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Friday, August 20, 2010
Tuesday, August 17, 2010
Tuesday, August 17, 2010
Crop conditions have clearly been deteriorating over the past 3 weeks nationwide in Corn. G/E ratings were down 2% on Monday night and thoughts of smaller crops have pushed corn prices near highs for the year on the Chicago Board of Trade. Illinois was down 1% and now sits at 63% vs 62% at this time last year. Iowa is down to 68% vs 77% last year, Nebraska 83 vs 77 ly, MN 90 vs 74 last year. Corn finished up 7 cents today with Dec 2010 futures at $4.30. Funds are estimated long 350,000 contracts of corn. The Pro Farmer crop tour is going on this week with results published at the end of the week. So far, estimates and conditions are closely reflecting the USDA crop ratings of Monday night.
Soybean ratings have leveled off this week, with the USDA projecting 66% national G/E rating vs last weeks 66% and in line with last year at 66%. Illinois is at 64 vs 60 ly, Iowa 69 vs 77 ly, MN 88 vs 67 ly, and Indiana 59 vs 60 ly. Soybean exports continue to impress, as does the new crop basis levels for Sep - Jan 2011. Bottom line, there is huge demand for our soybeans throughout the world during these 5 months!
Wheat has largely calmed down after losing nearly $2 off it's blow-off top earlier this month. The Russian wheat crop implications will take months to sort out but many believe our wheat crop along with higher futures prices will stem the shortfall very quickly, there are a lot of acres throughout the world that can grow wheat if the price is right, acres that aren't necessarily being used for much of anything right now.
Enjoy the cooler weather.
Scott Meyer
Soybean ratings have leveled off this week, with the USDA projecting 66% national G/E rating vs last weeks 66% and in line with last year at 66%. Illinois is at 64 vs 60 ly, Iowa 69 vs 77 ly, MN 88 vs 67 ly, and Indiana 59 vs 60 ly. Soybean exports continue to impress, as does the new crop basis levels for Sep - Jan 2011. Bottom line, there is huge demand for our soybeans throughout the world during these 5 months!
Wheat has largely calmed down after losing nearly $2 off it's blow-off top earlier this month. The Russian wheat crop implications will take months to sort out but many believe our wheat crop along with higher futures prices will stem the shortfall very quickly, there are a lot of acres throughout the world that can grow wheat if the price is right, acres that aren't necessarily being used for much of anything right now.
Enjoy the cooler weather.
Scott Meyer
Monday, August 9, 2010
Monday August 9th, 2010
Corn ended lower in a see-saw session, as the market tracked volatile wheat prices. There was little fresh news for the corn market to digest, as weather for the crop remains mostly benign. Weather forecasts are showing less extreme heat. The market swung between gains and losses, and ended lower as the wheat market stumbled into the close. The market is currently awaiting Thursday's supply and demand report from Uncle Sam. Weekly crop progress report shows corn at 71% good to excellent, 97% silking, 52% dough, and 14% dented.
Soybeans ended mixed, with nearby contracts retreating on a combination of spillover weakness from wheat, the unwinding of old/new crop spreads and farmer selling. The weakness in the nearby contracts show farmers are taking advantage of rallies to clean out remaining old crop stocks. Deferred month futures contracts representing crops to be harvested in autumn backpedaled from early session highs, but ended higher on a steady dose of export demand from China, and ongoing concerns about crops moving through their critical growth stage. However, favorable near term Midwest crop weather managed to take some edge off prices.
Soybeans ended mixed, with nearby contracts retreating on a combination of spillover weakness from wheat, the unwinding of old/new crop spreads and farmer selling. The weakness in the nearby contracts show farmers are taking advantage of rallies to clean out remaining old crop stocks. Deferred month futures contracts representing crops to be harvested in autumn backpedaled from early session highs, but ended higher on a steady dose of export demand from China, and ongoing concerns about crops moving through their critical growth stage. However, favorable near term Midwest crop weather managed to take some edge off prices.
Tuesday, August 3, 2010
Tuesday August 3, 2010
Good afternoon bloggers. Today corn finished down UNCH to -3 cents. Fall corn closed UNCH @ $4.04. Beans were up UNCH to +9 cents. Fall beans closed +8 cents @ $10.18. Wheat closed down -14 cents at $7.10. After last night's performance, we were unsure how the market was going to open today. Corn seemed to jump all over the board for most the day and unfortunately closed down. Beans were on positive ground for most of the day and wheat closed down. Thankfully wheat's poor performance didn't pull corn or beans down too much today.
The market appears to be driven by Black Sea area drought scares in Russia. This bullish news seemed to encourage speculators to pour more than $10 billion into corn, beans, and wheat. This is why the market has flourished in recent weeks. However fund players seem to be standing our their largest combined net long position since the first half of 2008. Fund buyers are noticing that chart patterns are looking increasingly tired. Some analysts say this is because the rally we have witness is based completely on fear, emotion, and momentum.
