 22, 2010

2010-06-22T15:28:00.002-05:00

Turn-around-Tuesday failed to materialize today. The corn Market finished down 3.5 cents as an improved drier and cooler extended weather forecast looks ideal for the end of June and beginning of July for a crop that currently has lots of moisture and above normal GDU's. I have been hearing many producers that are targeting harvest to occur a full month ahead of last year,with some hinting at corn coming out in September. Monday afternoon's crop condition report showed corn G/E down 2 pts as Illinois lost 3, Iowa 1, Nebraska 3 due to extremely wet conditions. It looks like Nebraska, Iowa, Illinois, and Indiana will all break records for June precipitation at month's end. The first boat bought in 4 years has been approved by China government agencies and the unloading process started today!

Soybeans, old crop held it's own today and finished up 2 cents with new crop down 3. Soybean ratings took a big hit last week as nationwide we lost 4 points of G/E fields with Illinois dn 6, Iowa dn 6, North Dakota dn 5, and Minnesota dn 4 due to very wet weather. It should also be noted that 7% of soybeans still need to be planted.

Corn basis continues to move in opposite of futures with declines in the last 2 days on the CBOT leading to tighter corn basis. Soybean basis is all over the board with processors paying big premiums over the river markets.

Scott Meyer

2010-06-18T16:43:00.001-05:00

Note: Corn Products in Chicago will be closed MONDAY June 21, 2010. They will re-open at 5AM , June 22, 2010.

Elburn Coop in Morris will be open for corn and soybeans on Monday, June 21, 2010.
Elburn Coop in Ottawa will be open for corn on Monday, June 21, 2010.

Export sales were generally uneventful yesterday for corn and soybeans. Corn did top the 1 million ton mark which was supportive to corn. Previously reported sale of 120,000 metric tons of corn to China showed up in the report as expected. Soybean sales were negative but, this was caused by a decrease in sales to Japan that offset the large sale last week that was questioned. Additional sales of soybean oil to China and new crop soybeans to unknown destinations (likely China) were reported today. Cattle on Feed report out today showed a 1% increase in total on cattle on feed and a 23% increase in placements from last year. Fed Cattle marketings were the lowest for the month of May since the report started in 1996. The report was about as the market expected. US EPA let it be known that they would not have a decision on increased ethanol blends is gasoline until this fall. They are waiting on test results data from the Department of Energy before making a determination. This data is expected to out around the end of September. Soybean basis continues to be strong nearby. We continue to offer free DP until October 15, 2010 for soybeans in storage or delivered to Elburn Coop facilities.

A strong storm moved through our area this afternoon with high winds and heavy rain lasting about a half hour. Have heard reports of hail and power outage but, haven’t heard any reports of significant damage thus far.

In today’s trading, corn and soybean futures were up at the close while wheat was down slightly. July corn finished up 3 ¼ for the day and up 11 ½ for the week. July soybeans closed up 9 today and up 14 for the week. July Chicago wheat futures finished 1 lower on the day but, up 21 for the week. Outside markets for equities and crude oil were slightly higher today with little new news to move them.

National average on highway diesel fuel prices were lower for the fifth week in a row dropping 1.8 cents in the latest report. Crude oil prices have recovered to the mid 70’s per barrel in recent weeks which could cause fuel prices to inch up or at least stop falling. Crude and distillate stocks rose slightly this week while gasoline stocks fell slightly. Stocks of all three products are historically high but, gasoline is moving closer to its average seasonal range where crude and diesel are not.

Have a great weekend!
Mike Etienne

Wednesday June 16, 2010

2010-06-16T14:44:00.005-05:00

Good afternoon bloggers! Today the market found itself on positive ground again. Futures rallied today propelled by more China talk and wet weather concerns for Canada and USA. Corn was up +1-2 cents. Fall corn was up +2 cents. Soybeans were up +5-9 cents. Fall soybeans were up +9 cents. Cash corn is $3.46. Cash soybeans are $9.67.

The market the past few days has been performing well. Planting delays and issues in Canada, weak USA currency, China looking for beans, and biofuel blend talks are all playing a role. The most talk that I have heard in regards to Canadian crops has been in the news lately. Planting delays and problems with crops (especially oats) has been turning heads. The USA dollar was weaker during mid-day trading and is currently up .18%. I heard talk that earlier this week China was interested in South American soybeans due to a much better bid vs. USA Gulf market/ Pacific North West market (P.N.W.). Today there was more talk of a biofuel blend bill. Currently, reports are estimating that Congress does not have enough votes for a biofuel blend increase. May 2010 was the warmest on record.

There have been wet weather problems in wheat growing areas near Omaha, NE. Regions in northeastern China have mostly been hot and dry. There was an absence of fresh news from the outside markets today.

New Orleans bids have been firm this week. The Gulf of Mexico is bidding +45 for July corn and +63 cents for July soybeans. Though these bids are firm, the PNW has been drawing grain away from the Gulf. Earlier today the PNW was bidding +80 cents for July corn. The Illinois River appears to have crested and did not give us any trouble with loading barges today. This is the highest I remember the river being since the snow melt months ago.

Stay classy Illinois,
Nathaniel Dubravec

Tuesday, June 15th 2010

2010-06-15T16:10:00.002-05:00

With corn futures unchanged in a day of consolidating after 3 pretty impressive days up and soybeans also uneventful at -2 cents, a trader has to get his excitement from OATS! Oat futures on the CBOT are up 80 cents in 5 days! That is a 30% increase due to very very wet conditions across the Canadian prairie. Will this have an effect on corn and soybean futures, well if today was any indication that would be a very loud NO. What this does show is that with July and Aug weather just around the corner, anything I truly believe anything can happen. With uncertain volatility in the market, it is a good idea to talk to a grain merchandiser and ask them how you can limit your down-side risk on new crop corn and beans while leaving some room for the upside.

Warmer drier weather is forecast for the next 2 weeks and almost all of the corn belt would love to see this come true.

Monday June 14th, 2010

2010-06-14T15:37:00.002-05:00

Corn futures rallied Monday, climbing near 2-week highs on fresh export demand, Chinese weather concerns and borrowed strength from other markets. The confirmation of new sales of U.S. corn to China provided a fundamental boost for prices, with concerns that dry conditions in east-central China could raise the prospects for additional China purchases attracting buyers. USDA released their weekly Crop Progress report tonight, corn improved 1% to 77% good to excellent. Outside markets continue to be supportive with crude oil up a $1/bbl today and the dollar down again today. Concerns are starting to develop that low quality wheat this year will compete with corn and cause it to remain at lower levels in order to stay competitive.

Soybean futures climbed today, rallying to 1-month intraday highs on support from a sinking U.S. dollar, and advances in broader markets. Outside financial markets provided a spark to attract buyers, as optimistic outlooks for the global economy made some investors less risk sensitive. The July future rose to its highest point since May 14, with technical buying accelerating advances once the contract eclipsed resistance at the June 4 high. Meanwhile, underlying strength was noted from concerns about seeding problems for Canadian canola.

2010-06-11T16:24:00.001-05:00

Note: Corn Products in Chicago will be closed MONDAY AND TUESDAY, June 14-15, 2010. They will re-open at 5AM Wednesday, June 16, 2010.

Elburn Coop in Morris will be open for corn and soybeans on Monday, June 14, 2010.
Elburn Coop in Ottawa will be open for corn on Monday, June 14, 2010.

Commodity news was generally supportive today. News that China’s main grain buyer (COFCO) bought another 3 cargoes of US corn gave corn traders some ammunition out of the gate. Word from the Canadian Wheat Board that between 8.5 to 12.5 million acres of all crops might not get planted there supported wheat futures late and spread into corn and soybean markets also. Traders are still digesting Thursday’s USDA supply and demand report where corn used for ethanol was increased significantly which lowered carryout in the current and next crop year. I have seen speculation that part of the reason for the increased corn use estimate is the US government will promote renewable fuels more heavily in the aftermath of the oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico. ADM formally requested US EPA to allow 12% ethanol gasoline blends this week. Good timing on their part. Weather conditions are generally good but, there are some areas that have seen too much rain recently. This has limited soybean planting in those areas and hampered growth of crops already in the ground. Export sales were generally good yesterday (and much improved from last week) for corn and soybeans. However no new corn sales to China appeared and an unusually large (for this time of year) amount of 2009/10 soybean sales to Japan has been questioned. Weather forecasts favorable for crop development and potential for a very large corn crop provide resistance for corn prices. Large amounts of imported soybeans at Chinese ports has caused China to cancel several cargoes of soybeans from South America. Though US stocks of old crop soybeans are tight, lack of Chinese buying interest in the world market limits any rally of soybean prices. Locally soybean basis continues to be strong nearby (and inverted). We continue to offer free DP until October 15, 2010 for soybeans in storage or delivered to Elburn Coop facilities.

In today’s trading, grain and soybean futures were all positive at the close. July corn finished up 6 ¼ for the day and up 9 ½ for the week. July soybeans closed up 11 ¼ and up 11 ½ for the week. July Chicago wheat futures finished 7 ½ higher today and up 5 for the week. Outside markets for equities and crude oil were generally weaker most of the day with disappointing retail sales being reported this morning. Equities did recover to post a gain late.

National average on highway diesel fuel prices were lower for the fourth week in a row dropping 3.4 cents in the latest report. Crude oil prices stayed in a narrow range recently and this should limit fuel prices for the time being. Crude stocks dropped slightly this week while gasoline stocks were steady and distillate (diesel) stocks rose slightly. Stocks of all three products are historically high.

Have a great weekend!
Mike Etienne

USDA Update: 06/10/10

2010-06-10T07:59:00.002-05:00

USDA crop report released at 7:30 am today, market calls are 10 - 15 higher for corn and soybeans.

The big news in today's report is on increased corn demand for ethanol production. USDA increased the 2009/10 crop ethanol usage to 4.55 bbu. up from 4.4 bbu. Total corn demand is forecast up 135 incorporating a slight reduction in corn feed usage. For the 2010/11 crop year USDA increased the ethanol portion of corn demand by 100 mbu to 4.7 bbu.

World corn numbers were uneventful so the net impact of the reports today is a reduced U.S. corn carryout estimate to 1.6 bbu for this year and 1.573 bbu for next year which is a 245 mbu reduction from the May estimate. USDA did not change production estimates for 2010 corn or soybeans this month.

The soybean report didn't give a lot to trade on as soybean crush for meal/oil was increased 5 mbu but no other changes were noted, ending stocks are now estimated at 185 mbu. The world soybean numbers didn't change much either with a .6 million ton reduction in the Chinese soybean crop the only adjustment of any significance.

In other news the weekly export sales report showed great improvement over last week for corn and soybeans with corn sales at 40.1 and 5.6 for old and new crop respectively and soybeans at 15.5 and 4.8 mbu. Both commodities weekly sales figures were above expectations and should lend to the higher grain market calls.

Phil Farrell

Wednesday June 9, 2010

2010-06-09T13:37:00.003-05:00

Fact of the day: In 2009, corn was valued at $42 billion and soybeans were valued at $32 billion.

Good evening bloggers! Today the board positively responded with a +1-2 cent bounce in corn and a mighty 1-12 cent rally in soybeans. Weaker dollar and stronger outside markets seemed to play a role in today's rally.

Producers have not been completely convinced by the board's weak performance as of late. Though the basis has been firm for both corn and soybeans, producers have been reluctant to let go of any corn or soybeans left in their possession. Hopefully today's momentum will carryover into tonight and tomorrow and bring prices up. The river basis has been firming due to the lack of farmer movement, but the ethanol processors' basis has been deteriorating as well. We are looking forward to a USDA report coming out tomorrow (Thursday). We are not expecting too much of a change in corn and soybean stocks, but you should keep an eye on the import/export numbers. Crop conditions have not changed except for a 3% increase in 'excellent condition'.

Nearby corn was up +1 cent and closed at $3.38. Nearby soybeans were up +12 cents and closed at $9.43. July futures rose 2 cents on the CBOT. This is the second straight gain. Prior to today, a rise in supplies caused for a 19% price decline. Earlier this week when the market rallied, the market fell the following day. Let's hope and pray that the CBOT will continue to rally throughout the night and into tomorrow. The weather continues to look great for Illinois and the rest of the corn belt. We had a scare that the Illinois River was going to rise quite a bit, but thankfully the rain missed us. We will be able to continue to load barges without worrying about the river rising for a while now. Have a good evening.

Stay classy Illinois,
Nathaniel Dubravec

Tuesday June 8th, 2010

2010-06-08T16:01:00.002-05:00

Corn up 1.5, soybeans dn 4.0 today as the markets seem to find some support at least in the corn market. The weather continues to dominate trade talk which has been bearish. Are there areas where soybeans can not be finished planting and corn is suffering from too much wet weather, yes. Are there way more areas that are benefiting from above normal temps, early planting, and adequate moisture, again answer is yes. The national corn crop is rated 76% G/E with Minnesota at a record 92%, Nebraska 85% but eastern corn belt states lagging from too much moisture. The 76% national G/E is the 3rd best in the last 23 years.

