April 9, 2009

USDA Supply & Demand figures were released today showing corn carryout at 1.7 billion bushels and soybeans at 165 million bushels. The bullish USDA Supply and Demand report didn't produce the desired end result for market bulls. The corn market had a disappointing day in market bulls' eyes as it stayed in negative territory for a majority of the session. USDA lowered U.S. ending stocks to 1.7 billion bushels on increased feed use. Soybeans had the start to a higher open only to pull back going into the close.

Wednesday April 8, 2009

Grains closed mostly quiet today in Chicago. May Corn closed up 3/4 at 3.97 and December Corn closed up 1/4 at 4.27 3/4, with the nearby May soybeans, the leader closing up 16 1/2 at 10.06 and November closing up 7 1/2 at 9.16.

In news today, China securing 3-4 more cargoes of United States Soybeans as logistical problems plague South American ports. Other than that item of note not much to for the traders to work on except spread plays between old and new crop soybeans as technicals and fundamentals suggests a $1.50 premium for July over November Soybeans.

Nearby basis levels on corn are approaching attractive levels and are generating selling interest in the river markets.

USDA Supply and Demand 7:30a CST Thursday estimates as follows:
Corn Carryout at 1.731 billion bushels
Soybeans Carryout at .169 billion bushels
USDA Export Sales 7:30a CST Thursday estimates as follows:
Corn 35 - 39 mbu
Soybeans 28 - 31 mbu

Jeff Neisler

Tuesday April 7th, 2009

Weather is becoming an important topic for North American crops. Temperatures plunged into the low 20's throughout most of Kansas, N & S Dakota, and much of the Hard Red Wheat growing areas. Like our area though the snow cover did not last long as temperatures quickly recovered. Wheat started the day out up 10-15 cents but closed poorly, down 17 cents as morning fears of crop loss gave way to better temperatures. Corn gave back all of it's Thursday, Friday, and Monday gains today as the old adage "It goes down a lot quicker than it goes up" reared it's ugly head. USDA Supply and Demand report out Thursday with trade guessing up to 50 million bu of corn could be added to carryout due to less animal feeding and 10-20 mbu taken off the soybean carryout due to ever present export market.

There is no official weekly progress report out on corn yet but those will be watched every Monday when they come out and are expected to be behind normal, I did however see a press release today for John Deere's 48 row 30 inch planter that spreads 120 feet and can plant 90-100 acres of corn an hour under good conditions, so worry over a slow planting start could be mitigated quickly. DOW dn 186 pts and Crude dn $2.00 didn't lend any support to grains today.

Scott Meyer

April 6, 2009

Corn saw a dismal close up only a penny and soy slipped Monday amid weakness in crude oil and equities coupled with a stronger dollar. Equities began lower right out of the gate on renewed fears about the banking sector. Hedge pressure coupled with speculative profit-taking pushed prices lower after a choppy two-side start. Forecast call for wet and cold conditions through this week, with precipitations ranging up to 2 inches in Illinois and Indiana. Wet conditions continue to keep field work at a minimum through most of the corn belt. Funds long about 101,000 contracts of corn futures. Farm state senators introducing legislation for a $5 billion ethanol pipeline. Current acreage and trend yield ideas would find US corn stocks declining moderately next year. Argentina estimating soy crop production there at 39.4 mmt vs USDA last estimate at 43 mmt.

~Chris Spurlock

Fricay April 3,2009

When the week started the bulls in the market were hiding in the corner while the bears were considered to be in the drivers because all the analysts were guessing that a huge acreage shift was going to happen in soybeans. Then comes Tueday morning
and the USDA estimated acres on soybeans were well below the average estimate. The noncommercial traders caame into the soybean market as strong buyers. Along with the noncommercials the commercial grain buyers also stepped up to the plate and bought large amounts of grain. Considering all the factors with the bullishness of the traders, the inverted future spreads , the trend being up and the technical bullish signals it seems as though the grains have a potential to extend the seasonal rally. The one thing that we need to start watching closer is the weather to see if we will get planting delays or not. With the week at its close I can definitely say I enjoyed this week better than last.

Chuck Peterson