USDA crop report came out today and has corn pegged at 71% good/excellent condition. Beans are at 66% good/excellent condition. Weather in the Midwest seems to be good overall. There are some dry areas and wet areas, but overall producers' crop are looking good. Our Canadian brethren recently went through a harsh string of storms which brought hail and strong winds. This wiped out crops in parts of central Manitoba.
Construction in Morris is going well. The scale has been taken apart. Concrete has been ripped up around the scale and office area. Crews are working to pour more concrete on the west side of the elevator and the scale house has been gutted. Our dump shed has also been demolished and a new one will stand in it's place.
Stay classy Illinois,
Nathaniel Dubravec
The market appears to be driven by Black Sea area drought scares in Russia. This bullish news seemed to encourage speculators to pour more than $10 billion into corn, beans, and wheat. This is why the market has flourished in recent weeks. However fund players seem to be standing our their largest combined net long position since the first half of 2008. Fund buyers are noticing that chart patterns are looking increasingly tired. Some analysts say this is because the rally we have witness is based completely on fear, emotion, and momentum.
USDA crop report came out today and has corn pegged at 71% good/excellent condition. Beans are at 66% good/excellent condition. Weather in the Midwest seems to be good overall. There are some dry areas and wet areas, but overall producers' crop are looking good. Our Canadian brethren recently went through a harsh string of storms which brought hail and strong winds. This wiped out crops in parts of central Manitoba.
Construction in Morris is going well. The scale has been taken apart. Concrete has been ripped up around the scale and office area. Crews are working to pour more concrete on the west side of the elevator and the scale house has been gutted. Our dump shed has also been demolished and a new one will stand in it's place.
Stay classy Illinois,
Nathaniel Dubravec
Wednesday, July 28, 2010
Wednesday July 28, 2010
MORRIS RIVER TERMINAL IS WILL BE CLOSED FOR GRAIN DELIVERIES BEGINNING AUGUST 2, 2010. REPAIRS AND IMPROVEMENTS ARE SCHEDULED TO LAST THE DURATION OF AUGUST.
Hello bloggers! Today corn, beans, and wheat posted impressive gains on the day
Fall corn +14 cents @ $3.91
Fall beans +12 cents @ $9.78
Wheat +20 cents @ $6.47
Corn closed the day UP +10 to +14 cents. Corn and all commodities were up on the day due to foreign weather concerns, Chinese purchases, and technical buying. Russia, Australia, Europe, and other regions of the world are still working with a drought. Fears of declining world stocks of grain definitely helped boost the market today. Russian agricultural analysts said the drought may nearly halve grain exports by Russia to 12 million tons in the 2010/11 crop year started on July 1 from 22 million tons in 2009/10.
Not only is Russia and other countries having troubles, this is coupled with growing Chinese demand. China purchased another 120K tons of beans from the US this morning and is suspected that the USDA underestimated the amount bought from Uncle Sam. China is raising more livestock and has a rapidly growing population. Their demand for grain has drastically increased and this demand is expected to be long term. Thought these are all major reasons for the markets to be up today, analysts suspect technical buying has been the main catalyst for stronger corn and bean values today.
Stay classy Illinois,
Nathaniel Dubravec
Hello bloggers! Today corn, beans, and wheat posted impressive gains on the day
Fall corn +14 cents @ $3.91
Fall beans +12 cents @ $9.78
Wheat +20 cents @ $6.47
Corn closed the day UP +10 to +14 cents. Corn and all commodities were up on the day due to foreign weather concerns, Chinese purchases, and technical buying. Russia, Australia, Europe, and other regions of the world are still working with a drought. Fears of declining world stocks of grain definitely helped boost the market today. Russian agricultural analysts said the drought may nearly halve grain exports by Russia to 12 million tons in the 2010/11 crop year started on July 1 from 22 million tons in 2009/10.
Not only is Russia and other countries having troubles, this is coupled with growing Chinese demand. China purchased another 120K tons of beans from the US this morning and is suspected that the USDA underestimated the amount bought from Uncle Sam. China is raising more livestock and has a rapidly growing population. Their demand for grain has drastically increased and this demand is expected to be long term. Thought these are all major reasons for the markets to be up today, analysts suspect technical buying has been the main catalyst for stronger corn and bean values today.
Stay classy Illinois,
Nathaniel Dubravec
Tuesday, July 27, 2010
Tuesday, July 27th, 2010
Corn and soybeans looked to stage a classic dead-cat-bounce today with corn up 4 and beans up 6 cents in the overnight trading but couldn't hold their strength in the day session. Corn closed down 1 cent with new crop beans down 1/2 cent in a day of consolidation. Fundamentally traders are playing tug-of-war with potential record US Corn and Soybeans against devastated Russian crops and below average China crops. Corn is rated at 72% G/E and the crop index is 106 vs last year's 104.5 which resulted in a record yield. Currently this is the best rated corn crop since the big one of 2004.
