Note: Corn Products in Chicago will be closed MONDAY AND TUESDAY, June 14-15, 2010. They will re-open at 5AM Wednesday, June 16, 2010.
Elburn Coop in Morris will be open for corn and soybeans on Monday, June 14, 2010.
Elburn Coop in Ottawa will be open for corn on Monday, June 14, 2010.
Commodity news was generally supportive today. News that China’s main grain buyer (COFCO) bought another 3 cargoes of US corn gave corn traders some ammunition out of the gate. Word from the Canadian Wheat Board that between 8.5 to 12.5 million acres of all crops might not get planted there supported wheat futures late and spread into corn and soybean markets also. Traders are still digesting Thursday’s USDA supply and demand report where corn used for ethanol was increased significantly which lowered carryout in the current and next crop year. I have seen speculation that part of the reason for the increased corn use estimate is the US government will promote renewable fuels more heavily in the aftermath of the oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico. ADM formally requested US EPA to allow 12% ethanol gasoline blends this week. Good timing on their part. Weather conditions are generally good but, there are some areas that have seen too much rain recently. This has limited soybean planting in those areas and hampered growth of crops already in the ground. Export sales were generally good yesterday (and much improved from last week) for corn and soybeans. However no new corn sales to China appeared and an unusually large (for this time of year) amount of 2009/10 soybean sales to Japan has been questioned. Weather forecasts favorable for crop development and potential for a very large corn crop provide resistance for corn prices. Large amounts of imported soybeans at Chinese ports has caused China to cancel several cargoes of soybeans from South America. Though US stocks of old crop soybeans are tight, lack of Chinese buying interest in the world market limits any rally of soybean prices. Locally soybean basis continues to be strong nearby (and inverted). We continue to offer free DP until October 15, 2010 for soybeans in storage or delivered to Elburn Coop facilities.
In today’s trading, grain and soybean futures were all positive at the close. July corn finished up 6 ¼ for the day and up 9 ½ for the week. July soybeans closed up 11 ¼ and up 11 ½ for the week. July Chicago wheat futures finished 7 ½ higher today and up 5 for the week. Outside markets for equities and crude oil were generally weaker most of the day with disappointing retail sales being reported this morning. Equities did recover to post a gain late.
National average on highway diesel fuel prices were lower for the fourth week in a row dropping 3.4 cents in the latest report. Crude oil prices stayed in a narrow range recently and this should limit fuel prices for the time being. Crude stocks dropped slightly this week while gasoline stocks were steady and distillate (diesel) stocks rose slightly. Stocks of all three products are historically high.
Have a great weekend!
Mike Etienne
Friday, June 11, 2010
Thursday, June 10, 2010
USDA Update: 06/10/10
USDA crop report released at 7:30 am today, market calls are 10 - 15 higher for corn and soybeans.
The big news in today's report is on increased corn demand for ethanol production. USDA increased the 2009/10 crop ethanol usage to 4.55 bbu. up from 4.4 bbu. Total corn demand is forecast up 135 incorporating a slight reduction in corn feed usage. For the 2010/11 crop year USDA increased the ethanol portion of corn demand by 100 mbu to 4.7 bbu.
World corn numbers were uneventful so the net impact of the reports today is a reduced U.S. corn carryout estimate to 1.6 bbu for this year and 1.573 bbu for next year which is a 245 mbu reduction from the May estimate. USDA did not change production estimates for 2010 corn or soybeans this month.
The soybean report didn't give a lot to trade on as soybean crush for meal/oil was increased 5 mbu but no other changes were noted, ending stocks are now estimated at 185 mbu. The world soybean numbers didn't change much either with a .6 million ton reduction in the Chinese soybean crop the only adjustment of any significance.
In other news the weekly export sales report showed great improvement over last week for corn and soybeans with corn sales at 40.1 and 5.6 for old and new crop respectively and soybeans at 15.5 and 4.8 mbu. Both commodities weekly sales figures were above expectations and should lend to the higher grain market calls.
Phil Farrell
The big news in today's report is on increased corn demand for ethanol production. USDA increased the 2009/10 crop ethanol usage to 4.55 bbu. up from 4.4 bbu. Total corn demand is forecast up 135 incorporating a slight reduction in corn feed usage. For the 2010/11 crop year USDA increased the ethanol portion of corn demand by 100 mbu to 4.7 bbu.
World corn numbers were uneventful so the net impact of the reports today is a reduced U.S. corn carryout estimate to 1.6 bbu for this year and 1.573 bbu for next year which is a 245 mbu reduction from the May estimate. USDA did not change production estimates for 2010 corn or soybeans this month.
The soybean report didn't give a lot to trade on as soybean crush for meal/oil was increased 5 mbu but no other changes were noted, ending stocks are now estimated at 185 mbu. The world soybean numbers didn't change much either with a .6 million ton reduction in the Chinese soybean crop the only adjustment of any significance.
In other news the weekly export sales report showed great improvement over last week for corn and soybeans with corn sales at 40.1 and 5.6 for old and new crop respectively and soybeans at 15.5 and 4.8 mbu. Both commodities weekly sales figures were above expectations and should lend to the higher grain market calls.
Phil Farrell
Wednesday, June 9, 2010
Wednesday June 9, 2010
Fact of the day: In 2009, corn was valued at $42 billion and soybeans were valued at $32 billion.
