Factoid: The Chicago Cubs have not won a World Series since 1908. It has been over a century (100 years). That's a long time.
Happy Friday bloggers! Today corn closed down 2 cents @ $3.45. Soybeans closed up 6 cents @ $9.52. Gold is up .69%. Crude oil is down to $84.77/ barrel. Feeder cattle were up and lean hogs down on the day.
Today the USDA Report came out and left many scratching their heads with some numbers. USDA took 100mbu. of corn off of feed which raised USA carryout to 1.899bbu. Corn seemed to have a higher carryout, but not as much as we were thinking. World stocks were up 4.2mmt. Brazil's corn crop was increased 2.5mmt and Argentina's crop was left unchanged. Corn basis has remained steady while soybean basis has seemed to firm recently. CIF corn is bidding +42 cents. CIF soybeans are bidding at +30 cents. Morris nearby corn basis has remained strong at -5 cents.
USDA added 25 mbu. soybeans to export demand and decreased residual demand 25mbu. What confuses people is how will export demand for our beans increase when South America is going to start pumping out soybeans. I was thinking that with residual down, carryout would increase. 'Nay!' said the USDA. Rather than carryout increasing, export demand will increase. This left soybean carryout at 190mbu unchanged. World soybean stocks were up 2.3mmt. Morris soybean basis is -20 cents.
China seemed to react to rumors of import certs. and released about 40ish-mbu. from their reserves to appease Chinese processors. Great weather is being forecasted for the Corn Belt. Farmers are eager to get any remaining field work done and begin planted when we get a break in the weather. The Illinois River has crested and we are able to continue loading barges at our Morris and Ottawa Terminals. The weather is going to warm up later this weekend and is expect to remain nice for all of next week until Friday.
I hope you all have a great weekend.
Nathaniel Dubravec
Friday, April 9, 2010
Thursday, April 8, 2010
Thursday April 8th, 2010
Energy
This weeks crude market has been one of balance. Monday and Tuesday provided a boost, but after a bearish DOE report things have cooled off a bit. We have seen two consecutive days of small losses, totaling about a buck fifty. Crude closed today at $85.39, well within the current trading pattern. US crude inventories rose for the 10Th consecutive week touching levels not seen since June of 09. This weeks DOE report showed builds of 2 million on crude, draws of 2.5 million on gas and an unexpected 1.1 million build on diesel. Refineries were cracking this week, up 1.9% to 84.6%, which hasn't been seen since October of 09.
The last two days of energy loss has been due to pressure from the dollar. As the dollar gains it reduce investment appeal for those using other currencies. Also poor job data, balanced positive retail news today, as 31 chain stores reported 9% sales gains, the largest single month gain since March of 1999.
The two day losses on actual end user product have been minimal in comparison to the recent run up. Retail pump prices on fuel are climbing and not as fast as the actual spot or rack market. Retail fuel margins nation wide dropped last week by about 50%, as retails try to blunt the blow of recent gains. So while the market has dropped the last few days by about .03 cents, don't expect to see it at the pump, as replacement fuel loads are considerably higher than just one weeks ago. The short term fuel outlook is still bullish, don't be surprised to see crude make a considerable run between now and Memorial Day. Product will most likely follow suite, irregardless of short term demand numbers.
It sounds like this weekend will provide some sunshine and warm 70 degree weather. Still a few days until the fields dry out, so after you get the planters in line, be sure to hit your local golf course and help stimulate there early spring economy. Have a great weekend.
Zach Winter
This weeks crude market has been one of balance. Monday and Tuesday provided a boost, but after a bearish DOE report things have cooled off a bit. We have seen two consecutive days of small losses, totaling about a buck fifty. Crude closed today at $85.39, well within the current trading pattern. US crude inventories rose for the 10Th consecutive week touching levels not seen since June of 09. This weeks DOE report showed builds of 2 million on crude, draws of 2.5 million on gas and an unexpected 1.1 million build on diesel. Refineries were cracking this week, up 1.9% to 84.6%, which hasn't been seen since October of 09.
The last two days of energy loss has been due to pressure from the dollar. As the dollar gains it reduce investment appeal for those using other currencies. Also poor job data, balanced positive retail news today, as 31 chain stores reported 9% sales gains, the largest single month gain since March of 1999.
The two day losses on actual end user product have been minimal in comparison to the recent run up. Retail pump prices on fuel are climbing and not as fast as the actual spot or rack market. Retail fuel margins nation wide dropped last week by about 50%, as retails try to blunt the blow of recent gains. So while the market has dropped the last few days by about .03 cents, don't expect to see it at the pump, as replacement fuel loads are considerably higher than just one weeks ago. The short term fuel outlook is still bullish, don't be surprised to see crude make a considerable run between now and Memorial Day. Product will most likely follow suite, irregardless of short term demand numbers.
It sounds like this weekend will provide some sunshine and warm 70 degree weather. Still a few days until the fields dry out, so after you get the planters in line, be sure to hit your local golf course and help stimulate there early spring economy. Have a great weekend.
Zach Winter
Wednesday, April 7, 2010
Wednesday April 7, 2010
Fact of day: It was on this day in 1862 that General Ulysses S. Grant defeated the Confederate army at Shiloh.
Good afternoon! I hope all is well and this finds you in good health and spirits! AG markets were on the defensive for most of the day. Initially down, the market valiantly battled back to end on a positive note. Corn was in the red for most of the day and soybeans saw mixed trade across the board. We hear our Chinese buddies are looking to import some corn. It wasn't until some rumors started of Chinese import certifications that the market responded positively. Corn closed the day at $3.56 up 10 cents. Soybeans were up 8 cents and closed at $9.52.