Corn G/E ratings
State 2009 2010
IA 80 70
NE 78 85
SD 73 76
ND 71 88
MO 59 50
KS 74 72
IL 62 65
IN 63 62
OH 72 61
MI 52 79
WI 55 79
US 70 72
Old crop corn damage has all but shut off the export system with an estimated 500 barges or 27.5 mbu of damage barges sitting on the river in New Orleans waiting for better new crop corn to blend with. The Mississippi River is also at a high enough levels after last weeks rains in IA, WI, and Northern IL to shut down 5 locks to barge traffic. It will be import for water levels to recede heading into harvest so elevators can empty out the grain already sold to the market to make room for the new crop.
Scott Meyer
Corn G/E ratings
State 2009 2010
IA 80 70
NE 78 85
SD 73 76
ND 71 88
MO 59 50
KS 74 72
IL 62 65
IN 63 62
OH 72 61
MI 52 79
WI 55 79
US 70 72
Old crop corn damage has all but shut off the export system with an estimated 500 barges or 27.5 mbu of damage barges sitting on the river in New Orleans waiting for better new crop corn to blend with. The Mississippi River is also at a high enough levels after last weeks rains in IA, WI, and Northern IL to shut down 5 locks to barge traffic. It will be import for water levels to recede heading into harvest so elevators can empty out the grain already sold to the market to make room for the new crop.
Scott Meyer
Monday, July 26, 2010
Monday July 26th, 2010
The absence of any significant weather threat to U.S. Midwest crops based on weather forecasts through mid August pressured corn futures prices Monday. Nearby September corn settled 7 1/4 cents lower at $3.64, and December corn ended 6 1/2 cents lower at $3.78 a bushel. The lack of a weather concern forced market participants to reduce risk exposure, as current weather forecasts support good crop production potential. Corn futures had previously rallied on outlooks for hot, dry weather and excessive rains in other parts of the U.S. crop belt to potentially undermine crop yield potential. However, extended weather forecasts do not pose a threat to production potential, enticing traders that previously bet on weather producing bullish price action to cover some previously bought positions. USDA weekly crop progress report showed corn at 72% good to excellent, down 1% from last week.
Wednesday, July 21, 2010
Wednesday July 21, 2010
***Morris River Terminal will be closed August for grain delivery due to updating the facility and new scale.***
Good afternoon bloggers! Today the market up and firm on the close.
Nearby corn +6 cents $3.80
Fall corn +6 cents $3.93
Nearby beans +3 cents $10.15
Fall beans +5 cents $9.78
Nearby wheat +11 cents $5.88
Today wheat led the charge and corn and beans followed suit. Technical buying seemed to be the 'name of the game' today and trade attempted to make up for the slip in the market the past few days. Corn and beans tried a few times to break the 5-6 cent range, but were both held to modest gains due to a very favorable weather outlook for the Corn Belt. There was a rumor circulating about the market that the Chinese purchased another 2-3 cargoes of US beans. There has been no confirmation as of yet on the purchase. The Gulf is bidding steady on beans at +95 cents over the August contract. Gulf corn is also steady at +35 cents over the July contract. Morris river corn basis has firmed a few cents as well and cash corn is $3.52.
Argentina is the number 2 corn supplier in the world following the USA. Argentina trimmed its bean planting estimates by 3%. Brazil seemed to get the memo and increased their bean estimates by 3%. Argentina also is on the list of top world wheat producers. Argentina farmers have produced less wheat than usual of the last 2 years due to the economy and weather conditions. Farmers continue to have issues in regards to Argentina wheat harvest. The USDA has US wheat production pegged at12 mil. tonnes for the 2010/11 forecast.
The Morris Terminal has been busy lately. We were taking wheat a few weeks ago and were able to complete a wheat barge. Beans and corn have been the usual as of late. Over the past few weeks, damaged grain has slowly been creeping up and we are working our very best to help producers out. Many elevators (including our river competition) have rejected loads greater than 5% damage. If you have any questions in regards to handling grain, discount schedules, or merchandising please do not hesitate to call. We will do our best to accommodate you
Stay classy Illinois,
Nathaniel Dubravec
Good afternoon bloggers! Today the market up and firm on the close.
Nearby corn +6 cents $3.80
Fall corn +6 cents $3.93
Nearby beans +3 cents $10.15
Fall beans +5 cents $9.78
Nearby wheat +11 cents $5.88
Today wheat led the charge and corn and beans followed suit. Technical buying seemed to be the 'name of the game' today and trade attempted to make up for the slip in the market the past few days. Corn and beans tried a few times to break the 5-6 cent range, but were both held to modest gains due to a very favorable weather outlook for the Corn Belt. There was a rumor circulating about the market that the Chinese purchased another 2-3 cargoes of US beans. There has been no confirmation as of yet on the purchase. The Gulf is bidding steady on beans at +95 cents over the August contract. Gulf corn is also steady at +35 cents over the July contract. Morris river corn basis has firmed a few cents as well and cash corn is $3.52.
Argentina is the number 2 corn supplier in the world following the USA. Argentina trimmed its bean planting estimates by 3%. Brazil seemed to get the memo and increased their bean estimates by 3%. Argentina also is on the list of top world wheat producers. Argentina farmers have produced less wheat than usual of the last 2 years due to the economy and weather conditions. Farmers continue to have issues in regards to Argentina wheat harvest. The USDA has US wheat production pegged at12 mil. tonnes for the 2010/11 forecast.
