Tuesday August 18th, 2009

Crop conditions out yesterday afternoon showed corn at 68% G/E only 1% better than last year with the current USDA yield guess at 159.5 bu which is 6 bu better than last year or a percentage increase of 4%, something doesn't make sense to me. South Dakota lost 6% with Indiana down %5 due to dryness. Illinois and Iowa were also down 1% vs last week's report. Pro Farmer is doing it's annual crop tour with better crops so far reported in Ohio with corn up 30 bu/ac and soybeans also up 10-15%. South Dakota corn looks similar to last year and that is figuring an average frost which this year will have a big impact due to the maturity level.

Soybean weekly crop condition rated at 66% G/E vs 63% last year. Soybean crop maturity like the corn is also being noted by the Pro Farmer Tour as being well behind last year as far as setting pods. The USDA crop ratings are 1.3% better than last year but the yield estimate is 5% better than last year, again things don't add up one way or another. Old crop soybean basis is all over the board and new crop soybean basis is strengthening to above normal numbers do to the lack of new crop cash sales and strong export demand for Oct, Nov, Dec. Weather looks friendly to crop potential as scattered rains are forecast along with normal temperatures.

Scott Meyer