Did you know: It was on this day in 1933 during the Great Depression that President Franklin D. Roosevelt declares a 'bank holiday'. This act closed all U.S. banks and froze all financial transactions.
Happy Friday! Corn took another hit after gains this morning and soybeans yo yoed all day only to finish unchanged. Corn finished the day down 7 cents at $3.75. Soybeans are unchanged at $9.42. The strong El Nino that we have been seeing hit it's peak in December. It's now weakening. Precipitation across the central U.S. is typically drier than usual during El Nino springs. China's Premier announced that it wanted to hit 8% GDP which caused an overnight rally in energies and metals. That spilled over into grains, but those gains could not be sustained most of the day. China also announced that they plan to plant more corn acres than beans acres which was nothing less than supportive of Uncle Sam's soybeans.
The Western Corn Belt region basis has remained steady while some bids have softened 2-4 cents at plants due to increased movement. Mostly because farmers are trying to move as much as possible before road postings are put into place. CIF corn is bidding +.35 cents (1 cent weaker than yesterday). CBOT deliveries totaled 1,760 contracts on March corn. Corn was down on a firm US dollar and lower crude prices. A lot of eyes are focused on the March 31 USDA acreage estimates. Last year U.S. total crop acreage declined to nearly 6 million acres.
Private estimates are increasing corn and soybean production for South America.
CIF soybeans are bidding 2 cents better than yesterday at +.60 cents. With corn down 7 cents today, it looks like corn was unable to capitalize on the active fund selling today. CBOT deliveries totaled 641 March soybeans. Our Chinese friends , world's largest soybean importer, will continue to import large soy volumes while looking at their own corn production to meet animal protein demands. Record amount of South American stocks likely to set the stage for lower meal and soy values long term. Though these are the rumors we've been hearing, it will be interesting to see what happens.
Look for a heat wave this weekend. Today we got into the 40's. On Saturday there is a slight possibility of hitting 50 degrees! This should definitely help melt a lot of this snow that still covers much of the Midwest. Warm temperatures on Saturday are going to be followed up my rain on Sunday. Looks like it may get a sloppy out there. Enjoy the weekend!
Don't feed the bears,
Nathaniel Dubravec
Friday, March 5, 2010
Thursday, March 4, 2010
Thrusday March 4th, 2010
The energy market has finally taken a rest. We hit a seven week high on crude yesterday, in the face of a bearish crude DOE report. Crude had builds of 4.1 million bpd, but was still able to jump with the help of a weak dollar. Today crude closed down .66 cents to land just above the $80 dollar mark at $80.21. Heating oil decided to take the day off, and fell .025 cent to close at $2.0687. Gas was down .0138, which isn't much in relationship to its two week rally. Gas has seen gains of about .15 cents in the last two weeks. It seems each day some kind of mass media is threatening $120 plus crude by mid summer and $3.50 gas. I am not sure how much faith I would put into the mass media hysteria, but if you are thinking about diesel prices, its not a bad idea to fill the tank for spring and possibly look at contracting a medium portion of your needs. Technically speaking today's close while lower, still feeds the bulls as the market was unable to settle below the $80 mark. This weeks trade has really tested the $80 mark, but just can't seem to shake it. Some key numbers to watch as we close the week are of course the $80 mark on the low side and $83.95 mark on the high side, which was the January high. If in the next couple sessions the market is unable to settle below $80 look for a quick run up to the $84 mark; Of course product will follow suite.
One thing I have noticed of late has to do with time frame, or clock management for you sports fans, the bulls really seem to be in control of the game. Bad news doesn't last long and then its off to the races for the bulls. I say this, because it has been very small windows of time to take advantage of dips, before its to late. Basically the opposite of the grain market, a very small window to take advantage of the gains. Well ... that's my armchair philosophy of the week, pay attention and take advantage of the small breaks, because it looks like fuel is getting more expensive than the rules of supply and demand say it should.
Thanks for reading,
Zach Winter
One thing I have noticed of late has to do with time frame, or clock management for you sports fans, the bulls really seem to be in control of the game. Bad news doesn't last long and then its off to the races for the bulls. I say this, because it has been very small windows of time to take advantage of dips, before its to late. Basically the opposite of the grain market, a very small window to take advantage of the gains. Well ... that's my armchair philosophy of the week, pay attention and take advantage of the small breaks, because it looks like fuel is getting more expensive than the rules of supply and demand say it should.
Thanks for reading,
Zach Winter
Wednesday, March 3, 2010
Wednesday March 3, 2010
The AG market spent the day on positive ground. A break in the US greenback, crude oil gains, and strong outside markets had the AG market looking good today. Nearby corn was +5 cents on the day and finished at $3.86. Soybeans also performed well for most of the day and finished unchanged at $9.63. Wheat saw double digit positive gains and closed at $5.16. CZ0 closed at $4.13 and CH1 closed at $4.23. SX0 closed +3.5 cents at $9.42.