The Morris Terminal has been busy lately. We were taking wheat a few weeks ago and were able to complete a wheat barge. Beans and corn have been the usual as of late. Over the past few weeks, damaged grain has slowly been creeping up and we are working our very best to help producers out. Many elevators (including our river competition) have rejected loads greater than 5% damage. If you have any questions in regards to handling grain, discount schedules, or merchandising please do not hesitate to call. We will do our best to accommodate you
Stay classy Illinois,
Nathaniel Dubravec
Tuesday, July 20, 2010
Tuesday July 20th, 2010
Corn was under pressure from the open and traded lower all day in light volume closing down 7 cents. Funds sold an estimated 8000 contracts today and have sold an est. 18,000 contracts this week. Weather forecasts are maintaining no ridge of hot dry for the next 2 weeks. Large amounts of moisture have been reported in S Iowa, N Missouri and southern half of Illinois over the last 48 hrs. Poor ethanol margins, poor quality, and large producer selling since July 1st have all weighed on corn basis especially the Illinois River system. Currently at Morris there is 33 cents of carry built in from nearby to Dec 1st!
Soybeans made their daily low early on and bounced back modestly to close 3 cents higher. Funds were actually net buyers as the USDA announced another 115,000 MT of new crop beans sold to China. Soybean basis has remained firm with exports continuing to be loaded out and old crop stocks being fairly tight. We are getting to that time of year when end users will be counting down the days until new crop and trying to guess when they can break the basis and premium they are paying for old crop.
Scott Meyer
Soybeans made their daily low early on and bounced back modestly to close 3 cents higher. Funds were actually net buyers as the USDA announced another 115,000 MT of new crop beans sold to China. Soybean basis has remained firm with exports continuing to be loaded out and old crop stocks being fairly tight. We are getting to that time of year when end users will be counting down the days until new crop and trying to guess when they can break the basis and premium they are paying for old crop.
Scott Meyer
Friday, July 16, 2010
Friday July 16, 2010
Corn closed firm on Friday on concerns about some forecasts for hotter and drier weather in the United States in late July and August kept away aggressive selling and lifted corn to a firm close. The world is enduring the hottest year on record, according to a U.S. national weather analysis, causing droughts worldwide and a concern for U.S. farmers counting on another bumper year.
Soybean futures ended mostly lower Friday, as the market consolidated in choppy trade following the week's sharp run-up in prices. The market staged a modest correction from Thursday's 2% gains, with traders reducing risk exposure heading into the weekend.
Wednesday, July 14, 2010
Wednesday July 14, 2010
Good afternoon bloggers! Today's heat index of 93 degrees tells me it's summer. Not only was the temperature a high for the area, the markets also finished up on the day. Corn, beans, and wheat were all up. Corn was up 6-9 cents. Beans were up 2-7 cents. Wheat was up 2-10 cents.
Nearby corn +9 cents @ $3.84
Fall corn +9 cents @ $3.96
Nearby beans +2 @ $9.97
Fall beans up +7 @ $9.62
Wheat +10 @ $5.59
Fund buying, weak US dollar, and lack of producer movement supported the market today. Technical buying was 'egged on' by a weak US dollar for most of the trading session. The market saw a nice rally last week, but not enough to shake producer bushels loose. It appears that there is still quite a bit of grain in producers' hands and they are waiting to see how far the rally can take them. There was also some talk this morning of China showing interest purchasing more US corn. Last year, China had a difficult time with crops. This contributed to over 1 million tons of corn from the US to China which was the largest in 15 years.
I think another reason for corn, beans, and wheat to find the green today was based on fears of weather. Europe, Ukraine, and regions of Russia are going through a tough time right with hot and dry weather. Forecasts for European wheat is down, Russia is going through a drought, and Canada is receiving too much rain. Though the Midwest has received a lot of rain in pockets across the region, the weather outlook is looking good for crops in the coming weeks. Rain is expected this evening and tomorrow. The weekend is looking clear and we shouldn't see rain until the middle of next week.
The Gulf is bidding +40 to +44 cents for US #2 corn. US #1 soybeans are getting bought at +92 to +98.
Stay classy Illinois,
Nathaniel Dubravec
Nearby corn +9 cents @ $3.84
Fall corn +9 cents @ $3.96
Nearby beans +2 @ $9.97
Fall beans up +7 @ $9.62
Wheat +10 @ $5.59
Fund buying, weak US dollar, and lack of producer movement supported the market today. Technical buying was 'egged on' by a weak US dollar for most of the trading session. The market saw a nice rally last week, but not enough to shake producer bushels loose. It appears that there is still quite a bit of grain in producers' hands and they are waiting to see how far the rally can take them. There was also some talk this morning of China showing interest purchasing more US corn. Last year, China had a difficult time with crops. This contributed to over 1 million tons of corn from the US to China which was the largest in 15 years.
