Grain markets opened lower today and remained so for the duration of the day, ending down hardest in wheat. The culprits for today’s losses were a rather strong dollar, weak crude oil, and a shift in attitude about the warmer weather set to move into the Midwest by the weekend.
Corn was weighed down today by benign weather, bearish outside markets, and the results of Informa’s survey still on trader’s minds. Many private forecasters are looking for beneficial rains into next week to finish off what is already seen to be a near record large US corn crop. Prior to the open many traders were expecting that a strong corn export sales report would support values not to be no bounce was seen with selling pressure increasing throughout the day. The export sales report showed 16.6 million bushels of old crop corn sold bringing unshipped sales to 278 million which is 25% above a year ago. This would indicate that export shipments from the U.S. should continue steady right into new crop. This friendly influence hasn't been able to offset the negative influence of perceived weather forecasts and rapidly deteriorating conditions in the livestock sector.
A stronger dollar led to profit-taking in beans today, with strong exports being the only bullish news of mention. Today’s export numbers came in at 494 thousand ton of old crop, and 2.4 mil tons of new crop. Estimates were in the 2.1-2.35 mil tons range. The concerns about hot weather moving into the Midwest and settling are lessening, as chances for rain remain strong, and the most in the trade seem to feel that the crop looks poised for record yields.
Phil Farrell
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