Good afternoon friends! Today the name of the game was a stronger US dollar and weak outside markets. This proved to be an uphill battle for commodities. Corn, beans, and wheat all posted loses in anticipation for Wednesday's USDA report. Corn closed -7 to -9 today. Fall corn finished the day at $3.44. Beans closed -6 to -9 as well. Fall beans are at $9.12. Beans gave an honest effort around mid-day today, but eventually any upward momentum eventually dissipated. 'Turnaround Tuesday' did not hold up to its expectations. Hopefully we can get a 'Worthwhile Wednesday' following the report and regain some of what was lost today.
Fresh news before the market opened this morning was that China purchased 230K tons of beans for 2010/11. China's quarantine authority has allowed use for the first cargo of USA GMO corn in 4 years for feed production. Cargill also sold 55K tons of corn to South Korea. Weather forecasts continue to look great overall for the Corn Belt. This has allowed for a sub-par weather premium and a few cents to erode from the market. Crop conditions are still looking good overall for Illinois even with the amount of rain we have been getting. Some producers are dealing with water and some wind damage from last week's storms that raced across most of Illinois.
Expectations for tomorrow's USDA report have this years corn plantings at 89.2 million acres. This figure is half a million acres great from the March USDA Planting Intentions Report (PIR). Bean plantings are estimated to be around 78.1 million acres. That is nearly 100K acres more since the March USDA PIR.
The Gulf is bidding firmer today for June and July corn to try and shake some bushels loose. Producer movement and sell off has been slow because of the market deteriorating the past week. The Illinois River water levels have dropped a few feet since last week and has not halted loading this week. It appears that the next few days of dry sunny weather will only encourage water levels to drop even further to a somewhat normal level.
Stay classy Illinois,
Nathaniel Dubravec
Tuesday, June 29, 2010
Monday, June 28, 2010
Monday June 28th, 2010
Corn futures fell for the sixth straight day Monday, ending at its lowest price since October as favorable weather forecasts fuel talk of a record crop. Nearby July corn ended down 6 3/4 cents to $3.33 3/4 bushel. The market broke below the previous bear-market low of $3.35, maintaining the bearish technical momentum that has driven the market in its current slump. The key bearish factor, were weather forecasts calling for dry weather across the U.S. corn belt this week. That is exactly what farmers need at the end of a June that dumped excessive rains in many areas. Along with the dry weather, moderate temperatures are expected, which eases any concern traders might have about a heat wave stressing the crop during its pollination period, which typically kicks into gear in July. Pollination is a crucial period during the crop's reproductive cycle that establishes its yield potential.
After a fast start to the growing season, more traders are now talking about yields exceeding last year's record of 164.7 bushels per acre. The U.S.D.A. recently projected a national yield of 163.5 bushels per acre. The current perception in Chicago is that all is well, and that a 170-bushel crop is all but in the bin.
Friday, June 25, 2010
Note: Corn Products in Chicago will be open at 5 AM MONDAY June 28, 2010.
Elburn Coop in Morris will be open for corn and soybeans on Monday, June 28, 2010.
Elburn Coop in Ottawa will be open for corn on Monday, June 28, 2010.
Export sales for corn were again strong this week surpassing 1 million metric tons for the 3rd week in a row. Soybeans were as expected. Quarterly Hogs and Pigs Report today showed a 4% decrease in inventory compared to last year at this time. Lower than expected. Some have said this supports the theory that USDA’s feed use number for corn may have to be adjusted down. Corn and wheat were pressured today on a lack of threatening weather on the horizon. Ironically beans were supported by excessively wet conditions in parts of the Midwest and dry conditions in the south. 5 million acres of soybeans are estimated to still be unplanted. Rumors of old crop soybean sales to China were also supportive.
In today’s trading, corn and wheat futures were down while soybean futures traded slightly higher. July corn finished a lackluster week down 4 ¼ today and down 20 ½ for the week. July soybeans closed up 1 ½ today but, down 4 for the week. July Chicago wheat futures were 6 ¾ lower on the day to finish the week down 5 1/2 . Outside markets for equities and crude oil were slightly higher today. Crude oil was up $2 per barrel earlier but, leveled off at the end.
National average on highway diesel fuel prices rose 3.3 cents in this week’s report ending a 5 week string of lower results. Crude oil prices jumped today and have been staying in the mid to upper 70’s in recent weeks which could cause fuel prices to inch up. Crude and distillate stocks rose slightly this week while gasoline stocks fell slightly similar to last week.
Have a great weekend!
Mike Etienne
Elburn Coop in Morris will be open for corn and soybeans on Monday, June 28, 2010.
Elburn Coop in Ottawa will be open for corn on Monday, June 28, 2010.
Export sales for corn were again strong this week surpassing 1 million metric tons for the 3rd week in a row. Soybeans were as expected. Quarterly Hogs and Pigs Report today showed a 4% decrease in inventory compared to last year at this time. Lower than expected. Some have said this supports the theory that USDA’s feed use number for corn may have to be adjusted down. Corn and wheat were pressured today on a lack of threatening weather on the horizon. Ironically beans were supported by excessively wet conditions in parts of the Midwest and dry conditions in the south. 5 million acres of soybeans are estimated to still be unplanted. Rumors of old crop soybean sales to China were also supportive.
