Wednesday March 3, 2010

The AG market spent the day on positive ground. A break in the US greenback, crude oil gains, and strong outside markets had the AG market looking good today. Nearby corn was +5 cents on the day and finished at $3.86. Soybeans also performed well for most of the day and finished unchanged at $9.63. Wheat saw double digit positive gains and closed at $5.16. CZ0 closed at $4.13 and CH1 closed at $4.23. SX0 closed +3.5 cents at $9.42.

February corn insurance is at $3.99 and beans are at $9.23

Corn exports have picked up at 35-45mbu. per week. This is the second highest outstanding sales in the last 10 years. Possible underlying factors to why corn performed well today may be attributed to concerns about the upcoming planting season. The market seems to maintaining some risk premium due to snow pack and possible planting delays this spring. Some see melting snow and the potential for rain as supportive. Others that disagree think that the quicker the snow melts and ground dries the better. Some farmers were unable to complete much fieldwork last fall and need to get that done before planting.

Soybean gains appeared to 'backpedal' as the AG market neared closing. Increased global supplies and an absence of fresh fundamental news may be to blame. Lower soymeal and a record South American soybean harvest served to dampen bullish thoughts of soybean gains.

The Illinois River corn basis firmed today. I know quality issues have not only been a concern for farmers, but also for elevators across Illinois and the country. Nearby corn is at -.19 cents under CK. If you are able to hold on until April you can gain 6.5 cents. There is new talk about ethanol increases in 2010. US AG Secretary is 'optimistic' about higher blends following testing that has been done since a few months ago. We will see what happens within the near future. The US will produce just over 12 billion gallons in the 09/10 crop year.

And that's the way it is,
Nathaniel Dubravec