With news coming from China today and the lack of news this past week, it appeared the market was in dire need of reacting to something. Thankfully it did so positively. Other news is that farmers are getting after it with some field work this past week. Prior to the .5-3" of rain that Illinois has received, a lot of guys were doing some field work and and applying anhydrous. Certain areas in Iowa and Minnesota (along the Mississippi River corridor) have run out of anhydrous. A blessing in disguise for suppliers has been the rain. This has allowed for fertilizer supplies to get replenished. Areas around St. Louis are planting in the high and dry areas. Reports coming from Texas are saying corn is 'knee high'.
Logistic concerns in South America still persist. The labor strikes have officially been resolved until next harvest. Reports from Africa/Middle East have told us that countries are offering premiums for South American corn. Egypt is offering +30 cent premium on South American corn over Uncle Sam corn because of quality issues.
The Illinois River market has seen the corn basis firm this past week. River corn basis is -.045 currently. May basis is -.03. Though the basis has firmed up nicely, it seems that it's going to take some better CBOT prices to encourage some movement. The CIF market has been relatively quite recently and looks like it's going to be a grind for a while. It will be interesting to see what happens with the rally today and if it will shake some bushels loose. The Illinois River CFS (cubic feet per second) has not done much with all the precipitation this spring. Thankfully the water levels have not played too big of a role in loading barges yet. Our Morris Terminal is offering a premium on corn over 54lb. test weight.
Stay classy Illinois,
Nathaniel Dubravec
Good afternoon! I hope all is well and this finds you in good health and spirits! AG markets were on the defensive for most of the day. Initially down, the market valiantly battled back to end on a positive note. Corn was in the red for most of the day and soybeans saw mixed trade across the board. We hear our Chinese buddies are looking to import some corn. It wasn't until some rumors started of Chinese import certifications that the market responded positively. Corn closed the day at $3.56 up 10 cents. Soybeans were up 8 cents and closed at $9.52.
With news coming from China today and the lack of news this past week, it appeared the market was in dire need of reacting to something. Thankfully it did so positively. Other news is that farmers are getting after it with some field work this past week. Prior to the .5-3" of rain that Illinois has received, a lot of guys were doing some field work and and applying anhydrous. Certain areas in Iowa and Minnesota (along the Mississippi River corridor) have run out of anhydrous. A blessing in disguise for suppliers has been the rain. This has allowed for fertilizer supplies to get replenished. Areas around St. Louis are planting in the high and dry areas. Reports coming from Texas are saying corn is 'knee high'.
Logistic concerns in South America still persist. The labor strikes have officially been resolved until next harvest. Reports from Africa/Middle East have told us that countries are offering premiums for South American corn. Egypt is offering +30 cent premium on South American corn over Uncle Sam corn because of quality issues.
The Illinois River market has seen the corn basis firm this past week. River corn basis is -.045 currently. May basis is -.03. Though the basis has firmed up nicely, it seems that it's going to take some better CBOT prices to encourage some movement. The CIF market has been relatively quite recently and looks like it's going to be a grind for a while. It will be interesting to see what happens with the rally today and if it will shake some bushels loose. The Illinois River CFS (cubic feet per second) has not done much with all the precipitation this spring. Thankfully the water levels have not played too big of a role in loading barges yet. Our Morris Terminal is offering a premium on corn over 54lb. test weight.
Stay classy Illinois,
Nathaniel Dubravec
Tuesday, April 6, 2010
Tuesday April 6th, 2010
April showers bring May flowers and puts a halt to field work that we all enjoyed last week. Corn had a lackluster day finishing up 3/4 cent, soybeans up 8 1/2, and wheat up a dime. The markets will be watching weather forecasts which look to be drier and cooler starting Thursday for most of the corn belt. The monthly USDA S&D out Friday should paint a bearish picture with last Wednesday's quarterly report numbers. Corn carryout is projected to continue drifting toward 2.0 billion bushels with a sharp reduction in feed use estimates. Chatter of N. and S. Dakota showing better yield results should also hamper upwards prices. Corn planting progress as of Sunday night shows Missouri at 1% vs 8% avg, with Arkansas, Mississippi, and Alabama all behind normal.
Soybeans up today in light volume trade with positions being evened up ahead of Friday's report. Argentina's government estimating their crop at 55 mmt, up 2 mmt over the current USDA report and TWICE as much as last year!
Scott Meyer
Soybeans up today in light volume trade with positions being evened up ahead of Friday's report. Argentina's government estimating their crop at 55 mmt, up 2 mmt over the current USDA report and TWICE as much as last year!
Scott Meyer
Monday, April 5, 2010
Monday April 5th, 2010
Corn ended higher Monday in a modest short-covering bounce aided by outside markets. The market was higher throughout the session despite weakness in soybeans and wheat. Surging crude oil and a weaker dollar were supportive. Last week's CFTC commitments of traders report showed a large net short position for speculators, which left the market primed for some short-covering. The small gains do not change the market's trend, however.
Soybean futures ended lower Monday, revisiting last week's lows on bearish supply fundamentals. The market is still feeling the affects of last week's larger-than-expected U.S. stocks and plantings reports, with abundant world supplies, and the seasonal shift of export business to the Southern Hemisphere weighing on prices. Rain-producing storm systems forecast to move through the U.S. Midwest in the next week added to the defensive tone of the market.
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