I think another reason for corn, beans, and wheat to find the green today was based on fears of weather. Europe, Ukraine, and regions of Russia are going through a tough time right with hot and dry weather. Forecasts for European wheat is down, Russia is going through a drought, and Canada is receiving too much rain. Though the Midwest has received a lot of rain in pockets across the region, the weather outlook is looking good for crops in the coming weeks. Rain is expected this evening and tomorrow. The weekend is looking clear and we shouldn't see rain until the middle of next week.
The Gulf is bidding +40 to +44 cents for US #2 corn. US #1 soybeans are getting bought at +92 to +98.
Stay classy Illinois,
Nathaniel Dubravec
Tuesday, July 13, 2010
Tuesday July 13th, 2010
The corn market today suffered from a better than expected crop condition rating of 73% G/E last evening when many traders thought the number would come in around 69-70%. Corn finished the day down 4.5 cents on the CBOT with cash corn on the Illinois river down 6-7 cents with a weaker basis. Barge freight has jumped about 80 pts all the way up to and over 400% with increased demand to move out the old crop ahead of good looking new crop. Corn ratings for this week are the highest since the record crop of 2004 with only Iowa lower than last year's record production. Corn pollination seems to be progressing nicely throughout the Midwest with temps staying in the 85-95 range and no 100+ readings in the corn belt. There is scattered talk of dry conditions popping up in the Eastern corn belt and that will be closely monitored as forecasts call for the highest temps of the year next week.
Soybean ratings were down another 1% and sit at 65% G/E providing support to new crop beans as they were up 3.5 cents and basis continues to be very strong on old and new crop. Not surprising, the rain plagued states of Iowa and Missouri have the worst rated beans at 69% and 44% respectively.
Wheat led the way higher today as serious concerns arise over drought and extreme heat in the former Soviet Union. We have seen reports that this year's drought is surpassed by only 5 out of the last 100 years! Locally, wheat harvest has almost finished with poor results on both yield and test weight.
Scott Meyer
Soybean ratings were down another 1% and sit at 65% G/E providing support to new crop beans as they were up 3.5 cents and basis continues to be very strong on old and new crop. Not surprising, the rain plagued states of Iowa and Missouri have the worst rated beans at 69% and 44% respectively.
Wheat led the way higher today as serious concerns arise over drought and extreme heat in the former Soviet Union. We have seen reports that this year's drought is surpassed by only 5 out of the last 100 years! Locally, wheat harvest has almost finished with poor results on both yield and test weight.
Scott Meyer
Monday, July 12, 2010
Monday July 12th, 2010
Corn ended lower Monday as benign weather forecasts ease concerns about the U.S. crop. The market was lower throughout the session, and likely needs a weather scare to extend its recent rally. But forecasts call for average temperatures and adequate rainfall over the next few days. The crop is entering its crucial pollination phase in many areas, which goes a long way to determining a crop's yield. Technically, after the December contract failed to break through its May high on Friday, the market's upward momentum seems to be waning. One said that the 200-day moving average at $4.02 1/2 will be tough to pierce unless we start to have some serious problems with the crop. Crop progress report shows corn at 73% good to excellent, traders were expecting a slight decrease.
Soybeans ended mixed on Monday as old-crop contracts gained for an eighth straight session on tight supplies and deferred months fell due to weather speculation and some light profit-taking. You still have tight stocks, which is giving us the stronger up-front bean market, but at the same time harvest is not far away.
Soybeans ended mixed on Monday as old-crop contracts gained for an eighth straight session on tight supplies and deferred months fell due to weather speculation and some light profit-taking. You still have tight stocks, which is giving us the stronger up-front bean market, but at the same time harvest is not far away.
Friday, July 9, 2010
USDA Update: 07/09/10
The USDA report on corn this morning turned out to be relatively uneventful as the end effect was to reduce ending stocks for this year by 125 mbu with next year ending stocks down 200 mbu. These were despite a bullish June 30 Stocks and acreage report where acres were 1.4 million below trade estimates and June 1 grain stocks were 300 mbu below expectations. Corn production for this year is estimated at 13.245 billion bushels using a 163.5 bpa yield estimate. The only major change on demand for the 2010 crop year was a 50 mbu reduction in exports to 1.95 billion, equal to the current year. Feed usage for the 2009 crop year was increased 175 while use for ethanol saw a surprising reduction of 50 mbu. Early calls as of 8:00 seems to be 3 - 10 lower for the corn market.
The soybean report didn't really didn't do much as carryout levels were largely left unchanged with production up 35 mbu for 2010 to account for the increased acres reported June 30 with an increase in both crush and exports to leave expected Sept. 1 2011 carryout at 360 mbu. World soybean numbers don't seem to have a significant impact at this point. The soybean market is expected to be a follower today, early calls are 10 - 20 lower.
If we trade higher it’ll be because of weather concerns and outside markets, not today's report. Most commodities traded and closed already over 100 day moving averages and that could stimulate more short covering by trend following funds as they’re modestly short corn and beans. If they want to push a long we’ll end up higher today.