February corn insurance is at $3.99 and beans are at $9.23
Corn exports have picked up at 35-45mbu. per week. This is the second highest outstanding sales in the last 10 years. Possible underlying factors to why corn performed well today may be attributed to concerns about the upcoming planting season. The market seems to maintaining some risk premium due to snow pack and possible planting delays this spring. Some see melting snow and the potential for rain as supportive. Others that disagree think that the quicker the snow melts and ground dries the better. Some farmers were unable to complete much fieldwork last fall and need to get that done before planting.
Soybean gains appeared to 'backpedal' as the AG market neared closing. Increased global supplies and an absence of fresh fundamental news may be to blame. Lower soymeal and a record South American soybean harvest served to dampen bullish thoughts of soybean gains.
The Illinois River corn basis firmed today. I know quality issues have not only been a concern for farmers, but also for elevators across Illinois and the country. Nearby corn is at -.19 cents under CK. If you are able to hold on until April you can gain 6.5 cents. There is new talk about ethanol increases in 2010. US AG Secretary is 'optimistic' about higher blends following testing that has been done since a few months ago. We will see what happens within the near future. The US will produce just over 12 billion gallons in the 09/10 crop year.
And that's the way it is,
Nathaniel Dubravec
February corn insurance is at $3.99 and beans are at $9.23
Corn exports have picked up at 35-45mbu. per week. This is the second highest outstanding sales in the last 10 years. Possible underlying factors to why corn performed well today may be attributed to concerns about the upcoming planting season. The market seems to maintaining some risk premium due to snow pack and possible planting delays this spring. Some see melting snow and the potential for rain as supportive. Others that disagree think that the quicker the snow melts and ground dries the better. Some farmers were unable to complete much fieldwork last fall and need to get that done before planting.
Soybean gains appeared to 'backpedal' as the AG market neared closing. Increased global supplies and an absence of fresh fundamental news may be to blame. Lower soymeal and a record South American soybean harvest served to dampen bullish thoughts of soybean gains.
The Illinois River corn basis firmed today. I know quality issues have not only been a concern for farmers, but also for elevators across Illinois and the country. Nearby corn is at -.19 cents under CK. If you are able to hold on until April you can gain 6.5 cents. There is new talk about ethanol increases in 2010. US AG Secretary is 'optimistic' about higher blends following testing that has been done since a few months ago. We will see what happens within the near future. The US will produce just over 12 billion gallons in the 09/10 crop year.
And that's the way it is,
Nathaniel Dubravec
Tuesday, March 2, 2010
Tuesday March 02, 2010
The overnight markets were lower after earlier gains in the evening. This morning the AG markets once again put on a mixed performance. The market ended flat after a choppy day. Nearby corn closed down at $3.70 and soybeans closed at $9.54. Futures across the boards posted modest gains and losses. CZ0 closed at $4.07 and SX0 closed at $9.38. There has been talk that South American soybean crop may have been underestimated. The USDA estimates Argentina production at 53mmt while some sources are estimating the soybean crop between 55mmt and 57mmt. Brazil estimates have remained unchanged at a range of 65-67mmt. Regardless, South American crop is looking stellar and may have a soybean crop in excess of 4.5bbu.
Corn CIF values have fallen 2% from last week. CIF is offering +.37 over CK and +.57 over SK. Our weather forecast for N. Illinois looks relatively quite for the remainder of the week. Surprisingly we are going to be seeing the temperatures climb into the 40's by Friday.
One thing that stands out is the likelihood of a substantial increase in corn acreage across the far eastern and far western Corn Belt. A wet spring is not good for gaining corn acreage, but it certainly plays into the hands of gaining bean acreage. We have also heard of reports that container volumes may decline through the summer as freight rates head to higher ground. Ethanol markets seem to be well supplied as corn basis has slipped some. Soybean basis has mostly stalled at the processor as last week's flat price rally moved soybeans into the pipeline.
Have a good week!
Nathaniel Dubravec
Corn CIF values have fallen 2% from last week. CIF is offering +.37 over CK and +.57 over SK. Our weather forecast for N. Illinois looks relatively quite for the remainder of the week. Surprisingly we are going to be seeing the temperatures climb into the 40's by Friday.
One thing that stands out is the likelihood of a substantial increase in corn acreage across the far eastern and far western Corn Belt. A wet spring is not good for gaining corn acreage, but it certainly plays into the hands of gaining bean acreage. We have also heard of reports that container volumes may decline through the summer as freight rates head to higher ground. Ethanol markets seem to be well supplied as corn basis has slipped some. Soybean basis has mostly stalled at the processor as last week's flat price rally moved soybeans into the pipeline.
Have a good week!
Nathaniel Dubravec
Monday, March 1, 2010
Monday March 1st, 2010
Corn finished the day lower amid pressure from a firmer dollar, slumping wheat and fund selling. The market was unable to extend last week's rally, which many where expecting follow through fund buying amid first of the month activities. Shortly after the market opened funds failed to show up the party and corn began heading south, ultimately closing down 7 cents. While a stronger dollar has been driving down corn prices, early talk of delayed plantings has helped to stem loses, although with planting a good month away, concern over delayed planting isn't too significant.
Chris Spurlock
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)
Posts
