Thursday April 1st, 2010

Its Energy Thursday, hopefully most are to busy in the field to read the coop blog. But, in case anyone is wondering about the energy market, here is the news; Crude jumped by more than two dollars this week to settle at $84.27, well above this weeks resistance point. Product jumped at the rack this week, a dime on gas and about fifteen cents on diesel. It appears that trade today was highlighted by thinner pre-holiday trade, which will become prevalent Monday as profit takers exit the market. There have been reports of increased money into commodities markets as we begin the second quarter, but the daily directional hand has still been the dollar. We may be moving into a new crude trading pattern which will be the 80-90 dollar range, which has been talked about by hedge fund managers for months. Next week will provide a good market gut check. My advice is fill the tank and do not be scared to lock some gallons, as we move into what will hopefully be a busy spring and summer.
If economic data continues to look positive and the dollar shows more weakness, we could be in for an expensive summer of fuel. At some point we will most likely see a separation from the dollar to fundamentals, but with fundamentals weak, I don't see that coming until the data supports the price, yes that's correct not the other way around.(rather cynical, but self perceived as accurate) Tomorrows unemployment data will be released and today's market gamblers were betting on positive news, believing some job growth has been had. The market will be closed tomorrow, but the employment data could set the tone come Monday.
Have a good weekend and enjoy 80 degrees tomorrow.
Zach Winter

Wednesday March 31, 2010

Today, the market took a brutal beating to say things bluntly. Corn was down 9 cents at $3.45. Soybeans closed down 33 cents at $9.41. Wheat was down another 21 cents at $4.50.

The long waited USDA Report came out today. Ending stocks exceeded trade expectations today, but acres fell off their mark. It showed us that there is still an abundant supply. Corn stocks are around 7.7 bbu. 11% higher than last year and second largest on record. Soybeans were 58mbu above the average and are around 1.3bbu. None of these numbers proved to be good for the market. US planting acres are up 3% since last year. Illinois is up 600,000 corn acres since last year. Indiana is up corn 100,000. Illinois will also have another 100,000 soybean acres. Iowa shows the biggest increase with 300,000 soybean acres.

The strike in South America is officially over until they decide to have another one next harvest.

Though the acres are all up, they are not as high as everyone was anticipating. Both corn and soybeans were 1/2 a million acres shy of what some were estimating. Some are ignoring the 7.694 corn stock number because this year was the lowest corn feeding number for livestock in the second quarter since the 1990's.

The weather today has been the nicest all year. Temperatures reaching into the 70's (some area's 80'). Look for the nice weather to persist and possibilities of rain this coming weekend.

Go Illini,
Nathaniel Dubravec

Tuesday March 30th, 2010

Pre-report trading was lackluster in the beginning with values unchanged throughout most of the day with corn faltering late and soybeans climbing. Below are the estimates for tomorrow morning's report:

Corn Acres 88.9 mil vs 86.5 last year
Bean acres 78.5 m vs 77.5 ly
all wheat acres 53.32 vs 59.1 ly
Cotton acres 10.44 vs 9.15 ly

Grain stocks on Mar 1st
Corn 7.5 billion vs 6.95 last year
Beans 1.2 b vs 1.3 ly
Wheat 1.3 b vs 1.0 ly

As you can see the corn situation is negative with more stocks on hand and more acres planned on being planted. The weather outlook is looking good for getting field work done and some early corn planted. Soybeans are a mixed bag with supplies 100 million less than this time last year but an extra 1 million acres or 45 million bu more expected to be grown. Wheat acres should be dramatically lower while cotton economics have rebounded and so should acres.

Scott Meyer

Monday March 29th, 2010

Corn closed barely in the green today, being pushed into positive territory by a weaker dollar and increase in crude prices, along with soaring soy. Weather forecast are calling for a warm-up in the Midwest this week, which should help to get spring field work going, but outlooks for a rain shower at the end of week are in the picture. Analysts are expecting the government to project increased U.S. corn acreage in 2010 as producers abandon wheat, and corn supplies are expected to be ample.

Estimates from the 23 analysts in the survey ranged from 87 million to 90.15 million. Although corn acreage has in recent months been expected to climb this year due to a decline in wheat acres, soggy soil conditions in the Midwest have tempered those expectations somewhat, as analysts argue that farmers could be compelled to plant soybeans instead of risking delayed corn planting, which typically harms yields.