Soybeans couldn't hold their ground today as the crop ratings of 75% G/E is best rated crop for this time in the last 24 years! New crop November 2010 futures dropped below $9.00 for first time since October of last year. USDA monthly crop report out Thursday morning and extended weather forecast should point direction of futures nearby.

3 tenths of rain in the gauge here at the Sycamore office so far today with more in the works for tonight.

Scott Meyer

Monday June 7th, 2010

2010-06-07T15:04:00.002-05:00

Corn continued on its downward slide today, closing down over 4 cents. In the past 6 trading days corn has lost 10%, the largest drop since January as the prospects of favorable weather conditions, rising dollar and falling crude pushed it lower. The USDA weekly crop progress report showed good to excellent rating of 76%, unchanged from last week, analyst were looking for a 1% to 3% improvement this week.

Soybeans ended the session fairly flat, as prices were unable to launch an aggressive push in either direction amid lack of news as well. The USDA reported their first weekly crop conditions for soybeans tonight at 75% good to excellent, analyst were predicting between 65% to 75%.

Heavy thunderstorms focus on key areas of the Corn Belt through Wednesday, further boosting topsoil moisture for sufficiently moist vegetative corn. A notably warmer pattern begins later this week and affects the Corn Belt, but dryness does not coincide with warmth as thunderstorms redevelop during the weekend.

Chris Spurlock

2010-06-04T15:55:00.001-05:00

Note: Corn Products in Chicago will be closed MONDAY AND TUESDAY, June 7-8, 2010. They will re-open at 5AM Wednesday, June 9, 2010.

Elburn Coop in Morris will be open for corn and soybeans on Monday, June 7, 2010.
Elburn Coop in Ottawa will be open for corn on Monday, June 7, 2010.

Friday turned out to be an avalanche of bad news for markets across the board. Export sales for grains and soybeans were disappointing this week. Corn was a marketing year low and no new sales to China appeared. Markets outside of grains were also down hard. Employment data showed a good number of jobs created but, almost all were attributed to the US Census and are temporary. The Euro hit a 4 year low against the USDollar and Hungary joined the list of European countries with potential debt problems. It would be hard to name a country that doesn’t have debt problems at this point. Equity and crude oil markets dropped further after grain markets closed setting the stage for a weak opening Sunday night absent new developments. On top of all of that, corn belt weather looks ideal for crop development the next week to 10 days. There are some rumblings of a hotter, drier ridge settling in later but, it is not the most likely scenario at this point.

In today’s trading, grain and soybean futures were all down hard at the close. July corn finished down 9 ½ for the day leaving it down 19 cents for week (29 cents over two weeks). July soybeans closed down 20 today but, only down 3 for the week. July Chicago wheat futures finished 6 lower today and down 22 for the week. The bright spot for producers (if there is one in this market) is strong soybean basis. We are posted +.095 SN at Morris tonight. We are currently offering free DP until October 15, 2010 for soybeans in storage or delivered to Elburn Coop facilities.

National average on highway diesel fuel prices dropped for the third week in a row dropping 4.1 cents the latest report. Crude oil prices slumped along with other markets today with all of the negative economic news. This should limit fuel prices for the time being. Crude and gasoline stocks dropped slightly this week while distillate (diesel) stocks rose slightly. Stocks of all three products are historically high. Still watch for any developing weather disturbance in the Gulf of Mexico to inject fear of supply disruption into the market.

Have a great weekend!
Mike Etienne

Tuesday June 1, 2010

2010-06-01T16:03:00.002-05:00

Carry over selling from last week along with almost perfect weather has put pressure on both corn and soybean futures. Corn down 5 cents, soybeans dn 5 cents, and wheat dn 7 cents today. Outside markets were also on the defensive today with crude dn $1.95 and the DOW off 112 pts.

Crop conditions released this afternoon by the USDA concur with local excellent looking crop as Corn good/excellent up 5 pts to 76% vs 70% ly. Illinois was actually down 1 pt to 76% G/E but every other state did improve significantly.

Soybean crop planted report showed the US at 74% this week vs 53% last week and 63% last year. The average pace for this week is 75%.

The nearby basis levels have been firming for the past week with soybeans at the river tonight +.035 and corn river -.09 with Corn Products leading at +.02. Producer selling of soybeans has been very very light over the past couple of weeks. I would like to point out to those of you with old crop soybeans that the cash market is paying a premium for old vs new example Morris nearby bid of 9.355 and fall delivery 8.655, don't miss out on the premium as some day down the road those will come together. June corn contracts will keep the pipeline full for this first week but without a board rally, I would suspect corn basis to stay steady or improve slightly. With the limited selling and ever changing basis levels, it is always good to put grain offers in with your local merchandiser, you never know what might happen throughout the day.

Scott Meyer

2010-05-28T16:29:00.000-05:00

Note: Elburn Coop – Morris, Elburn Coop – Ottawa and Corn Products in Chicago will be closed Monday, May 31, 2010 in observance of the Memorial Day holiday.

Corn Products in Chicago will re-open at 5AM Tuesday, June 1, 2010.
Elburn Coop in Morris will be open for corn and soybeans on Tuesday, June 1, 2010.
Elburn Coop in Ottawa will be open for corn on Tuesday, June 1, 2010.

After a rally on Thursday, grain and soybean futures slumped Friday. Prices were crippled by a combination of fundamental and outside market factors. Favorable weather forecasts for crop development in most areas pressured prices but, news that the Fitch rating agency had downgraded Spain’s credit rating broke the market to the downside. Corn and soybeans fell along with stocks and crude oil. There were no new corn sales to China announced this week and in fact some new crop sales were canceled. The domestic price of corn in China is still favorable for importing corn there so expect to continue to hear rumblings of corn exports to China.

In today’s trading, grain and soybean futures were all down hard at the close. July corn finished down 14 ¼ for the day and down 10 for the week. July soybeans closed down 14 today and down 3 for the week. July Chicago wheat futures finished 10 lower today and down 14 for the week.

National average on highway diesel fuel prices dropped for the second week in a row down 8.2 cents in this weeks report. After slumping early in the week, crude oil prices recovered mid week. Though they did give up some that gain today. Stocks of distillates and crude oil remain historically high but, look for any weather scare in the gulf to rally prices quickly. Gulf of Mexico waters are the warmest they have been at this time of year since 2004. Warm waters in the gulf are fertile grounds for spawning hurricanes.

Have a great weekend!
Mike Etienne

Wednesday May 26, 2010

2010-05-26T14:51:00.005-05:00

Fact of the day: In Illinois there are 233 people per square mile (Thanks to Chicago).

Today was a productive day and the market was able to make back most of what was lost yesterday. Nearby corn was up 7 cents and closed at $3.71. Nearby beans finished up 7 cents at $9.38.

Across the board corn finished the day 7-8 cents in the green. December 2010 closed at $3.90 and July 2011 corn closed at $4.19. Higher futures can be contributed to the supportive outside markets today. Crude oil futures rose 4%, Gold topped $1,200, and the US dollar was up as well. Seems like everything keeps boiling down to the Chinese. The outside markets today were friendly with talk again of China possibly buying more corn. It appears that whenever we hear friendly news, the market has responded positively. Soybeans have rose from a 10 week low on the strengthening demand from China. China is expected to finish the year (October 1) importing around 46 million tons of soybean supplies. That number is expected to increase to 49 million tons from all suppliers next year.

River basis has been firming for the past few weeks. May to July corn basis levels have all strengthened to better than -10 cents. May to July beans are bidding 2-4 cents over the board. The Morris Terminal is busy unloading trucks and loading barges. Stop in the office sometime and be sure to take a look at new floral additions. We have been seeing some scattered rains throughout Illinois. None of the rain has played a major role on the river and barges have still be able to navigate the river without issues.

Another interesting bit of info I found today is that scientists have identified 4 new strains of wheat-killing fungus. These new strains '...could endanger the global wheat supply.' Now I have no idea how big of a threat this actually is. These may be the same scientists in the 1970's that predicted we were all going to die by 2000 if women continued to use hairspray. Regardless, I thought it was interesting.

Stay classy Illinois,
Nathaniel Dubravec

Tuesday May 25th, 2010

2010-05-25T15:38:00.003-05:00

Good weather and rapidly improving crop conditions coupled with failing world financial markets contributed to corn being down 6.75 cents, Soybeans down 10, and wheat down 7 today. Crude Oil was down more than $2/barrel today and the Dow was off over 200 pts. At the time of this writing (3:40), crude is down only $.85 while the Dow has bounced back to only down 20 pts! I wanted to shed a little light on how commodities, US dollar, and stock index has performed so far in the month of May.

April 30 Today %Change

US $ Index 81.99 87.25 6.4%
Gold 1168 1191 2.0%
Cattle 94.22 90.11 -4.3%
Hogs 86.32 81.05 -6.2%
Corn 3.75 3.65 -2.7%
Soybeans 9.99 9.30 -6.9%
Wheat 5.03 4.63 -8.0%
Crude Oil 88.36 67.87 -23.2%
S&P 500 1183 1045 -11.7%

As you can see it has been a great month for the US dollar as all of the European financial problems have at least lent some credibility to our currency. Gold has also done well in great times of uncertainty as a safe heave if you will for money. The commodity sector other than Gold has had a rough go of it and further strength of the US Dollar could lead to lower prices down the road with all other fundamentals remaining equal.

Scott Meyer

2010-05-21T16:11:00.001-05:00

Note: Corn Products in Chicago will close at midnight Friday, May 21, 2010 and remain closed on Monday. They will re-open 5AM Tuesday, May 25, 2010.

Elburn Coop in Morris will be open for corn and soybeans on Monday , May 24, 2010
Elburn Coop in Ottawa will be open for corn on Monday, May 24, 2010.

In today’s trading, grain and soybean futures were mixed. Corn rebounded along with equity markets after a tumultuous week. USDA announced more export corn sales to China this morning. Export sales continue to be good but, actual shipments are lagging. Remains to be seen if we can increase the shipment pace enough this summer to make USDA’s goal for exports. Soybeans were weaker on fund selling along with lower crude oil. Soybeans were also pressured by a dryer, warmer weather forecast which is friendly for fieldwork and planting the remainder of soybeans. Rain showers continue to pop up today throughout Illinois and east. July corn finished up 7 cents to put it up 6 for the week. July soybeans closed down 3 today and down 12 ½ for the week. It should be noted that May soybean basis at our Morris river terminal has improved 14 cents since last Friday. Posted tonight at -.07 SN. July Chicago wheat futures finished 2 ¼ higher for the day to eek out a ½ cent gain for the week.

National average on highway diesel fuel prices dropped 3.3 cents in this weeks report ending a 7 week up streak. As Zach alluded to last night crude has continued to crash since this report so would expect this average to continue to drop. Stocks of distillates and crude oil remain historically high.

Have a great weekend!
Mike Etienne

Thursday May 20th, 2010

2010-05-20T17:22:00.007-05:00

Regarding the two causes, or over excused causes, a strong dollar and continued worry of the economic toppling of Greece and its domino affect on other European nations. The current effect of this information or lack of information, has the energy market continuing its downward tread. I am finding it difficult to actually understand what kind of economic crisis Greece is in other than mixed reports and little first hand matter of fact information being provided. The latest report has their government lowering wages and hiking taxes; (Sounds familiar, where have I heard that before?) which has in sighted 25,000 citizens to take the streets in protest. Of course this behavior is killing what tourism was still occurring, which accounts for 20+ percent of the Greece GDP; tourism also accounts for one in every five jobs in Greece.

So what does this have to do with energy prices, and how does it effect our US economy?
Well for starters Europe is our largest export market, our largest trading partner; With 20% of exports going directly to Western Europe. The US economy is not directly tied to Greece itself other than small loans and tourism, but fear the over borrowing throughout the Euro world is too far gone or over lent is the lingering problem. As the European markets tighten and possibly stagnate, this will have a ripple effect on our economy,which will most likely carry a heavy impact on fuel use, domestic and foreign.(further reduction in manufacturing and air travel) It seems to be the big picture investors are looking at as they exit the crude market for higher ground.
Crude is down 22% from its April 6th high of $86.84, settling today at $68.01. Today was the end of the June contract, tomorrow starts a new month with about a $2.00 carry to July, $69.59, down a $1.20 in overnight trade.

How about the products that matters to you:

Gasoline today followed the complex with losses of about a nickel on the futures. Gas showed draws of 300.000 bpd, with four week demand up 2.1% from this time last year. You should be paying $2.84 or so for gas in this market if your not hunt around its out there. Hint, hint.

Diesel also traded lower once again, down about four cents on the futures. Diesel saw draws this week of a million bpd, which is wildly off from expectation of 1.3 million bpd builds. Also interesting to see was the large jump in diesel demand, up 12.3% from this time last year. (four week average)

This weeks DOE report would appear at first glance to favor bullish turnabout, but Cushing, Oklahoma reported once again record inventory, causing large concern over what we are judging the market on. So while things are improving from last year,which wasn't exactly banner, inventories are still too high for investors. I look for continued volatility as we enter a new contract month of trading, we are now aways from $65 crude, but it wont take long to get back there with $2.50 wackes. If you don't need to fill your tank, don't, the prices are getting better in the short term.
Well if your still reading, sorry so winded this evening, I didn't find a ton of conversation on my cold calls today.
Good evening and thanks for reading. Feel free to respond, by clicking "comments".

