Friday April 24, 2009

Corn traded higher on the open today as weather concerns are starting to factor into the daily market discussion. The market started to turn lower after the noon weather maps looked a bit drier for the eastern belt and with active planting already occurring in the western belt corn ended $.04 lower. Today seemed like a fitting end to a blah week on the CBOT with futures ending up a penny compared to last Friday. There is much discussion in the trade about the rapid planting progress being seen west of the Mississippi with some guessing that the real planting number for Iowa will be close to 50% by Sunday and Minnesota and Nebraska very close to that progress. The likelihood that USDA will show this progress in their weekly planting report Monday seems remote but it is possible to see a jump to 30 or 35 possibly. The eastern belt is lagging significantly but some planting has been reported today in various parts of Illinois. The weekend weather looks relatively light for Illinois east so lets hope that holds true.

Soybeans struggled to hold early gains but did close slightly higher with old crop up $.02 and new crop up $.10 or so. For the week beans lost $.11 in the old crop May with new crop November down $.02. There continues to be support for beans from the pace of export sales with U.S. supplies replacing a deteriorating Argentine crop. The new crop was supported today on ideas that a lot of corn is getting planted in the western corn belt, hard to believe in this area with many conversations we are having with producers indicate a willingness to switch acres to beans if soil moisture levels don't improve. Too early for that to happen at this point, corn still seems to be the crop of choice locally.

Have a good weekend,

Phil Farrell

Thursday April 23,2009

Corn had a nice rally today based solely on weather and foreign export trade, the latest weather maps are turning Illinois Iowa and Indiana into small lakes with the
2- 4 inches of rain. The case for soybeans into China has not died down much either.
Sooner or later the USDA will have to shift the carryout number on beans closer to 100 million bushels. It is going to be an impatient weekend for farmers wanting to get into the fields. Any more of a delay in planting is going to get the trade real excited.Keep your eyes focused to Sunday night futures to see the next chapter of the spring of 09.


Chuck Peterson

Wednesday April 22, 2009

Today grains in Chicago closed mixed with both May and December Corn fractionally lower. The Soybean complex closed up 8 in the May and down 7 in the November.

Corn, most active feature is new crop corn holding while November Soybeans slip on ideas of increased plantings of soybeans with current wet weather patterns. It seems that forecasts are in general agreement that we will have a few working days over the weekend and chances of rain into early next week. Hard to have much on the table for bulls to feed on. Export demand somewhat picking up, although domestic demand is still getting rationed as ethanol and feed demand both are struggling with poor margins.

Soybeans, really only thing to report is the bull spreading activity. Influenced by tightening old crop supplies and ideas of increased soybean plantings with wet weather and reduced input costs.

Jeff Neisler

April 21, 2009

Turn-around Tuesday trade today as corn gained back most of it's losses yesterday. Weather models at midday reports showed a little more moisture coming into the corn belt in the long range 8-14 day forecast but favorable conditions for the next 4-5 days should see lots of planting in areas of Iowa and Minnesota that did not receive the last round of rain. Interesting note I read on surplus moisture at the surface Iowa 14% surplus vs. Illinois 73%. We continue to get e-mails from brokerage services in Iowa talking about how well planting is going but also how dry soils are as they have missed all the rain in the last 2 weeks.

Outside markets were supportive today as stock market rebounded after a dismal day yesterday and crude ended up 60 cents after being down almost $2.00 in night trading and early this morning.

Scott Meyer

April 20, 2009

Grain prices skidded on Monday, dragged down by a sell-off in stocks and crude oil and pressured by the dollar hitting a one-month high. Losses in soybeans were limited by China's insatiable appetite for the oilseed, which kept prices near their six-month high. Poor soybean production in Argentina and political unrest between the government and farmers were also key to the strength in the soy market.

Cool and wet conditions early this week will limit fieldwork in the Midwest including corn plantings. Drier through midweek but then a return to wet weather especially in west and north. Rumors of numerous US banks being judged insolvent with ongoing stress test weighed on sentiment today and will be a factor until stress test details are more evident, a major factor weighing down equities.

CROP PROGRESS: CORN 5% PLANTED vs. 2% Last Week & 14% AVG

Chris Spurlock