Friday, August 20, 2010



Tuesday, August 17, 2010

Tuesday, August 17, 2010

Crop conditions have clearly been deteriorating over the past 3 weeks nationwide in Corn. G/E ratings were down 2% on Monday night and thoughts of smaller crops have pushed corn prices near highs for the year on the Chicago Board of Trade. Illinois was down 1% and now sits at 63% vs 62% at this time last year. Iowa is down to 68% vs 77% last year, Nebraska 83 vs 77 ly, MN 90 vs 74 last year. Corn finished up 7 cents today with Dec 2010 futures at $4.30. Funds are estimated long 350,000 contracts of corn. The Pro Farmer crop tour is going on this week with results published at the end of the week. So far, estimates and conditions are closely reflecting the USDA crop ratings of Monday night.

Soybean ratings have leveled off this week, with the USDA projecting 66% national G/E rating vs last weeks 66% and in line with last year at 66%. Illinois is at 64 vs 60 ly, Iowa 69 vs 77 ly, MN 88 vs 67 ly, and Indiana 59 vs 60 ly. Soybean exports continue to impress, as does the new crop basis levels for Sep - Jan 2011. Bottom line, there is huge demand for our soybeans throughout the world during these 5 months!

Wheat has largely calmed down after losing nearly $2 off it's blow-off top earlier this month. The Russian wheat crop implications will take months to sort out but many believe our wheat crop along with higher futures prices will stem the shortfall very quickly, there are a lot of acres throughout the world that can grow wheat if the price is right, acres that aren't necessarily being used for much of anything right now.

Enjoy the cooler weather.

Scott Meyer

Monday, August 9, 2010

Monday August 9th, 2010

Corn ended lower in a see-saw session, as the market tracked volatile wheat prices. There was little fresh news for the corn market to digest, as weather for the crop remains mostly benign. Weather forecasts are showing less extreme heat. The market swung between gains and losses, and ended lower as the wheat market stumbled into the close. The market is currently awaiting Thursday's supply and demand report from Uncle Sam. Weekly crop progress report shows corn at 71% good to excellent, 97% silking, 52% dough, and 14% dented.

Soybeans ended mixed, with nearby contracts retreating on a combination of spillover weakness from wheat, the unwinding of old/new crop spreads and farmer selling. The weakness in the nearby contracts show farmers are taking advantage of rallies to clean out remaining old crop stocks. Deferred month futures contracts representing crops to be harvested in autumn backpedaled from early session highs, but ended higher on a steady dose of export demand from China, and ongoing concerns about crops moving through their critical growth stage. However, favorable near term Midwest crop weather managed to take some edge off prices.

Tuesday, August 3, 2010

Tuesday August 3, 2010

Good afternoon bloggers. Today corn finished down UNCH to -3 cents. Fall corn closed UNCH @ $4.04. Beans were up UNCH to +9 cents. Fall beans closed +8 cents @ $10.18. Wheat closed down -14 cents at $7.10. After last night's performance, we were unsure how the market was going to open today. Corn seemed to jump all over the board for most the day and unfortunately closed down. Beans were on positive ground for most of the day and wheat closed down. Thankfully wheat's poor performance didn't pull corn or beans down too much today.

The market appears to be driven by Black Sea area drought scares in Russia. This bullish news seemed to encourage speculators to pour more than $10 billion into corn, beans, and wheat. This is why the market has flourished in recent weeks. However fund players seem to be standing our their largest combined net long position since the first half of 2008. Fund buyers are noticing that chart patterns are looking increasingly tired. Some analysts say this is because the rally we have witness is based completely on fear, emotion, and momentum.

USDA crop report came out today and has corn pegged at 71% good/excellent condition. Beans are at 66% good/excellent condition. Weather in the Midwest seems to be good overall. There are some dry areas and wet areas, but overall producers' crop are looking good. Our Canadian brethren recently went through a harsh string of storms which brought hail and strong winds. This wiped out crops in parts of central Manitoba.

Construction in Morris is going well. The scale has been taken apart. Concrete has been ripped up around the scale and office area. Crews are working to pour more concrete on the west side of the elevator and the scale house has been gutted. Our dump shed has also been demolished and a new one will stand in it's place.

Stay classy Illinois,
Nathaniel Dubravec

Wednesday, July 28, 2010

Wednesday July 28, 2010


Hello bloggers! Today corn, beans, and wheat posted impressive gains on the day

Fall corn +14 cents @ $3.91
Fall beans +12 cents @ $9.78
Wheat +20 cents @ $6.47

Corn closed the day UP +10 to +14 cents. Corn and all commodities were up on the day due to foreign weather concerns, Chinese purchases, and technical buying. Russia, Australia, Europe, and other regions of the world are still working with a drought. Fears of declining world stocks of grain definitely helped boost the market today. Russian agricultural analysts said the drought may nearly halve grain exports by Russia to 12 million tons in the 2010/11 crop year started on July 1 from 22 million tons in 2009/10.

Not only is Russia and other countries having troubles, this is coupled with growing Chinese demand. China purchased another 120K tons of beans from the US this morning and is suspected that the USDA underestimated the amount bought from Uncle Sam. China is raising more livestock and has a rapidly growing population. Their demand for grain has drastically increased and this demand is expected to be long term. Thought these are all major reasons for the markets to be up today, analysts suspect technical buying has been the main catalyst for stronger corn and bean values today.

Stay classy Illinois,
Nathaniel Dubravec