In today’s trading, corn and wheat futures were down while soybean futures traded slightly higher. July corn finished a lackluster week down 4 ¼ today and down 20 ½ for the week. July soybeans closed up 1 ½ today but, down 4 for the week. July Chicago wheat futures were 6 ¾ lower on the day to finish the week down 5 1/2 . Outside markets for equities and crude oil were slightly higher today. Crude oil was up $2 per barrel earlier but, leveled off at the end.
National average on highway diesel fuel prices rose 3.3 cents in this week’s report ending a 5 week string of lower results. Crude oil prices jumped today and have been staying in the mid to upper 70’s in recent weeks which could cause fuel prices to inch up. Crude and distillate stocks rose slightly this week while gasoline stocks fell slightly similar to last week.
Have a great weekend!
Mike Etienne
Wednesday, June 23, 2010
Good afternoon bloggers! Today corn and soybeans were on the defensive and were in the red all day. Soybeans closed -7 to -12 cents today and corn closed -5 to -6 cents. Nearby corn closed at $3.46 and fall corn finished at $3.65. Nearby soybeans finished at $9.58 and fall soybeans closed at $9.23.
Corn continued its slide today as weather and anticipation of a bumper crop. Soybeans didn't perform any better today, but wheat was able to post a gentleman's gain of +1 cent. Canadian weather concerns appear to be the contributing reason for US soft red winter wheat/ Canadian wheat to close in the green. Wheat continues to be the focus in the Canadian commodity realm.
Reports of soybean (and corn) futures posting losses are due to an overall favorable Midwestern weather outlook. I guess 'overall' is the key word in those reports. My understanding is that producers have received too much rain. This rain caused some worries today with river traffic on certain stretches of the Mississippi River. High water halted some traffic, but is not expected to pose much of an issue. The Mississippi River is crucial for the movement of grain. 55-65% of all US corn, soybeans, and wheat exports are shipped out of the Gulf of Mexico.
Corn condition is down 3% from last week. Soybean condition is down 4% from last week. Well over the 5 year average (63%) at 69%.
Stay classy Illinois,
Nathaniel Dubravec
Corn continued its slide today as weather and anticipation of a bumper crop. Soybeans didn't perform any better today, but wheat was able to post a gentleman's gain of +1 cent. Canadian weather concerns appear to be the contributing reason for US soft red winter wheat/ Canadian wheat to close in the green. Wheat continues to be the focus in the Canadian commodity realm.
Reports of soybean (and corn) futures posting losses are due to an overall favorable Midwestern weather outlook. I guess 'overall' is the key word in those reports. My understanding is that producers have received too much rain. This rain caused some worries today with river traffic on certain stretches of the Mississippi River. High water halted some traffic, but is not expected to pose much of an issue. The Mississippi River is crucial for the movement of grain. 55-65% of all US corn, soybeans, and wheat exports are shipped out of the Gulf of Mexico.
Corn condition is down 3% from last week. Soybean condition is down 4% from last week. Well over the 5 year average (63%) at 69%.
Stay classy Illinois,
Nathaniel Dubravec
Tuesday, June 22, 2010
Tuesday June 22, 2010
Turn-around-Tuesday failed to materialize today. The corn Market finished down 3.5 cents as an improved drier and cooler extended weather forecast looks ideal for the end of June and beginning of July for a crop that currently has lots of moisture and above normal GDU's. I have been hearing many producers that are targeting harvest to occur a full month ahead of last year,with some hinting at corn coming out in September. Monday afternoon's crop condition report showed corn G/E down 2 pts as Illinois lost 3, Iowa 1, Nebraska 3 due to extremely wet conditions. It looks like Nebraska, Iowa, Illinois, and Indiana will all break records for June precipitation at month's end. The first boat bought in 4 years has been approved by China government agencies and the unloading process started today!
Soybeans, old crop held it's own today and finished up 2 cents with new crop down 3. Soybean ratings took a big hit last week as nationwide we lost 4 points of G/E fields with Illinois dn 6, Iowa dn 6, North Dakota dn 5, and Minnesota dn 4 due to very wet weather. It should also be noted that 7% of soybeans still need to be planted.
Corn basis continues to move in opposite of futures with declines in the last 2 days on the CBOT leading to tighter corn basis. Soybean basis is all over the board with processors paying big premiums over the river markets.
Scott Meyer
Soybeans, old crop held it's own today and finished up 2 cents with new crop down 3. Soybean ratings took a big hit last week as nationwide we lost 4 points of G/E fields with Illinois dn 6, Iowa dn 6, North Dakota dn 5, and Minnesota dn 4 due to very wet weather. It should also be noted that 7% of soybeans still need to be planted.
Corn basis continues to move in opposite of futures with declines in the last 2 days on the CBOT leading to tighter corn basis. Soybean basis is all over the board with processors paying big premiums over the river markets.
Scott Meyer
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