Phil
The soybean report didn't really didn't do much as carryout levels were largely left unchanged with production up 35 mbu for 2010 to account for the increased acres reported June 30 with an increase in both crush and exports to leave expected Sept. 1 2011 carryout at 360 mbu. World soybean numbers don't seem to have a significant impact at this point. The soybean market is expected to be a follower today, early calls are 10 - 20 lower.
If we trade higher it’ll be because of weather concerns and outside markets, not today's report. Most commodities traded and closed already over 100 day moving averages and that could stimulate more short covering by trend following funds as they’re modestly short corn and beans. If they want to push a long we’ll end up higher today.
Phil
Wednesday, July 7, 2010
Wednesday July 7th, 2010
Corn closed higher on Wednesday on fresh fund buying, and a decline in U.S. condition ratings boosted corn as did lingering support from last week's bullish USDA acreage and stocks reports. September corn closed up 10-1/4 cents at $3.78-1/4 per bushel. Funds bought an estimated 12,000 contracts. Talk China bought a cargo each of old and new-crop U.S. corn supportive. Higher crude oil also lent support.
Analyst are also expecting that the USDA is not likely to change its U.S. corn yield estimate in Friday's crop report despite a strong start to the 2010 growing season, grain analysts said on Wednesday. USDA is already forecasting the national average corn yield for this year to come in at 163.5 bushels per acre, just below the record 164.7 bpa achieved in 2009.
Chris Spurlock
Tuesday, July 6, 2010
Tuesday July 6th, 2010
Crop conditions out today with expected declines in both Corn and Soybeans. The national corn crop rating was down 2% from 73 to 71 good/excellent while soybeans lost 1% from 67-66. Interestingly both crops are rated exactly the same as last year at this time. It looks like those of us in Northern Illinois have been dealt a better hand this year. Wheat harvest has gradually made it's way up to our area but with SRW planting acres down 60% from last year and arguably down much more than that in our area it is hard to get a handle on how fast or slow acres are coming out.
Corn started the day up 6-7 cents on bullish outside markets, a new crop bean sale to China and concerns over European wheat in France and Russia but slowly traded lower throughout the day and finished down 4-5 cents. Corn weather seems to be all over the board with western corn belt generally too wet (Des Moines IA having 200% of avg precip from May 1 - July 4), Delta way too dry (Pine Bluff AR having 52% of avg precip from May -July), and Eastern Corn belt just about right (Champaign IL having 125% of avg from May-July). The absence of extreme heat in any of the long term forecasts should provide a long window for most corn acres to pollinate regardless of their moisture situation.
Soybeans were identical to corn today in that they started 10 cents higher and slowly eroded down to close down 6 cents. Soybean ratings at 66% G/E should provide support to prices as many western belt areas have had a horrible time getting beans planted and southern Delta regions are hanging on by a thread waiting for moisture.
Please continue to monitor any old crop corn in the bin as quality issues can pop up at any time.
Scott Meyer
Corn started the day up 6-7 cents on bullish outside markets, a new crop bean sale to China and concerns over European wheat in France and Russia but slowly traded lower throughout the day and finished down 4-5 cents. Corn weather seems to be all over the board with western corn belt generally too wet (Des Moines IA having 200% of avg precip from May 1 - July 4), Delta way too dry (Pine Bluff AR having 52% of avg precip from May -July), and Eastern Corn belt just about right (Champaign IL having 125% of avg from May-July). The absence of extreme heat in any of the long term forecasts should provide a long window for most corn acres to pollinate regardless of their moisture situation.
Soybeans were identical to corn today in that they started 10 cents higher and slowly eroded down to close down 6 cents. Soybean ratings at 66% G/E should provide support to prices as many western belt areas have had a horrible time getting beans planted and southern Delta regions are hanging on by a thread waiting for moisture.
Please continue to monitor any old crop corn in the bin as quality issues can pop up at any time.
Scott Meyer
Friday, July 2, 2010
Note: **All facilities will be closed on Monday, July 5, 2010 in observance of Independence Day.
*Corn Products in Chicago will be open at 5 AM Tuesday, July 6, 2010.
*Elburn Coop in Morris will be open for corn, soybeans and wheat on Tuesday, July 6, 2010.
*Elburn Coop in Ottawa will be open for corn on Tuesday, July 6, 2010.
In today’s trading, corn futures were down while soybean and wheat futures were generally higher. September corn finished down ¾ for the day and up 23 for the week. Bullishness from Wednesday’s acreage report that rallied corn prices the last two days couldn’t carry into Friday’s pre-holiday trade. August soybeans closed up 7 ½ today and up 3 ½ for the week. New crop Nov beans were up a ¼ today but, down 6 for the week. September Chicago wheat futures were 3 ¼ higher today and up 32 for the week. Wheat fundamentals are little changed but, fund buying is dictating that market. Export sales out yesterday were generally as expected but, yet disappointing. Corn sales failed to reach the million ton mark for the first time in several weeks and new sales to China were absent in this week’s report. China was an active buyer of both old and new crop soybeans. New sales of soybean oil to China were announced yesterday by the USDA’s daily reporting system. In outside markets, stocks finished a dismal week with the Dow and S&P 500 down again today. The Dow and S&P 500 indices were down every day this week. Crude oil futures were down $0.81 per barrel.