Zach Winter

Wednesday May 19, 2010

2010-05-19T13:16:00.003-05:00

Fact of the day: The official state tree is the White Oak. The official state insect is the Monarch Butterfly.

Good afternoon bloggers. Today the markets were on the defense and posted modest loses on the day. Nearby corn closed down -1 cent at $3.59. Nearby beans finished down half a cent at $9.38. Nearby wheat was up +2 cents at $4.69.

Fall corn was down 1 penny at $3.77. Chinese purchases of USA corn were finally confirmed. This is the first confirmation of China's purchases since talk started weeks ago. I was hoping this would have boosted corn prices today, but that didn't seem to be the case. Warm weather may be weighing in on the price of corn. Futures fell to their lowest level in 2 weeks as forecasts for warm weather increase expectations of a bumper crop this year. 67% of this years corn crop is rated as good to excellent. Corn exports continue to be good.

Fall beans fell -8 cents at $9.06. Export sales are at 9.7 mbu. and new crop export sales are at 7.8 mbu. China still is buying our beans over South America. There is talk of Chinese buyers canceling South American soybeans and replacing them with Uncle Sam soybeans. Today's talk is that weak closings are blamed on good USA bean planting and growing weather. This weekend's heat is needed in areas and we should definitely see some growth with a few consecutive warm days.

The Illinois River has come down since earlier this week and is now forecasted at 9'6". Morris, IL area is expected to get some rain this Friday. It shouldn't pose a threat to the river rising too much, but we'll keep an eye on it. IL river basis is firm. June and July corn basis is currently at -8.5.

Stay classy Illinois,
Nathaniel Dubravec

Tuesday May 18th, 2010

2010-05-18T14:52:00.002-05:00

A very lackluster turn-around-Tuesday as corn finished up 3.75, soybeans dn 1.5, and wheat dn 1.25. Markets were all higher on the overnight trade and early on in the day session today but didn't manage to close that well. Crude oil also saw a similar trading day as it was up $2.40 early on but ended dn $.50 on the day.

While the grain markets are continuing to find demand at these lower prices, the prospects of warmer-drier weather has all the bulls on the sideline waiting to see if this early planted crop can pop up and start growing with authority. Many areas are looking forward to some drying to allow for corn re-planting and soybean planting to start. Unless the current extended forecasts change to cooler/wetter, it looks difficult to run up prices until we get into a more critical late June/July corn pollination period.

Scott Meyer

Monday May 17th, 2010

2010-05-17T15:26:00.002-05:00

Corn futures stumbled Monday, settling at a 3-week low, continuing a retracement of prior gains on pressure from a stronger U.S. dollar and bearish near term crop weather. The theme was consistent across most commodity markets in reaction to lingering European economic fears. In the absence of fresh supportive news, outside markets served as the focal point for price direction, with beneficial weather for spring planting and crop development adding to lower tone. USDA pegged corn planting at 87% complete with conditions rated at 67% good to excellent, the market was looking for around 90% complete with conditions near 85% complete.

Soybeans followed along with corn as lack of news and negative outside markets sent things lower. Soybean plantings came in at 38% tonight, the market was expecting soybeans to be 45% complete tonight.

Chris Spurlock

Friday May 14, 2010

2010-05-14T13:36:00.003-05:00

Fact of the day: The 'Tully Monster' is the official state fossil. It was a marine mammal that lived 280-340 million years ago.

Hello bloggers! Today was a trying day for corn and beans. Nearby corn finished down -10 cents at $3.56. Soybeans were down -10 cents at $9.50. A stronger US dollar, great weather outlook, and weak crude oil was to blame for the fall in prices. As Scott pointed out earlier, it's ironic how China purchased 484,000 tonnes of corn from USA (the most in a decade) and the price of commodities still declined. Not only is China purchasing corn from the USA, but there is talk they will soon become the no. 1 importer of American DDG's. Other than Chinese news, there appears to be not much fresh news today.

New Orleans' corn bid is up this week at +50 cents and soybeans are bidding at +53 cents. The Illinois River appears to have crested which will allow for continued barge loading in Morris and Ottawa. As of right now, the oil slick in the Gulf of Mexico has not been affecting barge movement in/out of the USA. This weeks rains will be followed by a weekend of 70 degree days. This weekend's weather will be a sight to sore eyes for the producers that have received more rain than desirable. Looks like Grundy County area will be seeing its next rainfall Monday, but will remain dry for the next week. The Morris Terminal has seen 2.70 inches of rain this month. Our average rainfall is 3.95 inches for May.

Some international news that I found interesting is the Japanese government is ordering '...the destruction of 73,653 pigs' to prevent the spread of foot-in-mouth outbreak. Though the outbreak currently has not made any noticeable changes meat demand/consumption, it is expected to slow if Japan's culling efforts fail.

Stay classy and have a great weekend,
Nathaniel Dubravec

Thursday May 13th, 2010

2010-05-13T17:56:00.003-05:00

Well it's still ugly for those looking for an energy market up tic. Most of us will be happy with cheaper fuel, but many investors were looking to energy for an income opportunity and it doesn't look as though the bounce is coming anytime soon. Crude closed down another $1.25 at $74.40. The same story has once again lead to the same results, (funny how that works) dollar gains on continued worries over the state of the global economy, with commodities and equities lower. Overall crude is down $2.40 on the week, with diesel and gas both up about .02 cents; Mainly do to sizable jump Monday.
This weeks DOE report did little to increase the hopes of demand, with reports of 1.9 million bpd builds on crude and 1.4 million bpd builds on diesel. Supply levels are at all time highs, Cushing, OK reported its crude reserves are at all time highs since reporting began in 2004. The only glimmer of hope came in the way of 2.8 million bpd draw on gasoline.
I believe if the economy was showing stronger signs of global improvement, the 970,000 barrels of oil substance spuing into gulf would have an impact on the market, but no impact has been seen. BP reported today that the clean up efforts tabhas hit $450 million, with over 530 vessels participating in clean up efforts. An end may be in site, with hopes of a "top hat"oil containment system will be in place within a few days. The latest effort is focused on a slightly smaller tube being inserted into the existing pipe, funneling oil to the top of the surface, where it can be trapped and contained.
The short term outlook remains bearish with inventory high and demand low. Some news of increased air demand did surface today calling for a possible up tic in jet fuel demand. Air travel authorities are budgeting 20% fuel price jumps for the up coming travel season, that could be an indicator of future price ranges, but expect to pay about the same for fuel this weekend.
Good evening, stay dry.
Zach Winter

Wednesday May 12, 2010

2010-05-12T14:12:00.003-05:00

Fact of the day: The official snack food of Illinois is popcorn. The Illinois General Assembly designated it as the official state snack in 2003.

Good afternoon bloggers! Last night and this morning we saw a significant rally due to China purchasing 10 cargoes of corn (6 cargoes from USA). There is speculation China's interest in our corn is because of a poor Chinese corn harvest and rising inflation. Though corn and beans rallied early, corn closed +1 cent at $3.78 and beans closed down half a penny at $9.65

Rumors from earlier this week proved to be true with China buying corn from USA. Corn sales activity for 2009/2010 were a marketing year high of 72.9mbu. This is the highest since January 2008. December 2010 corn finished the day at $3.92. Corn planting is going well and the rains which fell this week have definitely helped a lot of producers. Though the rains have helped producers around Illinois, some producers in northwest Indiana are 'waterlogged'. Producer movement has ramped up due to finished or wet fields. Some areas have fieldwork on hold and more of a focus has shifted to moving grain. Though some areas are more wet than favored, just be thankful we don't live in Wyoming/Colorado/Dakotas. Producers up there have a rare May snowstorm on their hands!

New crop beans were down on the day. Old crop beans posted unchanged to a penny gain. The mixed closing prices may be due to a lingering effect from the USDA report. The report said we may have a larger than ending stockpile of beans that analysts previously thought. USA nationwide bean emergence is just shy of 10%. Another 10.4mbu. of sales was posted for this week. Good to have a few solid weeks back to back. This is the second highest total since February (11.4mbu. sold). New Orleans bean values have decreased ~2% since last week. Bean exports have slowly declined as expected.

Stay classy Illinois,
Nathaniel Dubravec

Tuesday May 11th, 2010

2010-05-11T15:21:00.002-05:00

CBOT Today:
Corn up 6.5 cents
Beans up 5.0 cents
Wheat up 0.5 cents

USDA Report Card day today:

Corn production for the 2009 crop was lowered 25 mbu on poor yields from N & S Dakota with national yield lowered to 164.7 vs 164.9 in April. The corn carryout for 09/10 was lowered from 1.899 bbu to 1.738 as a result of lower production, higher food, ethanol, and export usage. Using the projected 163.5 yield for next year and 88.8 million planted acres, carryout for 10/11 is projected at 1.818. Corn was 5 cents lower overnight on higher dollar and week stock and crude markets but did manage to finish up 6.5 cents for the day or 11.5 cents higher than overnight ended. More moisture forecast over the midwest for next 2 days and then more seasonable temps along with drier weather forecast for the weekend and first part of next week.

If corn had a slightly bullish tone from the USDA then soybeans had a very bearish report as carryout 09/10 was left unchanged at 190 mbu where some were looking for 170 range numbers. The real negative news is next year with projected carryout using 42.9 bu/ac yield and 78.1 million acres at 365 million bushels. The world bean supply and demand doesn't look any better with record production in South America but it never ceases to amaze how demand eventually pulls carryout numbers down from projections on soybeans. If you have any questions on USDA reports or daily comments in general, please feel free to give your local Elburn Coop office a call.

Thanks,

Scott Meyer

Monday May 10th, 2010

2010-05-10T14:38:00.003-05:00

Corn started out the session up a nickel, but wasn't able to hold on, as the dollar pulled back its heavy losses and wheat took a nose dive as the frost/freeze over the weekend failed to due much damage to the crop. Tomorrow morning the USDA will release their monthly crop production report with estimates for both old crop and new crop carry-out. Analyst are projecting old crop carry-out between 1.72 billion bushels and 2.0 billion bushels with the average guess at 1.86 billion bushels, while new crop carryout estimates range between 1.5 and 2.4 billion bushels, with the consensus at 1.9 billion bushels. The weekly crop progress report shows corn at planted 81%, the market was looking for 75% to 85%.

Soybeans were able to finish out the day slightly better then both corn and wheat closing a whopping penny higher. Estimates for carry-out tomorrow on old crop soybeans are 180 million bushels and new crop at 340 million bushels. The weekly crop progress report shows soybeans at planted 30%, the market was looking for 35%.

Weather forecast calls for cool and wet weather in much of the central U.S. grain belt, this week. Delta grain-growing areas will have generally favorable weather for planting and crop development during the next five days. Rainfall of more than 3 inches is in store for Iowa, Missouri and Illinois, with moderate amounts elsewhere in the Midwest. Freezing weekend temperatures developed in some sections of the Corn Belt.

Chris Spurlock

Thursday, May 6th, 2010

2010-05-06T16:32:00.002-05:00

Wow. Can you say "sell-off"! This week has produced the largest three day energy skid of the year; I haven't seen anything this ugly since the last White Sox's game. Today's catch phrase was "panic sell-off", as the DOW slid to February lows and energy continued its three day collapse. Crude closed today at $77.11, diesel was down .07 plus cents and gas wasn't far behind at .06 cents. Last time we chatted crude was on the up tic, at $85.17, that is an $8 loss in a week.
It appears worries over Greece and other European nations debt crisis, once again pushed investors out of riskier oil and equities, into saver waters such as the dollar. Hopes for big energy recovery are diminishing as most are realizing that inventories far out weight demand and promises of great future demand are coming up empty. Today's sell off is being blamed on different reasons, most still based in speculation, with little concrete evidence. It is said that the Dow experienced some sort of "computer glitch", I have heard that one before, or the more likely 10,500 point sell stop orders are to blame for such high trade volume; Either way, it was ugly. Tomorrow will be interesting with most experts pointing to late day rebounds as the possible new direction, "buying opportunity" is the new catch phrase.
The short term outlook for energy is still weak with inventories high, demand down, and prospects of future demand looking grim. The best thing the energy market has going for it, is the three day beating it has taken, it could mark it ripe for the picking. Tomorrow is a new day, lets see what happens.
Good evening,
Zach Winter

Wednesday May 5, 2010

2010-05-05T14:42:00.003-05:00

Good afternoon bloggers! Today was a very interesting day to say the least. Corn opened down this morning and stayed down for the majority of the day. Fortunately, a nice corn rally finished the day off. Corn finished +4 cents @ $3.73. Beans opened down and closed down -9 cents @ $9.78.