Good evening bloggers! Today the board positively responded with a +1-2 cent bounce in corn and a mighty 1-12 cent rally in soybeans. Weaker dollar and stronger outside markets seemed to play a role in today's rally.
Producers have not been completely convinced by the board's weak performance as of late. Though the basis has been firm for both corn and soybeans, producers have been reluctant to let go of any corn or soybeans left in their possession. Hopefully today's momentum will carryover into tonight and tomorrow and bring prices up. The river basis has been firming due to the lack of farmer movement, but the ethanol processors' basis has been deteriorating as well. We are looking forward to a USDA report coming out tomorrow (Thursday). We are not expecting too much of a change in corn and soybean stocks, but you should keep an eye on the import/export numbers. Crop conditions have not changed except for a 3% increase in 'excellent condition'.
Nearby corn was up +1 cent and closed at $3.38. Nearby soybeans were up +12 cents and closed at $9.43. July futures rose 2 cents on the CBOT. This is the second straight gain. Prior to today, a rise in supplies caused for a 19% price decline. Earlier this week when the market rallied, the market fell the following day. Let's hope and pray that the CBOT will continue to rally throughout the night and into tomorrow. The weather continues to look great for Illinois and the rest of the corn belt. We had a scare that the Illinois River was going to rise quite a bit, but thankfully the rain missed us. We will be able to continue to load barges without worrying about the river rising for a while now. Have a good evening.
Stay classy Illinois,
Nathaniel Dubravec
Good evening bloggers! Today the board positively responded with a +1-2 cent bounce in corn and a mighty 1-12 cent rally in soybeans. Weaker dollar and stronger outside markets seemed to play a role in today's rally.
Producers have not been completely convinced by the board's weak performance as of late. Though the basis has been firm for both corn and soybeans, producers have been reluctant to let go of any corn or soybeans left in their possession. Hopefully today's momentum will carryover into tonight and tomorrow and bring prices up. The river basis has been firming due to the lack of farmer movement, but the ethanol processors' basis has been deteriorating as well. We are looking forward to a USDA report coming out tomorrow (Thursday). We are not expecting too much of a change in corn and soybean stocks, but you should keep an eye on the import/export numbers. Crop conditions have not changed except for a 3% increase in 'excellent condition'.
Nearby corn was up +1 cent and closed at $3.38. Nearby soybeans were up +12 cents and closed at $9.43. July futures rose 2 cents on the CBOT. This is the second straight gain. Prior to today, a rise in supplies caused for a 19% price decline. Earlier this week when the market rallied, the market fell the following day. Let's hope and pray that the CBOT will continue to rally throughout the night and into tomorrow. The weather continues to look great for Illinois and the rest of the corn belt. We had a scare that the Illinois River was going to rise quite a bit, but thankfully the rain missed us. We will be able to continue to load barges without worrying about the river rising for a while now. Have a good evening.
Stay classy Illinois,
Nathaniel Dubravec
Tuesday, June 8, 2010
Tuesday June 8th, 2010
Corn up 1.5, soybeans dn 4.0 today as the markets seem to find some support at least in the corn market. The weather continues to dominate trade talk which has been bearish. Are there areas where soybeans can not be finished planting and corn is suffering from too much wet weather, yes. Are there way more areas that are benefiting from above normal temps, early planting, and adequate moisture, again answer is yes. The national corn crop is rated 76% G/E with Minnesota at a record 92%, Nebraska 85% but eastern corn belt states lagging from too much moisture. The 76% national G/E is the 3rd best in the last 23 years.
Soybeans couldn't hold their ground today as the crop ratings of 75% G/E is best rated crop for this time in the last 24 years! New crop November 2010 futures dropped below $9.00 for first time since October of last year. USDA monthly crop report out Thursday morning and extended weather forecast should point direction of futures nearby.
3 tenths of rain in the gauge here at the Sycamore office so far today with more in the works for tonight.
Scott Meyer
Soybeans couldn't hold their ground today as the crop ratings of 75% G/E is best rated crop for this time in the last 24 years! New crop November 2010 futures dropped below $9.00 for first time since October of last year. USDA monthly crop report out Thursday morning and extended weather forecast should point direction of futures nearby.
3 tenths of rain in the gauge here at the Sycamore office so far today with more in the works for tonight.
Scott Meyer
Monday, June 7, 2010
Monday June 7th, 2010
Corn continued on its downward slide today, closing down over 4 cents. In the past 6 trading days corn has lost 10%, the largest drop since January as the prospects of favorable weather conditions, rising dollar and falling crude pushed it lower. The USDA weekly crop progress report showed good to excellent rating of 76%, unchanged from last week, analyst were looking for a 1% to 3% improvement this week.
Soybeans ended the session fairly flat, as prices were unable to launch an aggressive push in either direction amid lack of news as well. The USDA reported their first weekly crop conditions for soybeans tonight at 75% good to excellent, analyst were predicting between 65% to 75%.
Heavy thunderstorms focus on key areas of the Corn Belt through Wednesday, further boosting topsoil moisture for sufficiently moist vegetative corn. A notably warmer pattern begins later this week and affects the Corn Belt, but dryness does not coincide with warmth as thunderstorms redevelop during the weekend.
Chris Spurlock
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