National average on highway diesel fuel prices were 0.5 cents lower in this week’s report. Crude oil prices declined today but, finished in the lower 70’s per barrel which probably won’t provide much direction for fuel prices. Crude stocks declined slightly this week while distillate and gasoline stocks were up.
Have a great weekend!
Mike Etienne
*Corn Products in Chicago will be open at 5 AM Tuesday, July 6, 2010.
*Elburn Coop in Morris will be open for corn, soybeans and wheat on Tuesday, July 6, 2010.
*Elburn Coop in Ottawa will be open for corn on Tuesday, July 6, 2010.
In today’s trading, corn futures were down while soybean and wheat futures were generally higher. September corn finished down ¾ for the day and up 23 for the week. Bullishness from Wednesday’s acreage report that rallied corn prices the last two days couldn’t carry into Friday’s pre-holiday trade. August soybeans closed up 7 ½ today and up 3 ½ for the week. New crop Nov beans were up a ¼ today but, down 6 for the week. September Chicago wheat futures were 3 ¼ higher today and up 32 for the week. Wheat fundamentals are little changed but, fund buying is dictating that market. Export sales out yesterday were generally as expected but, yet disappointing. Corn sales failed to reach the million ton mark for the first time in several weeks and new sales to China were absent in this week’s report. China was an active buyer of both old and new crop soybeans. New sales of soybean oil to China were announced yesterday by the USDA’s daily reporting system. In outside markets, stocks finished a dismal week with the Dow and S&P 500 down again today. The Dow and S&P 500 indices were down every day this week. Crude oil futures were down $0.81 per barrel.
National average on highway diesel fuel prices were 0.5 cents lower in this week’s report. Crude oil prices declined today but, finished in the lower 70’s per barrel which probably won’t provide much direction for fuel prices. Crude stocks declined slightly this week while distillate and gasoline stocks were up.
Have a great weekend!
Mike Etienne
Wednesday, June 30, 2010
Wednesday June 30, 2010
Factoid of the day: In 1778 Gen. George Washington marked July 4 with a double ration or rum for his soldiers and an artillery salute.
Good afternoon bloggers! Today was a great day for the market. Immediately after opening corn shot up to +30 cents and floated around that most of the day. Nearby corn closed +29 cents at $3.63. Fall corn closed +29 cents at $3.74. Though corn was able to jump 30 cents and hold it, soybeans were unable to hold on to its early bounce into positive ground. Nearby beans hit $9.54 early in the day, but closed down half a penny at $9.31. Fall beans didn't perform any better and closed at $9.02 down -7 cents. Nearby wheat was up +23 cents and closed at $4.80.
Today's USDA report took everyone by surprise. I think the only people that tell you otherwise are telling the yarn of a century. The bullish report today was exactly what we needed to see after a 7 straight negative trading sessions and after hitting an 8-month low. The knee jerk reaction was very friendly and showed that the market desperately needed corn. Soybean stocks(571mil. bu.) were 21 million bushels lower than last report (592mil. bu.)and is the smallest since 2004. Though soybeans stocks were down, soybean acreage was up 600K acres. This could explain why new crop beans were down for a good portion of the day, but nearby beans slowly bled the cents it gained early.
Corn had both bullish stock and acreage numbers. Corn was down 303 million bushels since the last report and was down 1.4 million acres since the last report as well. This is one of the reasons corn was expected to open, stay, and close at +20 to 30 cents. Hopefully the upward momentum will carry over into tonight and tomorrow for corn and the other commodities. It would be nice to see beans perform well tomorrow, but only time will tell.
I hope you all have a fun and safe Fourth of July weekend!
Don't tread on me,
Nathaniel Dubravec
Good afternoon bloggers! Today was a great day for the market. Immediately after opening corn shot up to +30 cents and floated around that most of the day. Nearby corn closed +29 cents at $3.63. Fall corn closed +29 cents at $3.74. Though corn was able to jump 30 cents and hold it, soybeans were unable to hold on to its early bounce into positive ground. Nearby beans hit $9.54 early in the day, but closed down half a penny at $9.31. Fall beans didn't perform any better and closed at $9.02 down -7 cents. Nearby wheat was up +23 cents and closed at $4.80.
Today's USDA report took everyone by surprise. I think the only people that tell you otherwise are telling the yarn of a century. The bullish report today was exactly what we needed to see after a 7 straight negative trading sessions and after hitting an 8-month low. The knee jerk reaction was very friendly and showed that the market desperately needed corn. Soybean stocks(571mil. bu.) were 21 million bushels lower than last report (592mil. bu.)and is the smallest since 2004. Though soybeans stocks were down, soybean acreage was up 600K acres. This could explain why new crop beans were down for a good portion of the day, but nearby beans slowly bled the cents it gained early.
Corn had both bullish stock and acreage numbers. Corn was down 303 million bushels since the last report and was down 1.4 million acres since the last report as well. This is one of the reasons corn was expected to open, stay, and close at +20 to 30 cents. Hopefully the upward momentum will carry over into tonight and tomorrow for corn and the other commodities. It would be nice to see beans perform well tomorrow, but only time will tell.