The AG markets put on a mixed performance throughout the day after initially opening in the red. Corn was in the red for most of the day until a late rally. Rumors are still flying around in regards to China purchasing more corn. We have heard China bought 8-10 cargoes of corn. Regardless of if China did or did not buy corn, it may have boosted corn prices. Domestic corn prices in China have soared since 2009 and it may be that they are looking at the USA to supply them. USDA pegs corn emergence at 19%.

Livestock prices have been doing very well as of late. Hog prices have been climbing higher this spring and last week's cash price is the highest since 2008. S&P 500 and the Dow Jones Industrial Avg. were both down. USA dollar is up today and crude oil is down $3.11/barrel.

Soybeans are ~15% planted vs. 5-year average of 8%. Producers have been going hard and are ahead of planting schedule averages. Movement and sales have seemed to slow the past few weeks. South American crop availability is probably to blame for this. New Orleans' soybean values are down 14% from a year ago. South American values are down 31%. The New Orleans soybean basis is at +28 cents over FH May. As of right now the oil slick in the Gulf of Mexico has not been problematic in the Delta area in regards to freight.

Have a great one,
Nathaniel Dubravec

Tuesday May 4th, 2010

2010-05-04T14:51:00.002-05:00

Corn dn 2 cents, beans unchanged, and wheat up 10 today as all 3 markets were much lower this morning and closed near their high today. The outside markets were much lower today with crude dn $3.45 at the time of this writing and the dow industrial down 248 pts! The Greece financial problem has again reared it's ugly head up as well as Spain and other European countries. The US dollar is benefiting from all of this negativity out of Europe and the stronger dollar is usually always negative to commodities in the investment world. Planting progress in Northern Illinois is going off without a hitch and as is the case in much of the corn belt. It appears planting will be done in record time with almost no current drought areas on the national map, sounds like a big harvest in the making.

Got an e-mail today on the oil rig explosion in the Gulf of Mexico and wanted share a few thoughts. I would first state that the 11 missing men are still missing and authorities have said they do not expect them to be found. The oil rig was contracted by BP for $500,000/day and with helicopters, support vessels, and other services it is estimated at $1 million/day! The rig is a state of art floating rig that is held in place not by anchors but jets under the water that use constant GPS signals to keep the rig in one place. The rig cost $350 million to build in 2001 and would cost more than double that to rebuild today.

Scott Meyer

Monday May 3rd, 2010

2010-05-03T15:02:00.002-05:00

Grain commodities taking a hit today as concerns worsen about the oil spill that is potentially threatening to shut down export operations in the gulf. Planting continues on a record pace as well, with the USDA announcing corn planting at 68% nationwide, Illinois at 87% and Iowa at 84%. The strength of the dollar was the catalyst for the declines, with the absence of fresh news in the face of bearish underlying fundamentals keeping many buyers on the sidelines.

Weather is looking mostly dry and seasonable weather will affect the central U.S. into Thursday, followed by rain in northern/eastern corn and soybean areas Thursday and Friday. Notably, the Delta stays mostly dry over the next seven to 10 days as the best rain chances focus to the north.

Chris Spurlock

2010-04-30T15:37:00.001-05:00

Note: Corn Products in Chicago will close at midnight Friday, April 30, 2010 and re-open 5AM Monday, May 3, 2010.

Elburn Coop in Morris will be open for corn and soybeans on Monday , May 3, 2010
Elburn Coop in Ottawa will be open for corn on Monday, May 3, 2010.

The market had several interesting developments this week to factor in. In the export market, rumors of China buying US Corn were confirmed on Wednesday by the USDA reporting a sale of 115,000 metric tons by private exporters. There are further rumors that more sales to China may be forthcoming. It remains to be seen how well phytosanitary hurdles can be cleared to actually get the corn into China. Marketers are also closely following developments with the uncapped oil well in the Gulf of Mexico that is spewing 1000’s of gallons of oil per day into the Gulf. The oil slick reached some coastal areas today and almost certainly will reach more by the end of the weekend. The oil slick also threatens to shut down vessel traffic into and out of the lower Mississippi River. Any lengthy shut down there could have significant effects on our local river values and basis. Locally corn planting is practically complete and some soybean planting has commenced. A wary eye is cast to some cooler than normal temperatures forecast in early May and rain this weekend is expected to cause some field work delays. Otherwise the weather looks to be very good. Most all nearby grain bids have now moved to basis July futures.

In today’s trading, grain futures were higher across the board. This in the face of outside markets that were generally lower. Corn found support from rumors of additional Chinese purchases. Thunderstorms across the Midwest delaying fieldwork were also supportive but, it must be noted that planting progress is well above the 5 year average for this time of year. July corn finished up 6 ¼ today and up 14 ¼ for the week. July soybeans closed up 3 today but, after a dismal start on Monday & Tuesday finished the week down 11. July Chicago wheat futures finished 7 ½ higher for the day and down 2 ½ for the week after a bad start similar to soybeans.

National average on highway diesel fuel prices rose only 0.4 cents in this weeks report but, continued a 5 week up streak. Though stocks of distillates and crude oil remain historically high, the national average price for diesel is about 80 cents higher than last year at this time.

Have a great weekend!
Mike Etienne

April 29th, 2010

2010-04-29T17:46:00.002-05:00

What a month. It is Energy Thursday and the roller coaster continues. The Energy complex has seen a week of ups and downs, to land about flat for the week. The story has been the day to day saga over Greece and its finical hardship and the constant dichotomy of the state of our economy; it seems to change with the wind. One thing is for certain crude and product are on the rise again. Crude jumped about $2 today and diesel and gas are both up a few cents. Tomorrow is the last day of trade for both the June futures heating oil and RBOB contract, which could drive the numbers south as some profits are taken. The month of April added about .15 cents to the market.
There is still a lot of talk about China's demand causing mid summer spikes of $100 crude, but I think the lingering effects of our economic short fall should keep a lid on $100 crude. Reuters reported 2010 crude should average about 81.10, leaving a little room for a $90 run, which would most likely get gas and diesel up by about .25 or more mid summer. Also remember the largest holder of crude contracts in the world is still under the gun(Goldman Sachs) and position limits are still in the Washington think tank. Time will tell, but budget a little more for fuel in the coming months.
I am Zach Winter, out.

Wednesday April 28, 2010

2010-04-28T13:50:00.003-05:00

Good afternoon bloggers! Today corn was up +9 cents @ $3.57. Soybeans were unchanged @ $9.83. Wheat was down -2 cents @ $4.96.

Today's news was dominated by China buying 150mmt of corn from USA. It is significant because it is the first time China has bought corn from the USA since 2006-2007 growing season. The positive news of China purchasing corn gave the market something to react positively on. Though China has bought corn from USA, it will be another thing to see if the Chinese government will allow the corn to be unloaded come delivery time.

Previous corn planting record of 37% in 2004. This year producers are on record pace at an astonishing 50%. South Africa will start harvesting a record crop in May. March USA soybean crush was up 1.2mbu at a record 156.1mbu. Mexico absorbed 3.3mbu of soybeans. South American soybeans are slowly making it into the pipeline. 11.3mbu. soybean sales (highest since February) is a figure that has some jumping to the 'South American pipeline' conclusion.

There is talk that corn acres are switching over to bean acres. New Orleans soybean basis is +45 May. Most bids from the processor market is firm and steady. The river markets are still very competitive and still dealing with expensive barge freight rates. The weather has been very favorable as of late and will continue into Friday. Illinois and most of the Midwest will be seeing rain this weekend and warmer temperatures in the 70's. No cold weather is expected for the next 10 days.

Stay classy Illinois,
Nathaniel Dubravec

Tuesday April 27th, 2010

2010-04-27T14:00:00.002-05:00

Record planting progress, great weather, and a much lower stock market all contributed to corn and beans down 5 and 16 cents respectively. Crude oil has even gotten into the game today as it is down $2 a barrel. December 2010 corn futures finished at 3.69 and marks the lowest close since Sept 22, 2009. All market news seems to be concentrated on the weather and planting progress with both being extremely bearish.

US stock markets fell today as Greek and Portuguese debt was downgraded to basically JUNK by market analysts. The Euro fell to a 12 month low against the US Dollar so any of you wishing to take a European vacation for bargain US dollar prices should start looking into it. Goldman Sachs execs were on capital hill today and faced grilling on how they traded through the housing bubble and made billions off the collapse. Explanations must have been good enough for wall st. because on a day when the dow is down over 12o pts, Goldman stock rose over 1%.

Cash corn market basis levels are at great levels vs May 2010 futures contract as the pipeline tries to originate movement in the presence of record field activity.

Scott Meyer

Monday April 26th, 2010

2010-04-26T15:03:00.003-05:00

Well I am sure it comes as no shock to anyone that the USDA weekly crop progress report shows planting at 50% this week vs. 19% last week, and 22% on the 5 year average. Around here most areas' are higher then that. Corn has little fundamental support as most expected the U.S.D.A to show planting progress between 45% and 50% in its crop progress report Monday afternoon. The record pace for this week is 52%. Weekend rains were considered good for the crop, and more rains in the forecast are not seen as a major problem for U.S. planting as a whole. Considering wheat's slide, corn "held its own." Funds sold an estimated 2,000 contracts Monday, but traders and analysts say that in general the funds have been supporting prices. One analyst noted there are a lot of investors who see the Ag commodities, primarily corn and soybeans, as undervalued relative to their alternative investments, such as crude and stocks that are at their 19 month highs.

Soybean futures ended modestly lower, unable to sustain early price strength on technically oriented selling pressure. Futures experienced two-sided trading action, with technical and seasonal buying giving way to profit taking pressure after fund buying was exhausted. Positive seasonal buying patterns and carryover technical buying led prices near four-month highs in early trade. However, without fresh supportive news, a record large South American harvest and record projected U.S. plantings futures had little support to sustain the advances. Concerns that heavy Midwest rains may stall corn seedings and possibly lead to additional soybean acres helped take some edge off prices as well.

Chris Spurlock

Wednesday April 21, 2010

2010-04-21T14:29:00.002-05:00

Good afternoon bloggers! The past two days have helped the commodities get back on track. After Monday's debacle, corn and beans are close to what they were last week. Nearby corn was up another +4 cents @ $3.59. Soybeans were up +11cents at $9.95. July soybeans broke the $10 mark and finished the day at $10.06.

The corn market has been strong and stable the past few days. New Orleans' bids are strong at +47 cents. With producers planting corn in the fields and not moving much to the elevators, basis and futures has seen a rise. China appears to be buying some as well as North Africa countries. It's interesting how corn futures have been behaving as of late with planting going full bore. Japan also seems to be diversifying by moving 25% of their business from USA to S. America. Taiwan is moving 90% towards S. America. A lot of soybeans are getting exported to China. The bean (and corn) basis has been firming up this week as well. Soybeans are the highest they have been in 3 months. Both July and August beans are above $10 and hopefully will continue to creep up.

Weather is looking favorable across the entire Corn Belt. It looks as if it's going to remain dry for the next few days until a system moves in. Producers are getting have been getting a lot done with some finished or close to finishing. All of the midwest states are making great progress. Scattered thunderstorms over Argentina and Brazil are slowing down harvest. South Africa is having similar issues.

Stay classy Illinois,
Nathaniel Dubravec

Tuesday April 20th, 2010

2010-04-20T15:33:00.003-05:00

Another day of outstanding weather and record planting progress! Corn, Soybeans and especially wheat turned up the volume on the turn-around-Tuesday dance today. Corn up 8, beans up 7, and wheat 19 higher. A little bit overdone yesterday on dragging corn down 16 and wheat down 23 along with rebounding crude oil (up 2$/barrel today) led to higher trade. Large rains are forecast over the entire corn belt starting Thursday and lasting into Monday. If rain gradually falls over those 3 days, things probably couldn't be better for the crop just planted. Lets look for this scenario and not one that has heavy downpours of rain in severe thunderstorms.

Soybeans have been the steady crop over the last 2 days, down 8 and up 7 respectively. Traders are watching record corn planting pace to see if bean acres will be lost and how planting progress will develope this week, yes beans are going in the ground nationwide.

Cattle prices have reached a 21 month high and that old high of Aug 2008 coincides with China hosting the 2008 summer Olympics and using a lot of beef! Hog prices are also way up over last year and both prices should lead to higher placements in the months to come.

Scott Meyer

Monday April 19th, 2010

2010-04-19T15:05:00.003-05:00

Crop Progress: Corn Planted 19% vs. 5% last year and 9% on 4-year average.

Well the story of the day definitely was Goldman Sachs being charged with defrauding investors. Goldman Sachs is one of the largest commodity trading funds, and while the fraud charges relate to sub-prime mortgage securities, the news sent shock waves through the entire commodity sector. A rally in the U.S. dollar coupled with a more than $2.00 a barrel drop in crude oil futures sent negative waves filtering through grain markets from the outset. Heavy speculative selling was featured, as the market lacked the fundamental stamina to sustain previous price levels without a supportive spark to attract fresh buying.

Chris Spurlock

Friday April 16, 2010

2010-04-16T16:15:00.003-05:00

Good afternoon bloggers!

Today the market finished up on corn, beans, and wheat. Corn finished up +1 cent @ $3.64. Bean finished +1 cent @ $9.85. Wheat finished up +10 cents at $4.90.

