With the blizzard in Washington D.C. over the weekend, harvest progress as of Sunday was delayed until today, below is a chart with estimates by the USDA of what acres are left in the field:
Colorado 19,000
Illinois 590,000
Indiana 109,000
Iowa 267,000
Kansas 77,000
Michigan 119,000
Nebraska 623,000
North Dakota 560,000
Ohio 31,000
Pennsylvania 62,000
South Dakota 552,000
Wisconsin 348,000
Total Acres 3,912,000 or 621,000,000 bushels!
Grain markets are being played around by technical traders as volume remains very light with moving averages being looked at to either find support or provide further fuel to selling opportunities. South America weather continues to be great which is pressuring soybeans as of late. I would like to wish everyone out there a Very Merry Christmas!
Scott Meyer
Tuesday, December 22, 2009
Monday, December 21, 2009
Monday, December 21, 2009
The season of low volume is upon us with two holiday shortened weeks to end the year. The corn market seemed to have some pretty good support for a while today with commodity fund orders pushing the market up $.07 at one time today. Once the round of buying was done however the market slowly gave up the gains before closing up $.02 for the day. The snowstorm that impacted the East coast closed all government offices today so the export inspections report and the crop progress reports have been delayed until Tuesday.
The soybean market spent most of the day weaker as weather in South America appears ideal and there are concerns that the a key Bio-diesel $1.00 per gallon tax credit will expire December 31 without renewal. Needless to say the credit in some form is needed for that particular industry to compete. Most traders expect it to either be extended or renewed after the first of the year with retroactive credits but there is concern nonetheless. The recent acres estimates by Informa for next year bean production have been a negative influence on beans in the past several days as it indicates a growth in acres that coupled with good growing conditions in South America could indicate that equilibrium prices for soybeans could start with a 9 instead of a 10.... There seems to be macro-economic influences that continue to support soybeans however so the ability to predict price direction from here continues to be difficult at best.
Phil Farrell
The soybean market spent most of the day weaker as weather in South America appears ideal and there are concerns that the a key Bio-diesel $1.00 per gallon tax credit will expire December 31 without renewal. Needless to say the credit in some form is needed for that particular industry to compete. Most traders expect it to either be extended or renewed after the first of the year with retroactive credits but there is concern nonetheless. The recent acres estimates by Informa for next year bean production have been a negative influence on beans in the past several days as it indicates a growth in acres that coupled with good growing conditions in South America could indicate that equilibrium prices for soybeans could start with a 9 instead of a 10.... There seems to be macro-economic influences that continue to support soybeans however so the ability to predict price direction from here continues to be difficult at best.
Phil Farrell
Thursday, December 17, 2009
Thursday December 17th, 2009
Good evening blog readers. The energy market closed relatively unchanged today, but has seen a bit of change since yesterdays DOE report; 2.5% up from Tuesdays close. The story has been the dollar and with its recent streght it has put a hold on what was a very bullish energy market. The bulls came out on Wednesday after the DOE reported draws of 3.7 million bpd on crude. Diesel had draws of 2.9 million bpd and was the main reason for a single day jump of .06 cents. Four week demand is still down about 6.5% on diesel and up about a 1% on gas. Refinery utilization is up about a 1% to hit right at 80% total. We are at an interesting intersection now, does crude still follow the dollar or will we get seperation? After todays trade it appears the dollar is still king, but time will tell. Experts still call for down side in crude with a key nubmer being $67.50, today it closed at $72.65. Look for some profit taking tomorrow as the week closes.
Thanks for reading.
Zach
Thanks for reading.
Zach
Monday, December 14, 2009
Monday December 14th, 2009
USDA released their weekly crop progress tonight, pegging US corn harvest at 92% complete vs. last week harvest of 88%. Traders were expecting the harvest to be between 90 to 94% complete. Current estimates show northern Illinois at 87% completed, with western Illinois being furthest behind at 78% complete. Grain prices rose on the Chicago Board of Trade after a bullish research note from Deutsche Bank said agriculture futures are poised to rise sharply in the coming months.
