Fact of the day: The 'Tully Monster' is the official state fossil. It was a marine mammal that lived 280-340 million years ago.
Hello bloggers! Today was a trying day for corn and beans. Nearby corn finished down -10 cents at $3.56. Soybeans were down -10 cents at $9.50. A stronger US dollar, great weather outlook, and weak crude oil was to blame for the fall in prices. As Scott pointed out earlier, it's ironic how China purchased 484,000 tonnes of corn from USA (the most in a decade) and the price of commodities still declined. Not only is China purchasing corn from the USA, but there is talk they will soon become the no. 1 importer of American DDG's. Other than Chinese news, there appears to be not much fresh news today.
New Orleans' corn bid is up this week at +50 cents and soybeans are bidding at +53 cents. The Illinois River appears to have crested which will allow for continued barge loading in Morris and Ottawa. As of right now, the oil slick in the Gulf of Mexico has not been affecting barge movement in/out of the USA. This weeks rains will be followed by a weekend of 70 degree days. This weekend's weather will be a sight to sore eyes for the producers that have received more rain than desirable. Looks like Grundy County area will be seeing its next rainfall Monday, but will remain dry for the next week. The Morris Terminal has seen 2.70 inches of rain this month. Our average rainfall is 3.95 inches for May.
Some international news that I found interesting is the Japanese government is ordering '...the destruction of 73,653 pigs' to prevent the spread of foot-in-mouth outbreak. Though the outbreak currently has not made any noticeable changes meat demand/consumption, it is expected to slow if Japan's culling efforts fail.
Stay classy and have a great weekend,
Nathaniel Dubravec
Friday, May 14, 2010
Thursday, May 13, 2010
Thursday May 13th, 2010
Well it's still ugly for those looking for an energy market up tic. Most of us will be happy with cheaper fuel, but many investors were looking to energy for an income opportunity and it doesn't look as though the bounce is coming anytime soon. Crude closed down another $1.25 at $74.40. The same story has once again lead to the same results, (funny how that works) dollar gains on continued worries over the state of the global economy, with commodities and equities lower. Overall crude is down $2.40 on the week, with diesel and gas both up about .02 cents; Mainly do to sizable jump Monday.
This weeks DOE report did little to increase the hopes of demand, with reports of 1.9 million bpd builds on crude and 1.4 million bpd builds on diesel. Supply levels are at all time highs, Cushing, OK reported its crude reserves are at all time highs since reporting began in 2004. The only glimmer of hope came in the way of 2.8 million bpd draw on gasoline.
I believe if the economy was showing stronger signs of global improvement, the 970,000 barrels of oil substance spuing into gulf would have an impact on the market, but no impact has been seen. BP reported today that the clean up efforts tabhas hit $450 million, with over 530 vessels participating in clean up efforts. An end may be in site, with hopes of a "top hat"oil containment system will be in place within a few days. The latest effort is focused on a slightly smaller tube being inserted into the existing pipe, funneling oil to the top of the surface, where it can be trapped and contained.
The short term outlook remains bearish with inventory high and demand low. Some news of increased air demand did surface today calling for a possible up tic in jet fuel demand. Air travel authorities are budgeting 20% fuel price jumps for the up coming travel season, that could be an indicator of future price ranges, but expect to pay about the same for fuel this weekend.
Good evening, stay dry.
Zach Winter
This weeks DOE report did little to increase the hopes of demand, with reports of 1.9 million bpd builds on crude and 1.4 million bpd builds on diesel. Supply levels are at all time highs, Cushing, OK reported its crude reserves are at all time highs since reporting began in 2004. The only glimmer of hope came in the way of 2.8 million bpd draw on gasoline.
I believe if the economy was showing stronger signs of global improvement, the 970,000 barrels of oil substance spuing into gulf would have an impact on the market, but no impact has been seen. BP reported today that the clean up efforts tabhas hit $450 million, with over 530 vessels participating in clean up efforts. An end may be in site, with hopes of a "top hat"oil containment system will be in place within a few days. The latest effort is focused on a slightly smaller tube being inserted into the existing pipe, funneling oil to the top of the surface, where it can be trapped and contained.
The short term outlook remains bearish with inventory high and demand low. Some news of increased air demand did surface today calling for a possible up tic in jet fuel demand. Air travel authorities are budgeting 20% fuel price jumps for the up coming travel season, that could be an indicator of future price ranges, but expect to pay about the same for fuel this weekend.
Good evening, stay dry.
Zach Winter
Wednesday, May 12, 2010
Wednesday May 12, 2010
Fact of the day: The official snack food of Illinois is popcorn. The Illinois General Assembly designated it as the official state snack in 2003.