Corn opened the day down which had everyone on the edge of their seats. But corn was able to pull though and finish the day on a modest gain. July corn finished +16 cents for this week. Planting progress is 15% complete this season which is ahead of the national average. Looks like everyone is anxious to get planted early this time around. The situation brewing in China has people turning heads. Sources are saying that 'China is to sell another 1.4mmt of corn...the highest price going for about $7.47 per bushel.

Beans were up today as well. Sources are also saying that our friends in South America are planning another strike because they want lower export taxes on beans. Hopefully strike #2 will boost Uncle Sam's bean prices even higher next week. We will see if that plays a role.

It will be interesting to see what the market has in store for us this upcoming week. Farmers are going 'balls to the wall' to get planted, South America is working out some troubles, and the Corn Belts next big rain will not be until NEXT weekend. With a variety of other factors playing a role in the price of commodities, it will be very interesting to see how the market will react this coming week.

I've been questioned quite a bit about the volcano in Iceland today. I have not been hearing too much news in regards to the volcano situation other than what's on the local news. The ash is grounding aircraft and poses some air quality issues, but in terms of commodities I have not been hearing much news.

I hope you all enjoy the weather and have a pleasant weekend.

Stay classy Illinois,
Nathaniel Dubravec

Thursday April 15th, 2010

2010-04-15T17:57:00.002-05:00

Well, its that time, hopefully all are busy, in count of our gorgeous spring. Fuel has finally cooled this week with small gains on product of about .03 cents. Today was an interesting day with diesel the only energy commodity gaining by about a cent. While yesterday it was the only dog on the DOE report, and still posted gains. I can't make heads or tails of it, but either way its fact. Crude was down .33 cents but with negative employment news and a strong dollar, losses were minimal. If I were a betting man, I would look to see a jump towards $87 dollar crude tomorrow; today's close was $85.51.

There is a lot of talk out there about an expensive fuel affair coming this summer and thus far the market has supported such rumors. Gains have come in storms, and losses when they occur, are minimal at best. The current weight of a strong dollar, higher unemployment numbers, and the boys in Greece wondering how they got in so much trouble, seems to be the only thing keeping a lid on energy. I think a couple weeks of dollar losses is all the market needs to run crude to $90, which in turn will bring $3.50 plus diesel and gas. With any luck, the rest of the commodities market will jump on board and take an up tick, but we have yet to see any strong correlation.
Good wishes planting.
Zach Winter

Wednesday April 14, 2010

2010-04-14T13:39:00.003-05:00

Fact: It was on this day in 1865 that US President Abraham Lincoln was assassinated by John Booth.

Good afternoon! My, my today was a thriller. Only after corn and beans took a roller coaster ride did both commodities finish up on the day. Corn closed at $3.58 +5 cents on the day. Beans closed at $9.69 +1 cent on the day. Corn futures were up +5 cents across the board. September beans (SU0) were up +4 cents @ $9.54.

We had a nice little rally today with corn. Corn was +10 cents at one point today, but still closed +5 cents. Beans were down early today and were able to fight back into positive ground. It's hard to say why commodity prices are strengthening while planting is going on. A weak dollar and slow South American farmer selling may be contributing. Regardless, the price of corn and beans has been going in the right direction.

Illinois River corn basis is currently at -.03 nearby. Nearby bean river basis is -.17. The basis is firming and hopefully futures will continue to strengthen as well. New Orleans is currently bidding +44 cents for nearby corn and +38 for beans.

Today we saw a high of 82 degrees in Morris and will tomorrow as well. Birds, bees, flowers, and the trees are all doing their thing with this weather. After tomorrow it's expected to cool, but stay sunny for quite some time. Producers that have been able to finish field work are now going 'full bore' and getting some serious planting done.

We hope everyone has a safe spring and planting season.

Stay classy Illinois,
Nathaniel Dubravec

Monday April 12th, 2010

2010-04-12T15:17:00.002-05:00

Corn ended higher Monday on a weaker dollar, although traders and analysts remain unenthused about the market's fundamentals. Prices were higher for most of the day thanks to the weaker dollar, which typically steers investors into commodities. But prices could not climb more than 4-5 cents, and traders said the upside would remain limited if the weather stayed favorable to planting. Some traders and analysts say bears could be hard-pressed to push the market too much lower, given that prices are already relatively low and a long planting season still awaits. USDA pegged corn planting Nation wide at 3%, traders on average were looking for 4% to 6%.

Soybean futures ended mixed, with nearby old-crop contracts climbing on fundamental and outside financial market support. Follow-through buying from Friday's supportive supply and demand report, an unexpected export sale to China and weakness in the U.S. dollar served as the catalyst to lift nearby contracts. Friday's USDA report was quite bullish versus expectations and with a fresh export sale of U.S. soybeans Monday confirming strong old-crop demand, front month futures were firmly underpinned. Bull spreading was featured once again as fear of tight old-crop ending stocks versus record new-crop acreage outlooks widened the differential between old-crop and new-crop futures.

Friday April 9, 2010

2010-04-09T14:03:00.005-05:00

Factoid: The Chicago Cubs have not won a World Series since 1908. It has been over a century (100 years). That's a long time.

Happy Friday bloggers! Today corn closed down 2 cents @ $3.45. Soybeans closed up 6 cents @ $9.52. Gold is up .69%. Crude oil is down to $84.77/ barrel. Feeder cattle were up and lean hogs down on the day.

Today the USDA Report came out and left many scratching their heads with some numbers. USDA took 100mbu. of corn off of feed which raised USA carryout to 1.899bbu. Corn seemed to have a higher carryout, but not as much as we were thinking. World stocks were up 4.2mmt. Brazil's corn crop was increased 2.5mmt and Argentina's crop was left unchanged. Corn basis has remained steady while soybean basis has seemed to firm recently. CIF corn is bidding +42 cents. CIF soybeans are bidding at +30 cents. Morris nearby corn basis has remained strong at -5 cents.

USDA added 25 mbu. soybeans to export demand and decreased residual demand 25mbu. What confuses people is how will export demand for our beans increase when South America is going to start pumping out soybeans. I was thinking that with residual down, carryout would increase. 'Nay!' said the USDA. Rather than carryout increasing, export demand will increase. This left soybean carryout at 190mbu unchanged. World soybean stocks were up 2.3mmt. Morris soybean basis is -20 cents.

China seemed to react to rumors of import certs. and released about 40ish-mbu. from their reserves to appease Chinese processors. Great weather is being forecasted for the Corn Belt. Farmers are eager to get any remaining field work done and begin planted when we get a break in the weather. The Illinois River has crested and we are able to continue loading barges at our Morris and Ottawa Terminals. The weather is going to warm up later this weekend and is expect to remain nice for all of next week until Friday.

I hope you all have a great weekend.
Nathaniel Dubravec

Thursday April 8th, 2010

2010-04-08T16:54:00.002-05:00

Energy
This weeks crude market has been one of balance. Monday and Tuesday provided a boost, but after a bearish DOE report things have cooled off a bit. We have seen two consecutive days of small losses, totaling about a buck fifty. Crude closed today at $85.39, well within the current trading pattern. US crude inventories rose for the 10Th consecutive week touching levels not seen since June of 09. This weeks DOE report showed builds of 2 million on crude, draws of 2.5 million on gas and an unexpected 1.1 million build on diesel. Refineries were cracking this week, up 1.9% to 84.6%, which hasn't been seen since October of 09.
The last two days of energy loss has been due to pressure from the dollar. As the dollar gains it reduce investment appeal for those using other currencies. Also poor job data, balanced positive retail news today, as 31 chain stores reported 9% sales gains, the largest single month gain since March of 1999.
The two day losses on actual end user product have been minimal in comparison to the recent run up. Retail pump prices on fuel are climbing and not as fast as the actual spot or rack market. Retail fuel margins nation wide dropped last week by about 50%, as retails try to blunt the blow of recent gains. So while the market has dropped the last few days by about .03 cents, don't expect to see it at the pump, as replacement fuel loads are considerably higher than just one weeks ago. The short term fuel outlook is still bullish, don't be surprised to see crude make a considerable run between now and Memorial Day. Product will most likely follow suite, irregardless of short term demand numbers.
It sounds like this weekend will provide some sunshine and warm 70 degree weather. Still a few days until the fields dry out, so after you get the planters in line, be sure to hit your local golf course and help stimulate there early spring economy. Have a great weekend.
Zach Winter

Wednesday April 7, 2010

2010-04-07T15:00:00.003-05:00

Fact of day: It was on this day in 1862 that General Ulysses S. Grant defeated the Confederate army at Shiloh.

Good afternoon! I hope all is well and this finds you in good health and spirits! AG markets were on the defensive for most of the day. Initially down, the market valiantly battled back to end on a positive note. Corn was in the red for most of the day and soybeans saw mixed trade across the board. We hear our Chinese buddies are looking to import some corn. It wasn't until some rumors started of Chinese import certifications that the market responded positively. Corn closed the day at $3.56 up 10 cents. Soybeans were up 8 cents and closed at $9.52.

With news coming from China today and the lack of news this past week, it appeared the market was in dire need of reacting to something. Thankfully it did so positively. Other news is that farmers are getting after it with some field work this past week. Prior to the .5-3" of rain that Illinois has received, a lot of guys were doing some field work and and applying anhydrous. Certain areas in Iowa and Minnesota (along the Mississippi River corridor) have run out of anhydrous. A blessing in disguise for suppliers has been the rain. This has allowed for fertilizer supplies to get replenished. Areas around St. Louis are planting in the high and dry areas. Reports coming from Texas are saying corn is 'knee high'.

Logistic concerns in South America still persist. The labor strikes have officially been resolved until next harvest. Reports from Africa/Middle East have told us that countries are offering premiums for South American corn. Egypt is offering +30 cent premium on South American corn over Uncle Sam corn because of quality issues.

The Illinois River market has seen the corn basis firm this past week. River corn basis is -.045 currently. May basis is -.03. Though the basis has firmed up nicely, it seems that it's going to take some better CBOT prices to encourage some movement. The CIF market has been relatively quite recently and looks like it's going to be a grind for a while. It will be interesting to see what happens with the rally today and if it will shake some bushels loose. The Illinois River CFS (cubic feet per second) has not done much with all the precipitation this spring. Thankfully the water levels have not played too big of a role in loading barges yet. Our Morris Terminal is offering a premium on corn over 54lb. test weight.

Stay classy Illinois,
Nathaniel Dubravec

Tuesday April 6th, 2010

2010-04-06T15:49:00.002-05:00

April showers bring May flowers and puts a halt to field work that we all enjoyed last week. Corn had a lackluster day finishing up 3/4 cent, soybeans up 8 1/2, and wheat up a dime. The markets will be watching weather forecasts which look to be drier and cooler starting Thursday for most of the corn belt. The monthly USDA S&D out Friday should paint a bearish picture with last Wednesday's quarterly report numbers. Corn carryout is projected to continue drifting toward 2.0 billion bushels with a sharp reduction in feed use estimates. Chatter of N. and S. Dakota showing better yield results should also hamper upwards prices. Corn planting progress as of Sunday night shows Missouri at 1% vs 8% avg, with Arkansas, Mississippi, and Alabama all behind normal.

Soybeans up today in light volume trade with positions being evened up ahead of Friday's report. Argentina's government estimating their crop at 55 mmt, up 2 mmt over the current USDA report and TWICE as much as last year!

Scott Meyer

Monday April 5th, 2010

2010-04-05T16:02:00.003-05:00

Corn ended higher Monday in a modest short-covering bounce aided by outside markets. The market was higher throughout the session despite weakness in soybeans and wheat. Surging crude oil and a weaker dollar were supportive. Last week's CFTC commitments of traders report showed a large net short position for speculators, which left the market primed for some short-covering. The small gains do not change the market's trend, however.

Soybean futures ended lower Monday, revisiting last week's lows on bearish supply fundamentals. The market is still feeling the affects of last week's larger-than-expected U.S. stocks and plantings reports, with abundant world supplies, and the seasonal shift of export business to the Southern Hemisphere weighing on prices. Rain-producing storm systems forecast to move through the U.S. Midwest in the next week added to the defensive tone of the market.

Thursday April 1st, 2010

2010-04-01T17:29:00.001-05:00

Its Energy Thursday, hopefully most are to busy in the field to read the coop blog. But, in case anyone is wondering about the energy market, here is the news; Crude jumped by more than two dollars this week to settle at $84.27, well above this weeks resistance point. Product jumped at the rack this week, a dime on gas and about fifteen cents on diesel. It appears that trade today was highlighted by thinner pre-holiday trade, which will become prevalent Monday as profit takers exit the market. There have been reports of increased money into commodities markets as we begin the second quarter, but the daily directional hand has still been the dollar. We may be moving into a new crude trading pattern which will be the 80-90 dollar range, which has been talked about by hedge fund managers for months. Next week will provide a good market gut check. My advice is fill the tank and do not be scared to lock some gallons, as we move into what will hopefully be a busy spring and summer.
If economic data continues to look positive and the dollar shows more weakness, we could be in for an expensive summer of fuel. At some point we will most likely see a separation from the dollar to fundamentals, but with fundamentals weak, I don't see that coming until the data supports the price, yes that's correct not the other way around.(rather cynical, but self perceived as accurate) Tomorrows unemployment data will be released and today's market gamblers were betting on positive news, believing some job growth has been had. The market will be closed tomorrow, but the employment data could set the tone come Monday.
Have a good weekend and enjoy 80 degrees tomorrow.
Zach Winter

Wednesday March 31, 2010

2010-03-31T14:29:00.002-05:00

Today, the market took a brutal beating to say things bluntly. Corn was down 9 cents at $3.45. Soybeans closed down 33 cents at $9.41. Wheat was down another 21 cents at $4.50.