I hope you all have a fun and safe Fourth of July weekend!
Don't tread on me,
Nathaniel Dubravec
Wednesday June 30, 2010
Good morning! The USDA report is bullish and looking good. Corn acreage is amazingly lower than what was originally expected. Corn acres were expected to be around 89.3 million acres. USDA reported the acres at 87.9 million acres. Though corn acres were down, bean acres were over 500K higher than expected. Corn acres were down and bean acres were up.
Corn and bean stocks were very bullish. Reports show that we have less corn and beans than expected. Corn stocks were expected to be at 4.6 billion bushels. USDA report has that pegged at 4.3 billion bushels. Beans were expected to be at 592 million bushels. USDA report has that pegged at 571 million bushels. Very bullish. Both corn and beans are called higher this morning.
ACRES
USDA Wednesday Expected
Corn 87.872 Million 89.302
Beans 78.868 78.292
US STOCKS
USDA Wednesday Expected
Corn 4.310 Billion 4.613
Beans 0.571 0.592
Wheat 0.973 0.938
Today's numbers definitely took everyone by surprise. It's going to be very interesting how the market responds to these bullish figures. Have a great day!
Nathaniel Dubravec
Corn and bean stocks were very bullish. Reports show that we have less corn and beans than expected. Corn stocks were expected to be at 4.6 billion bushels. USDA report has that pegged at 4.3 billion bushels. Beans were expected to be at 592 million bushels. USDA report has that pegged at 571 million bushels. Very bullish. Both corn and beans are called higher this morning.
ACRES
USDA Wednesday Expected
Corn 87.872 Million 89.302
Beans 78.868 78.292
US STOCKS
USDA Wednesday Expected
Corn 4.310 Billion 4.613
Beans 0.571 0.592
Wheat 0.973 0.938
Today's numbers definitely took everyone by surprise. It's going to be very interesting how the market responds to these bullish figures. Have a great day!
Nathaniel Dubravec
Tuesday, June 29, 2010
Tuesday June 29, 2010
Good afternoon friends! Today the name of the game was a stronger US dollar and weak outside markets. This proved to be an uphill battle for commodities. Corn, beans, and wheat all posted loses in anticipation for Wednesday's USDA report. Corn closed -7 to -9 today. Fall corn finished the day at $3.44. Beans closed -6 to -9 as well. Fall beans are at $9.12. Beans gave an honest effort around mid-day today, but eventually any upward momentum eventually dissipated. 'Turnaround Tuesday' did not hold up to its expectations. Hopefully we can get a 'Worthwhile Wednesday' following the report and regain some of what was lost today.
Fresh news before the market opened this morning was that China purchased 230K tons of beans for 2010/11. China's quarantine authority has allowed use for the first cargo of USA GMO corn in 4 years for feed production. Cargill also sold 55K tons of corn to South Korea. Weather forecasts continue to look great overall for the Corn Belt. This has allowed for a sub-par weather premium and a few cents to erode from the market. Crop conditions are still looking good overall for Illinois even with the amount of rain we have been getting. Some producers are dealing with water and some wind damage from last week's storms that raced across most of Illinois.
Expectations for tomorrow's USDA report have this years corn plantings at 89.2 million acres. This figure is half a million acres great from the March USDA Planting Intentions Report (PIR). Bean plantings are estimated to be around 78.1 million acres. That is nearly 100K acres more since the March USDA PIR.
The Gulf is bidding firmer today for June and July corn to try and shake some bushels loose. Producer movement and sell off has been slow because of the market deteriorating the past week. The Illinois River water levels have dropped a few feet since last week and has not halted loading this week. It appears that the next few days of dry sunny weather will only encourage water levels to drop even further to a somewhat normal level.
Stay classy Illinois,
Nathaniel Dubravec
Fresh news before the market opened this morning was that China purchased 230K tons of beans for 2010/11. China's quarantine authority has allowed use for the first cargo of USA GMO corn in 4 years for feed production. Cargill also sold 55K tons of corn to South Korea. Weather forecasts continue to look great overall for the Corn Belt. This has allowed for a sub-par weather premium and a few cents to erode from the market. Crop conditions are still looking good overall for Illinois even with the amount of rain we have been getting. Some producers are dealing with water and some wind damage from last week's storms that raced across most of Illinois.
Expectations for tomorrow's USDA report have this years corn plantings at 89.2 million acres. This figure is half a million acres great from the March USDA Planting Intentions Report (PIR). Bean plantings are estimated to be around 78.1 million acres. That is nearly 100K acres more since the March USDA PIR.
The Gulf is bidding firmer today for June and July corn to try and shake some bushels loose. Producer movement and sell off has been slow because of the market deteriorating the past week. The Illinois River water levels have dropped a few feet since last week and has not halted loading this week. It appears that the next few days of dry sunny weather will only encourage water levels to drop even further to a somewhat normal level.
Stay classy Illinois,
Nathaniel Dubravec
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