Investors waded back into most other commodities as the dollar weakened, making them less expensive for foreign buyers. A nine-month rally in commodities came to a halt this month as investors book some profits and question how long the dollar will remain weak. The Federal Reserve has kept interest rates near zero this year, weakening the dollar and making assets like stocks and commodities more attractive to investors. As the economy shows signs of strength, investors are worried that the Federal Reserve may raise interest rates sooner than expected and potentially upend the rally in commodities.
The Fed meets this week for its final policy meeting of the year. The central bank is widely expected to leave rates unchanged, but investors are anxious for any more insight on the timing of a future rate hike.
~Chris Spurlock
Investors waded back into most other commodities as the dollar weakened, making them less expensive for foreign buyers. A nine-month rally in commodities came to a halt this month as investors book some profits and question how long the dollar will remain weak. The Federal Reserve has kept interest rates near zero this year, weakening the dollar and making assets like stocks and commodities more attractive to investors. As the economy shows signs of strength, investors are worried that the Federal Reserve may raise interest rates sooner than expected and potentially upend the rally in commodities.
The Fed meets this week for its final policy meeting of the year. The central bank is widely expected to leave rates unchanged, but investors are anxious for any more insight on the timing of a future rate hike.
~Chris Spurlock
Thursday, December 10, 2009
Thursday, December 10th, 2009
Its has been a week since we last discussed Energy and it hasn't been pretty for those looking to make a buck on crude. Today recorded the 7th straight day of losses. While today's losses where mild at only .13 cents, the past week has cost the crude market about six dollars. This weeks DOE report showed large draws on crude at 3.8 million bpd, but sizable builds in gas of 2.2 million and 1.6 million on heating oil, which held the bulls at bay. The market has taken a dip and when that happens it tends to create a crossroads of such. The 100 day moving average on crude is about to cross the seven day moving average, which doesn't mean a hill of beans to end users like us, but to the technical investment folks it could mean one of two things:
1. Buy and create an end of year run back up to the $80 mark or 2. Sell, take profits and hold out for $60 to get back in. Time will tell which direction we head, but watch for the dollar to be the catalyst which sparks the move. It was relatively unchanged today, but a bounce could make option 2 look very tempting. As I mentioned last week it appears the market is going to make a move over the next month, so far it is still in its $10 range of 70-80 but it has given away all it cushion.
Product
Diesel
Over all demand is still down about 8% from this time last year and nothing seems to be changing anytime soon. The nationwide cold snap will draw on gallons, but over the road hauling and manufacturing are still down.
Gasoline
Over all demand is up 1.2% from last year over a four week average. This weeks DOE report showed builds of 2.2 million bpd on gas, helping confirm the past weeks dip in price. Refinery runs are up about 1.4%, so they are making more product as the year comes to a close, something about drawdowns on crude for tax purposes. It is safe to say this weeks losses of a dime provide a good buying opportunity, not say there still isn't downside potential.
Stay warm
Zach Winter
1. Buy and create an end of year run back up to the $80 mark or 2. Sell, take profits and hold out for $60 to get back in. Time will tell which direction we head, but watch for the dollar to be the catalyst which sparks the move. It was relatively unchanged today, but a bounce could make option 2 look very tempting. As I mentioned last week it appears the market is going to make a move over the next month, so far it is still in its $10 range of 70-80 but it has given away all it cushion.
Product
Diesel
Over all demand is still down about 8% from this time last year and nothing seems to be changing anytime soon. The nationwide cold snap will draw on gallons, but over the road hauling and manufacturing are still down.
Gasoline
Over all demand is up 1.2% from last year over a four week average. This weeks DOE report showed builds of 2.2 million bpd on gas, helping confirm the past weeks dip in price. Refinery runs are up about 1.4%, so they are making more product as the year comes to a close, something about drawdowns on crude for tax purposes. It is safe to say this weeks losses of a dime provide a good buying opportunity, not say there still isn't downside potential.
Stay warm
Zach Winter
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