The long waited USDA Report came out today. Ending stocks exceeded trade expectations today, but acres fell off their mark. It showed us that there is still an abundant supply. Corn stocks are around 7.7 bbu. 11% higher than last year and second largest on record. Soybeans were 58mbu above the average and are around 1.3bbu. None of these numbers proved to be good for the market. US planting acres are up 3% since last year. Illinois is up 600,000 corn acres since last year. Indiana is up corn 100,000. Illinois will also have another 100,000 soybean acres. Iowa shows the biggest increase with 300,000 soybean acres.

The strike in South America is officially over until they decide to have another one next harvest.

Though the acres are all up, they are not as high as everyone was anticipating. Both corn and soybeans were 1/2 a million acres shy of what some were estimating. Some are ignoring the 7.694 corn stock number because this year was the lowest corn feeding number for livestock in the second quarter since the 1990's.

The weather today has been the nicest all year. Temperatures reaching into the 70's (some area's 80'). Look for the nice weather to persist and possibilities of rain this coming weekend.

Go Illini,
Nathaniel Dubravec

Tuesday March 30th, 2010

2010-03-30T15:26:00.002-05:00

Pre-report trading was lackluster in the beginning with values unchanged throughout most of the day with corn faltering late and soybeans climbing. Below are the estimates for tomorrow morning's report:

Corn Acres 88.9 mil vs 86.5 last year
Bean acres 78.5 m vs 77.5 ly
all wheat acres 53.32 vs 59.1 ly
Cotton acres 10.44 vs 9.15 ly

Grain stocks on Mar 1st
Corn 7.5 billion vs 6.95 last year
Beans 1.2 b vs 1.3 ly
Wheat 1.3 b vs 1.0 ly

As you can see the corn situation is negative with more stocks on hand and more acres planned on being planted. The weather outlook is looking good for getting field work done and some early corn planted. Soybeans are a mixed bag with supplies 100 million less than this time last year but an extra 1 million acres or 45 million bu more expected to be grown. Wheat acres should be dramatically lower while cotton economics have rebounded and so should acres.

Scott Meyer

Monday March 29th, 2010

2010-03-29T16:18:00.002-05:00

Corn closed barely in the green today, being pushed into positive territory by a weaker dollar and increase in crude prices, along with soaring soy. Weather forecast are calling for a warm-up in the Midwest this week, which should help to get spring field work going, but outlooks for a rain shower at the end of week are in the picture. Analysts are expecting the government to project increased U.S. corn acreage in 2010 as producers abandon wheat, and corn supplies are expected to be ample.

Estimates from the 23 analysts in the survey ranged from 87 million to 90.15 million. Although corn acreage has in recent months been expected to climb this year due to a decline in wheat acres, soggy soil conditions in the Midwest have tempered those expectations somewhat, as analysts argue that farmers could be compelled to plant soybeans instead of risking delayed corn planting, which typically harms yields.

Friday March 26, 2010

2010-03-26T14:42:00.002-05:00

Happy Friday y'all! It's on this day actor James Caan (1940), Aerosmith front man Steven Tyler (1948), and NBA player John Stockton (1962) were born.

It was refreshing to see the markets close on a positive note after yesterday's sub-par performance. Yesterday the US dollar was stronger and commodities weaker. Today the US dollar was weaker and commodities stronger. Nearby soybeans closed UP 9 cents at $9.52. Corn closed UP 1 cent on the day at $3.56. The US dollar is down as crude oil nears the $81.00 mark. The Euro is up on the day as well.

Limited AG news lead to the greenback settling the markets tone for the day.

China will ship 540,000 tons of corn and 300,000 tons of wheat to southern Chinese Providences by July. China has been suffering from a severe drought. It is estimated that losses upwards of US $3.5 billion can be blamed on the dry weather. South America still has a lingering strike. The labor strike is making Argentina officials worry that they are going to struggle as a dependable supplier. If they are right, I hope it will help out Uncle Sam and company.

It appears that everyone is hesitant and in 'limbo' until the Stock in all Positions report comes on on Wednesday. A few of the past reports have surprised everyone and it will be very interesting to see how the market responds to this Wednesday's. The report has a range for corn between 7.76-7.32bbu. A substantial spread. Soybeans are expected to fall within a 1.27-1.61bbu. spread. Also a wide spread.

The Illinois River basis has firmed up nicely this week. Nearby soybean basis is -.04. The basis has firmed 3 cents since yesterday for beans. For those of you that are looking for more of an incentive to move the rest of your corn, the Morris Terminal is offering a premium for test weights better than 54lbs. and a very competitive schedule.

Weather outlook for northern Illinois is looking great. We may get a little precipitation on Sunday. Next week is looking warm and dry with temperatures getting into the 60's later in the week. We are getting reports that fields are drying out nicely and our friends in southern Illinois are able to do some field work. Yesterday 200 acres was planted near Bloomington, IL.

Have a great weekend and stay classy Illinois,
Nathaniel Dubravec

Wednesday March 24, 2010

2010-03-24T10:44:00.003-05:00

Good afternoon! Prices overnight were lower courtesy of a strong US dollar. All commodities succumbed to overnight pressure and throughout the day trade.

Corn finished up 2 cents at $3.65. Beans finished down 8 cents at $9.60 after yesterdays gains.

The US dollar is strengthening. This has caused for some eroding corn, soybean, and wheat prices. The Euro also has weakened to a 10-month low against the US dollar. It's speculated this is partly due to the European Union talking about bailing out Greece's financial problems. Also, the market has been interested in what the Euro vs. US dollar does. Now eyes seem to be focused on the Chinese yen vs. US dollar.

Southern Chinese Providences are suffering from one of the worst droughts in decades. We've been hearing through the grapevine that Argentina's port strikes have been resolved. It's also speculated that China's demand for soybeans may climb to record highs this year. This is because of increased livestock feed and crush capacity. Our hopes is that this will help absorb the surging global supply of beans. 45mmt of soybeans will be shipped to China in the year ending Sept. 30, 2010. That's 5.9% more than last year. Interestingly, China's domestic soybeans have become large supplies for human consumption. Roughly 10 million tons of soybeans are used for foods such as tofu and soya sauce. One company in China will be capable of crushing 22,000 tons of soybeans per day once their new Rizhao City plant opens.

Best wishes,
Nathaniel Dubravec

Tuesday March 23, 2010

2010-03-24T07:38:00.002-05:00

A little late on the Tuesday blog, my apologies. Corn down 8 cents on tremendous fund selling with reports of up to 12,000 contracts being sold. The weather pattern is looking good so far with a couple of systems due in the next 10 days but most of the heavy rain will favor the southern part of the US. The rivers in the Dakotas, Iowa, and Minnesota have pretty much all crested and if the spring rains stay a normal pace, things should slowly start to recede. A couple of corn planting progress reports, Mississippi 33% complete vs 22% average, Louisiana 40% complete vs 42% average, and Texas 38% complete vs 40% average.

Soybeans held their own staying unchanged on old crop but faltering 10 cents on new. A new crop sale of 120,000 tons to unknown destination were announced before the market opened. Traders are eyeing the Mar 31 USDA report as both corn and soybean planting intentions are to be released. Some traders are looking for our current 190 mbu carryout of soybeans to shrink to near 150 mbu before everything is said and done due to tremendous exports. If so that will put more support behind new crop prices to insure we don't dip down any farther next year. Brazil is expected to be 70% done with harvest by week's end.

Warmer drier weather forecast next week and SA harvest should keep futures on the defensive leading into the Mar 31 report.

Scott Meyer

Thursday March 18th, 2010

2010-03-18T16:57:00.002-05:00

Good evening blog readers. Lets talk Energy. It has been a bullish market the past few weeks in energy, with both diesel and gasoline seeing ten to fifteen cent gains. Crude has been playing the up and down game, but really holding in the $79.00-$83.00 range. Today's' energy market moved lower with the dollar trading higher and lingering concerns about credit issues in Greece. Overall this week the energy market is still showing gains with most available news pointing in a positive direction for demand and economic recovery. Looking ahead the market seems to still be in bull control, with technical traders calling for $88 short term crude. The current resistance is holding at $83.00, today's close was $82.20 with .73 losses. Thus far the bulls have diminished the fundamental data and continue to focus on the demand to come. Keep in mind it is rare to see a significant pull back as we head into the spring and summer months. If the market jumps past the $84 range, expect to see the prospect of $88 to $90 crude, causing product to follow suite; pump diesel prices in the $3.25 plus range.
It's a good time to fill the tank for spring, bio diesel products are bonding and mixing well with the break in the weather, so no time like the present. On the bio diesel note, it was brought to my attention that the $1 blenders credit for bio diesel blenders like our self, will still be without our subsidy. The previous $1 per gallon credit expired on January 1st, 2010 and while it has been passed by Congress, it has yet to find its way into the hearts of our Senators. So for now bio diesel may not have its monetary benefits previous held, but remember it is good idea to use what we grow.
Have a great rest of the week and happy March Madness to all.
Thanks for reading,
Zach Winter

Wednesday March 17, 2010

2010-03-17T14:42:00.002-05:00

Happy St. Patrick's Day! St. Patrick is thought to have lived in the early 400's. He's known as one of Ireland's patron saints who brought Christianity to the Irish. Started as a Catholic Feast Day which marks his death, St. Patrick's Day has become more of a day of parades, drinking, parties, etc. A typical day for the Irish.

Dare I say that the 'luck of the Irish' played a role in the markets today. Everything was in the green! Corn finished up 7 cents at $3.74. Soybeans were up another 14 cents and closed at $9.59. Fresh fund buying, higher outside markets are lending support to corn, beans, and wheat, and a weak dollar helped us out today as well. Weather premiums may have played a roll. Final ethanol usage should increase 100mbu but with ethanol margins struggling and a few slowdowns occurring, this is less certain.

In regards to weather, we are going to have to say a few 'Hail Mary's' of our own if we want to see this nice weather last. It looks as if 70 degree days are going to end with snow later this week. Yes, there is a possibility that snow is going to come back to the Midwest. The greatest potential of snow looks to be Iowa and the northwest corner of Illinois. But don't be surprised if we get some precip late next week.

That's the way it is,
Nathaniel Dubravec

Tuesday March 16th, 2010

2010-03-16T15:40:00.002-05:00

A classic "Turn-Around-Tuesday" in the grain markets today led by the weaker US dollar. The S&P today reasserted it's credit rating of Greece even though there has been no official bailout from the European Union finance ministers. The news did prop up the euro against the dollar and made for stronger commodities. Ethanol margins continue to run in the RED as over supply has hurt that industry. Crude oil remains relatively high at $80/barrel and with corn near $3.50 you would think ethanol margins would be better. This ratio does lend to blending more ethanol so lets hope we can see progress made for this 15% blend.

Soybeans perked up today and closed up 15 cents as the annual Argentina port/worker strike has surfaced. So far business is as usual but tensions are always high down there at this time of year. Harvest progress in Brazil and Argentina will be slowed due to rains forecast for the remainder of the week and may give us a chance to export a few more soybeans.

With the record fall/winter precip across the Dakotas, Iowa, and much of the corn belt, it is no wonder that river flooding is rearing it's ugly head as temperatures rise. The poor people along the Red River in Fargo ND are again looking at record water levels along with agricultural and residential flooding due to the tremendous snow melt going on there. Most of Iowa and up and down the Mississippi River are also showing moderate to major flood conditions.

Scott Meyer

Monday March 15th, 2010

2010-03-15T14:11:00.002-05:00

If there was one word to sum the trade today it would lackluster. A firmer dollar and lower crude oil weighed on corn today, along with pressure from big supply of feed grains. Strong crush numbers out today, coupled with can you believe it shipping problems in Brazil, lead to a 4 cent higher close in soybeans. The market has found a base for prices, with concerns about wet weather potentially delaying spring field work and seedings provided underlying support. A wet spring is seen limiting corn plantings as delayed spring field work could close the door on planting corn after a wet fall. Limited fall land preparation for planting corn this year as well about 5% of U.S. 2009 crop still needing to be harvested adds to market uncertainty. The weather concerns provide some psychological strength, but its too early to get excited about weather in mid-March. The weather is keeping a floor beneath prices, but not enough to provide a rally.

Friday March 12, 2010

2010-03-12T14:25:00.002-06:00

Good afternoon bloggers! Today we say CK0 close -1 cent at $3.54. All corn futures were down -1 cent today. Soybeans didn't do any better and closed -5 cents at $9.25. All soybean futures closed down a few cents on the day.

In regards to market news, it was a lackluster day. Not much fresh news. USDA announced a sale of 116,000 tons of US corn to South Korea. CIF corn has not done well this week and has dropped to +31. Ethanol finished 1.18% lower at $1.59/gallon. Soybeans were lower on the day. Soybean futures seemed to slide following yesterday's performance. Private exporters reported export sales of 220,000 metric tons of soybeans for China delivery.

Oil and other energy futures fell today. Gold prices continue to fall as the strength of the Euro increases. Gold has dropped 4% since two weeks ago.

Look for the weather to remain warm with rain this weekend. There is a system moving through that will be bringing some rain. Watch out for some severe weather this weekend in the Ohio River Valley area. Dryer weather is expected next week in Illinois.

Did you know: The name 'Chicago' is the French rendering of an American Indian word 'Shikaakwa' which roughly translates to 'wild onion'.

Good night and good luck,
Nathaniel Dubravec

Wednesday March 10, 2010

2010-03-10T13:26:00.005-06:00

Did you know: This coming Monday (March 15) marks the 'Ides of March'. In 44 BC Julius Caesar was killed on this day. "Et tu Brute?" comes from Shakespeare's play.

Today corn and wheat closed on mixed losses. Corn was down -3 cents at $3.65. Wheat was down -7.5 cents at $4.70. Prices for soybeans were constructive as soybeans found themselves on the better side of the market. Nearby soybeans finished up +10 cents at $9.58. Big news on the day was the USDA monthly crop report.

Corn prices retreated after the USDA monthly crop report showed a plethora of grain. This wasn't the first time the report threw us for a loop. It feels like the past few reports were expected to show corn supply to drop. Instead of supply dropping slightly as anticipated, corn supply rose. Wheat prices also dropped because of larger supplies. Corn harvested area declined 10,000 acres in Michigan, but was unchanged in Illinois and much of the Midwest. The Dakotas are still having one hell of a time getting at their corn due to the epic amount of snow received. The Dakotas were not surveyed for this report, but will be at a later date once farmers can actually get to it! Yields in Illinois decreased 1 bpa. US is at 13.1 bbu which is down from the previous estimate.

Corn basis is modestly weaker from a week ago.

Today was a good day for soybeans. Soybeans were up on the day. Great to see! CIF is offering +60 over the SK0. The USDA report showed a decline in harvested bean acres in Georgia and the Carolinas only. China bought 110 tons of soybeans for delivery. The Agriculture Ministry raised Brazil's 09-10 soybean crop 18% greater than what was harvested last year. A quick change of topic-1 year extension of the $1/gallon biodiesel tax will be attached to the job bill. It will be voted on later this week in the US Senate.

Some interesting wheat news is Brazil's unhappiness with US subsidies for the cotton industry. It seems that our Latino friends are threatening higher tariffs on a variety of goods if their demands are not met in regards to the cotton industry. We will keep an eye on this to see what happens. Wheat was feelin' the heat from Egypt today. The world's top wheat importer bought 120,000 tonnes of Russian and French wheat...bypassing Uncle Sam's supplies.

The Morris Terminal has been busy as always. We've been busy filling bean barges as of late with plans to work on a few corn barges in the near future. With a warm temperatures, flocks of common golden-eyes overhead, and high spirits present...the Morris Terminal is definitely the place to be. Nearby Morris corn is -.17 FH March. Nearby Morris soybeans are even SK0. If you are able to hold onto corn for 2 more months you can pick up 6 cents.

Today's weather was a high of the year for much of the Midwest. The Morris Terminal saw temperatures soar to 61 degrees today. For much of Northern Illinois, we will see warmer temperatures and rains into Sunday afternoon.

Stay classy Illinois,
Nathaniel Dubravec

Tuesday March 9th, 2010

2010-03-09T15:45:00.002-06:00

The day before the monthly USDA S&D report found traders believing in higher SA production numbers and possibly lower corn exports as corn finished down 6 cents. Nearby May futures have retreated 20 cents off their near term high and seem to be weighed on by increasing corn carryout and increased new crop planting intentions. Corn exports could really be the dagger for prices this year as our reputable stellar corn quality of years past has given way to problems this year with buyers looking to Brazil and Argentina for higher TW and lower damage supplies. Funds are estimated long 105,000 contracts of corn.

Soybeans finished unchanged as they should fare better tomorrow from a domestic standpoint as many see exports higher and production maybe a tad smaller. Carryout should be lower than 200 million bushels which gets into the needing a descent crop this year to stay at an ample supply. The bad news for beans tomorrow will be SA production estimates as all the private forecasts have been larger than the last USDA indications. Evidence of the large crop is seen with Brazil's infrastructure starting to bend as they try to handle the increased bushels. Funds are estimated long 13,000 contracts of soybeans.

Monthly report card tomorrow morning at 7:30.

Scott Meyer

Monday March 8th, 2010

2010-03-08T15:46:00.002-06:00

A round of short-covering by investors supported soybean and wheat futures on Monday despite bearish supply fundamentals for both commodities. The combination of a bleak technical picture and rising supply levels pushed corn prices to a two-week low. But managed investment funds held a net short position in both soybeans and wheat, leaving them prone to rallies despite abundant global supplies. The strength in soybeans came despite expectations for bumper crops in soy-producing countries such as Argentina and Brazil. The ongoing harvest in those areas will likely weigh on soy prices in the coming weeks.

Corn futures fell as traders focused on the bearish technical picture despite concerns that wet weather around the U.S. Midwest could cause delays to seeding this year's crop. Rains forecast this week may cause flooding in fields that have already been saturated by melting snow. While traders are mostly expecting little change to the balance sheet in the report, the USDA's March crop revision is unusual, and the uncertainty is underpinning the market, analysts say.

Friday March 05, 2010

2010-03-05T14:26:00.007-06:00

Did you know: It was on this day in 1933 during the Great Depression that President Franklin D. Roosevelt declares a 'bank holiday'. This act closed all U.S. banks and froze all financial transactions.

Happy Friday! Corn took another hit after gains this morning and soybeans yo yoed all day only to finish unchanged. Corn finished the day down 7 cents at $3.75. Soybeans are unchanged at $9.42. The strong El Nino that we have been seeing hit it's peak in December. It's now weakening. Precipitation across the central U.S. is typically drier than usual during El Nino springs. China's Premier announced that it wanted to hit 8% GDP which caused an overnight rally in energies and metals. That spilled over into grains, but those gains could not be sustained most of the day. China also announced that they plan to plant more corn acres than beans acres which was nothing less than supportive of Uncle Sam's soybeans.

The Western Corn Belt region basis has remained steady while some bids have softened 2-4 cents at plants due to increased movement. Mostly because farmers are trying to move as much as possible before road postings are put into place. CIF corn is bidding +.35 cents (1 cent weaker than yesterday). CBOT deliveries totaled 1,760 contracts on March corn. Corn was down on a firm US dollar and lower crude prices. A lot of eyes are focused on the March 31 USDA acreage estimates. Last year U.S. total crop acreage declined to nearly 6 million acres.

Private estimates are increasing corn and soybean production for South America.

CIF soybeans are bidding 2 cents better than yesterday at +.60 cents. With corn down 7 cents today, it looks like corn was unable to capitalize on the active fund selling today. CBOT deliveries totaled 641 March soybeans. Our Chinese friends , world's largest soybean importer, will continue to import large soy volumes while looking at their own corn production to meet animal protein demands. Record amount of South American stocks likely to set the stage for lower meal and soy values long term. Though these are the rumors we've been hearing, it will be interesting to see what happens.

Look for a heat wave this weekend. Today we got into the 40's. On Saturday there is a slight possibility of hitting 50 degrees! This should definitely help melt a lot of this snow that still covers much of the Midwest. Warm temperatures on Saturday are going to be followed up my rain on Sunday. Looks like it may get a sloppy out there. Enjoy the weekend!

Don't feed the bears,
Nathaniel Dubravec

Thrusday March 4th, 2010

2010-03-04T16:44:00.002-06:00

The energy market has finally taken a rest. We hit a seven week high on crude yesterday, in the face of a bearish crude DOE report. Crude had builds of 4.1 million bpd, but was still able to jump with the help of a weak dollar. Today crude closed down .66 cents to land just above the $80 dollar mark at $80.21. Heating oil decided to take the day off, and fell .025 cent to close at $2.0687. Gas was down .0138, which isn't much in relationship to its two week rally. Gas has seen gains of about .15 cents in the last two weeks. It seems each day some kind of mass media is threatening $120 plus crude by mid summer and $3.50 gas. I am not sure how much faith I would put into the mass media hysteria, but if you are thinking about diesel prices, its not a bad idea to fill the tank for spring and possibly look at contracting a medium portion of your needs. Technically speaking today's close while lower, still feeds the bulls as the market was unable to settle below the $80 mark. This weeks trade has really tested the $80 mark, but just can't seem to shake it. Some key numbers to watch as we close the week are of course the $80 mark on the low side and $83.95 mark on the high side, which was the January high. If in the next couple sessions the market is unable to settle below $80 look for a quick run up to the $84 mark; Of course product will follow suite.
One thing I have noticed of late has to do with time frame, or clock management for you sports fans, the bulls really seem to be in control of the game. Bad news doesn't last long and then its off to the races for the bulls. I say this, because it has been very small windows of time to take advantage of dips, before its to late. Basically the opposite of the grain market, a very small window to take advantage of the gains. Well ... that's my armchair philosophy of the week, pay attention and take advantage of the small breaks, because it looks like fuel is getting more expensive than the rules of supply and demand say it should.
Thanks for reading,
Zach Winter

Wednesday March 3, 2010

2010-03-03T14:59:00.004-06:00

The AG market spent the day on positive ground. A break in the US greenback, crude oil gains, and strong outside markets had the AG market looking good today. Nearby corn was +5 cents on the day and finished at $3.86. Soybeans also performed well for most of the day and finished unchanged at $9.63. Wheat saw double digit positive gains and closed at $5.16. CZ0 closed at $4.13 and CH1 closed at $4.23. SX0 closed +3.5 cents at $9.42.

February corn insurance is at $3.99 and beans are at $9.23

Corn exports have picked up at 35-45mbu. per week. This is the second highest outstanding sales in the last 10 years. Possible underlying factors to why corn performed well today may be attributed to concerns about the upcoming planting season. The market seems to maintaining some risk premium due to snow pack and possible planting delays this spring. Some see melting snow and the potential for rain as supportive. Others that disagree think that the quicker the snow melts and ground dries the better. Some farmers were unable to complete much fieldwork last fall and need to get that done before planting.

Soybean gains appeared to 'backpedal' as the AG market neared closing. Increased global supplies and an absence of fresh fundamental news may be to blame. Lower soymeal and a record South American soybean harvest served to dampen bullish thoughts of soybean gains.

The Illinois River corn basis firmed today. I know quality issues have not only been a concern for farmers, but also for elevators across Illinois and the country. Nearby corn is at -.19 cents under CK. If you are able to hold on until April you can gain 6.5 cents. There is new talk about ethanol increases in 2010. US AG Secretary is 'optimistic' about higher blends following testing that has been done since a few months ago. We will see what happens within the near future. The US will produce just over 12 billion gallons in the 09/10 crop year.

And that's the way it is,
Nathaniel Dubravec

Tuesday March 02, 2010

2010-03-02T15:58:00.003-06:00

The overnight markets were lower after earlier gains in the evening. This morning the AG markets once again put on a mixed performance. The market ended flat after a choppy day. Nearby corn closed down at $3.70 and soybeans closed at $9.54. Futures across the boards posted modest gains and losses. CZ0 closed at $4.07 and SX0 closed at $9.38. There has been talk that South American soybean crop may have been underestimated. The USDA estimates Argentina production at 53mmt while some sources are estimating the soybean crop between 55mmt and 57mmt. Brazil estimates have remained unchanged at a range of 65-67mmt. Regardless, South American crop is looking stellar and may have a soybean crop in excess of 4.5bbu.

Corn CIF values have fallen 2% from last week. CIF is offering +.37 over CK and +.57 over SK. Our weather forecast for N. Illinois looks relatively quite for the remainder of the week. Surprisingly we are going to be seeing the temperatures climb into the 40's by Friday.

One thing that stands out is the likelihood of a substantial increase in corn acreage across the far eastern and far western Corn Belt. A wet spring is not good for gaining corn acreage, but it certainly plays into the hands of gaining bean acreage. We have also heard of reports that container volumes may decline through the summer as freight rates head to higher ground. Ethanol markets seem to be well supplied as corn basis has slipped some. Soybean basis has mostly stalled at the processor as last week's flat price rally moved soybeans into the pipeline.

Have a good week!
Nathaniel Dubravec

Monday March 1st, 2010

2010-03-01T15:04:00.002-06:00

Corn finished the day lower amid pressure from a firmer dollar, slumping wheat and fund selling. The market was unable to extend last week's rally, which many where expecting follow through fund buying amid first of the month activities. Shortly after the market opened funds failed to show up the party and corn began heading south, ultimately closing down 7 cents. While a stronger dollar has been driving down corn prices, early talk of delayed plantings has helped to stem loses, although with planting a good month away, concern over delayed planting isn't too significant.

Chris Spurlock

2010-02-26T16:21:00.000-06:00

Note: Corn Products in Chicago will close at midnight Friday, February 26, 2010 and will re-open 5AM Monday, March 1, 2010.

Elburn Coop in Morris will be open for corn and soybeans on Monday, March 1, 2010
Elburn Coop in Ottawa will be open for corn on Monday, March 1, 2010.

Elburn Coop in Ottawa finished up our 2nd Non-GMO corn barge today and moved on to regular corn and will continue receiving corn next week.

In today’s trading, grain futures were higher across the board. End of month fund buying contributed to raising futures today. Outside markets were also supportive as crude oil, gold, and stocks all finished in positive territory. Mar corn finished up 5 ¾ today and up 18 for the week. Mar soybeans closed up 9 ½ today and up 6 for the week. Jul Chicago wheat futures finished 15 higher for the day and up 14 ½ for the week.

National average on highway diesel fuel prices rose 7.6 cents in this weeks report reversing 5 weeks of declines. Higher crude oil of late has supported the increase though distillate stocks remain historically high.

Have a great weekend!
Mike Etienne

Wednesday, February 24, 2010

2010-02-24T16:45:00.003-06:00

Good afternoon faithful bloggers! It seemed to be relatively quite today other than the market performing well. Our Ottawa facility completed one of our two non-GMO barges and our Morris facility is still pumping out barges. Prices performed constructively today. The market performed positively with corn up 7 cents at $3.75. Soybeans finished +3 cents at $9.55 and wheat hit $5.00 after a +8 cents day. Soybeans had a late day rally after being down early.

CU0 hit $4.03 on the day and CZ0 reached $4.09. Grain seemed to respond well to weakening US dollar. The river corn basis is -4 cents under the CH0 and soybeans are even.New Orleans is bidding corn at+50 cents over the March and beans at +65 cents. The ethanol mandate increase from 2010 to 2011 is up 200mbu. Compare that to an average increase of 679mbu/year over the past 4 years. Soybean exports still holding up at 35mln last week.

Go Illini,
Nathaniel Dubravec

Tuesday February 23rd, 2010

2010-02-23T16:17:00.002-06:00

Commodity markets had an up and down day today. Early strength in cash soybeans led the way today. Corn finished down 4 cents after being up a modest 1.5 early on. Corn basis remains firm and near normal values, which is pretty good considering the poor quality issues and large carryout for this year.

Soybeans really were the story today as they raced up 16 cents today and took out levels on the futures market not seen since January 19th. Soybean futures rallied enough to spur more cash movement and knocked futures down to finish 9 cents lower. Brazil has been in the news lately for both good yields but also harvest delays do to excessive rain and more rain forecast into the weekend. Argentina is looking for a much needed break from rain and it appears they will be dry through the weekend.

Please remember to regularly check bins on your farm and if any hint of problems arise, please don't hesitate to call for prices for on-farm pick-up.

Scott Meyer

Thursday February 18th, 2010

2010-02-18T17:42:00.003-06:00

Good evening blog readers. Thursday is here and that means it is time for the much anticipated Energy Report to begin. I bring news of energy gains. Crude oil settled higher at close today, leaning closer to the $80 mark at $79.06. The large bounce in today's market was driven by what appeared to be technical buying. This week has provided a large jump in the diesel market, with prices up almost .15 cents on the cash market, expect the pumps to jump. The majority of the gains were futures driven, but basis has seen a .06 cent jump over the week in the Chicago market . The DOE report was interpreted as bullish, even with builds in crude oil of 3.085 million bpd and builds in gas of 1.6 million bpd. But it was draws in diesel of 2.9 million bpd which seemed to be enough to prop the market up for the day. Just in itself the report is kind of neutral, but in context of early week expectation everything but crude is an improvement in demand numbers. The numbers are explained under import reports showing larger than expected crude imports and much lower than anticipated heating oil imports. Demand is still down, with diesel leading the way at 7.9% weaker than this time last year, and gas lagging at about 1.3%. Never less products saw gains every day this week including today's .06 cents on gas, .045 cents on diesel, and $1.73 on crude. Most gains are being attributed to the weak early day dollar, leading buyers back into energy. Looking forward it doesn't seem like a break in gains is in our future, the market really seems focused on getting crude to the $80 mark, if it holds look to spend more on diesel this spring. But... a big but is if the bulls are unable to push it above $80 look for $2.00 plus retracement to provide a temporary break on diesel and gas gains.
Good evening all.
thanks for reading
Zach Winter

Wednesday, February 17, 2010

2010-02-17T13:46:00.004-06:00

Good afternoon bloggers! Corn and soybeans saw pressure today after yesterday's gains. Both commodities were on the defensive for most of the day. Corn fell 7 cents and beans declined 14 cents. Corn finished at $3.60 and soybeans finished at $9.51. It appears that profit taking and the strengthening US dollar kept the commodity market under pressure. Natural gas and crude oil are up on the day. Ethanol margins dropped 7 cents per gallon since last week. On a positive note, corn and soybean basis remains strong on the river. River values for beans peaked last week at +14 CH0 and has backed off since then. Barge freight is remaining steady as well as CIF basis. CIF corn has firmed 2% from last week. US corn export demand is weaker than recent expectations. Demand is weakening due to increased South America competition. Reports are saying that Argentina's crop is 19+mmt. Also there is a possibility of more shipments coming out of Brazil.

Currently, old crop soybean demand remains very strong. With South America's crop looking good, look for US exports to decline in April. US soybean export shipments show a total of 41 mbu has been shipped this week. The biggest receiver, China, is importing 18.6mbu.

The Morris River Terminal has been busy taking grain and loading barges. There is talk that the Marseilles Lock is currently being repaired due to a barge hitting the lock. So far it has not hindered our ability to receive barges. The weather for much of northern Illinois is looking partly cloudy for the next week. There is a chance of snow this Saturday. It's appears weather will remain fairly quiet in the Midwest. South America weather is still looking favorable for Argentina and Brazil.

Regards,
Nathaniel Dubravec

Current Olympic Medal Count:
Germany 9
America 8
France 7

2010-02-13T22:53:00.000-06:00

Note: Corn Products in Chicago will close at midnight Friday, February 12, 2010 and will re-open 5AM Monday, February 15, 2010.

Elburn Coop in Morris will be open for corn and soybeans on Monday , February
15, 2010.
Elburn Coop in Ottawa will be closed Monday, February 15, 2010 re-opening at 7AM Tuesday, February 16, 2010.

In Friday’s trading, grain futures finished mixed. China announced an increase in bank reserve requirements which sparked worries of slower economic growth. Export sales were in line with analysts’ estimates for corn but, disappointing for soybeans. Mar corn finished down 1 ¾ today but, up 10 for the week. Mar soybeans closed up 2 today and up 31 ½ for the week. Jul Chicago wheat futures finished 7 ¼ lower for the day but, 13 ½ for the week.

Locally, CPC announced an increase in discounts for BCFM (broken corn and foreign material) starting February 22, 2010. 5.1% to 6% BCFM will now be discounted 6 cents per bushel. 6.1% to 7% BCFM will be discounted 8 cents per bushel. The scale goes up from there. Previous discount schedule was 5 cents per each % above 5.1%. This continues recent discount adjustments at area river and rail terminals. BCFM management by elevators and producers with on farm storage will be well rewarded this year. Avoiding these increased discounts can add several cents per bushel to the bottom line.

National average on highway diesel fuel prices dropped another 1.2 cents in this weeks report marking the fourth consecutive weekly decline. Lower crude oil prices will likely continue this trend next week.

Have a great weekend!
Mike Etienne

Thursday February 11th, 2010

2010-02-11T15:52:00.002-06:00

For all of you looking forward to the Thursday energy blog, you will have to wait until next week as Zach is out of town this week. Corn futures managed another slight gain today and finished up 1.5 cents. Traders are now looking forward to the Feb 18 Ag Forum for the first hint of new crop corn and soybean acreage. The actual acreage report is Mar 31st. The USDA has to redistribute 7 million acres of winter wheat and CRP acreage into some crop this year. Many are looking for at least 2 million more corn acres and some seeing upwards of 4 million. Corn basis continues to remain firm as the pipeline struggles with getting enough corn in this weak futures market.

Soybeans finished the day up 5.5 cents and could be further supported by tomorrow's USDA export sales number, that is if the government offices can open their doors after this week's blizzard. Harvest delays in SA are pushing our export basis numbers higher as evident by the Illinois river bean bids for nearby. It is unexpected that old crop beans will get $1.50 higher than new crop like it did last year with a 200+ million bushel old crop carryout but we currently have a 50 cent inverse.

Scott Meyer

Wednesday, February 10, 2010

2010-02-10T13:29:00.006-06:00

Good afternoon bloggers! You have probably all heard about the earthquake in the Sycamore, IL region this morning. But did you know that in 1811-1812 there were several earthquakes near St. Louis, MO which reversed the flow of the Mississippi River? Now you know.

It was a good day. Corn finished 3 cents higher at $3.61. Soybeans finished 13 cents higher at $9.37. Crude oil, natural gas, and the Dow Jones have all been in the green as well today.

Soybean basis has been strengthening on the river. Bids at the Illinois River have been significantly higher than what we have been seeing at country elevators. The Morris Terminal is bidding 6 cents over SH0. Reports from Brazil are saying farmers are 10% harvested and 26% sold. The USDA raised soybean exports 25 MBU.

The corn basis continues to firm up on the river market and most processor markets across USA. CH basis is 7 cents under at the river.

The Illinois River has been cooperating and is expected to stay around the 5-6' marker even with this week's precipitation. The weather outlook continues to be favorable for South America. Northern Illinois will begin to see temperatures hovering in the 20's and 30's for the rest of the week. Forecasters are saying snow is to be expected this weekend. Be cautious while driving as drifting snow may here and there.

Oskee wow wow,

Nathaniel Dubravec

Tuesday February 9th, 2010

2010-02-09T16:12:00.002-06:00

USDA report today increased ethanol usage this year by 100 mbu but also decreased exports by 50 mbu as carryout decreased from 1.764 to 1.719 billion bu. Corn followed through on overnight gains and reached 7.5 cents higher before buying cooled down and finished the day up 2.5 cents. Worldwide corn stocks were down slightly from 180.2 mmt to 179.3. The Argentina corn crop was increased 2 mmt and is pegged 4 mmt above last year. Brazil corn production is at 51.0 mmt which is unchanged from last year.

USDA soybean carryout decrease 35 mbu and went from 245 - 210. Increases in exports led the way to lower soybean carryout. If traders were only looking at this, then soybeans should have been up 30-50 cents but they ended down 5 cents. The bad part for soybeans today is the SA crop keeps getting bigger with Brazil up 1 mmt to 66.0 and Argentina holding in at 53 mmt. Combined that is 119 mmt of soybeans this year vs only 89 mmt last year. This means there are 30 mmt more soybeans available or 1.1 billion bushels!

Scott Meyer

Monday February 08, 2010

2010-02-08T15:29:00.002-06:00

Corn ended higher Monday amid short-covering ahead of Tuesday's supply-and-demand report and widespread commodity gains. March corn ended up 4 1/2 cents at $3.56 a bushel, and May corn ended up 4 1/2 cents at $3.67 1/2. Wheat and soybeans also enjoyed a bounce following recent losses, as a weaker dollar gave support to commodities in general. The gains were mostly attributed to short-covering. Prices were up by more than a dime in early trading before retreating. A couple of traders added that the CFTC commitments of traders reports were supportive, as they showed the market has rid itself of many of the longs that have been trying to flee the market since it started its slide last month.

Market participants are looking ahead to Tuesday's supply-and-demand report, which will be released by the U.S. Department of Agriculture at 8:30 a.m. EST. Analysts are expecting a slight reduction in projected 2009-10 U.S. carryout Tuesday, but fundamentally the market has little reason to rally, they said.

2010-02-05T17:01:00.000-06:00

Note: Corn Products in Chicago will close at midnight Friday, February 5, 2010 and will remain closed until 5AM Wednesday, February 10, 2010. CPC is closed for truck deliveries Monday and Tuesday next week.

Elburn Coop in Ottawa will be taking corn on Monday, February 8, 2010.
Elburn Coop in Morris will be taking corn on Monday , February 8, 2010 but, call first on soybeans.

In today’s trading, grain futures finished lower across the board. Lower outside stock and crude oil markets most of the day set the tone for grains. A stronger US dollar is also pressuring commodity prices. Mar corn finished down 2 ½ today and down 5 for the week. Mar soybeans closed down just ½ today and down ½ for the week. Jul Chicago wheat futures finished 1 ¾ lower for the day and even for the week.

National average on highway diesel fuel prices dropped 5.2 cents in this weeks report marking the third weekly decline in a row. Lower crude oil prices will likely continue this trend next week.

Have a great weekend!
Mike Etienne