Good afternoon bloggers! Last night and this morning we saw a significant rally due to China purchasing 10 cargoes of corn (6 cargoes from USA). There is speculation China's interest in our corn is because of a poor Chinese corn harvest and rising inflation. Though corn and beans rallied early, corn closed +1 cent at $3.78 and beans closed down half a penny at $9.65
Rumors from earlier this week proved to be true with China buying corn from USA. Corn sales activity for 2009/2010 were a marketing year high of 72.9mbu. This is the highest since January 2008. December 2010 corn finished the day at $3.92. Corn planting is going well and the rains which fell this week have definitely helped a lot of producers. Though the rains have helped producers around Illinois, some producers in northwest Indiana are 'waterlogged'. Producer movement has ramped up due to finished or wet fields. Some areas have fieldwork on hold and more of a focus has shifted to moving grain. Though some areas are more wet than favored, just be thankful we don't live in Wyoming/Colorado/Dakotas. Producers up there have a rare May snowstorm on their hands!
New crop beans were down on the day. Old crop beans posted unchanged to a penny gain. The mixed closing prices may be due to a lingering effect from the USDA report. The report said we may have a larger than ending stockpile of beans that analysts previously thought. USA nationwide bean emergence is just shy of 10%. Another 10.4mbu. of sales was posted for this week. Good to have a few solid weeks back to back. This is the second highest total since February (11.4mbu. sold). New Orleans bean values have decreased ~2% since last week. Bean exports have slowly declined as expected.
Stay classy Illinois,
Nathaniel Dubravec
Good afternoon bloggers! Last night and this morning we saw a significant rally due to China purchasing 10 cargoes of corn (6 cargoes from USA). There is speculation China's interest in our corn is because of a poor Chinese corn harvest and rising inflation. Though corn and beans rallied early, corn closed +1 cent at $3.78 and beans closed down half a penny at $9.65
Rumors from earlier this week proved to be true with China buying corn from USA. Corn sales activity for 2009/2010 were a marketing year high of 72.9mbu. This is the highest since January 2008. December 2010 corn finished the day at $3.92. Corn planting is going well and the rains which fell this week have definitely helped a lot of producers. Though the rains have helped producers around Illinois, some producers in northwest Indiana are 'waterlogged'. Producer movement has ramped up due to finished or wet fields. Some areas have fieldwork on hold and more of a focus has shifted to moving grain. Though some areas are more wet than favored, just be thankful we don't live in Wyoming/Colorado/Dakotas. Producers up there have a rare May snowstorm on their hands!
New crop beans were down on the day. Old crop beans posted unchanged to a penny gain. The mixed closing prices may be due to a lingering effect from the USDA report. The report said we may have a larger than ending stockpile of beans that analysts previously thought. USA nationwide bean emergence is just shy of 10%. Another 10.4mbu. of sales was posted for this week. Good to have a few solid weeks back to back. This is the second highest total since February (11.4mbu. sold). New Orleans bean values have decreased ~2% since last week. Bean exports have slowly declined as expected.
Stay classy Illinois,
Nathaniel Dubravec
Tuesday, May 11, 2010
Tuesday May 11th, 2010
CBOT Today:
Corn up 6.5 cents
Beans up 5.0 cents
Wheat up 0.5 cents
USDA Report Card day today:
Corn production for the 2009 crop was lowered 25 mbu on poor yields from N & S Dakota with national yield lowered to 164.7 vs 164.9 in April. The corn carryout for 09/10 was lowered from 1.899 bbu to 1.738 as a result of lower production, higher food, ethanol, and export usage. Using the projected 163.5 yield for next year and 88.8 million planted acres, carryout for 10/11 is projected at 1.818. Corn was 5 cents lower overnight on higher dollar and week stock and crude markets but did manage to finish up 6.5 cents for the day or 11.5 cents higher than overnight ended. More moisture forecast over the midwest for next 2 days and then more seasonable temps along with drier weather forecast for the weekend and first part of next week.
If corn had a slightly bullish tone from the USDA then soybeans had a very bearish report as carryout 09/10 was left unchanged at 190 mbu where some were looking for 170 range numbers. The real negative news is next year with projected carryout using 42.9 bu/ac yield and 78.1 million acres at 365 million bushels. The world bean supply and demand doesn't look any better with record production in South America but it never ceases to amaze how demand eventually pulls carryout numbers down from projections on soybeans. If you have any questions on USDA reports or daily comments in general, please feel free to give your local Elburn Coop office a call.
Thanks,
Scott Meyer
Corn up 6.5 cents
Beans up 5.0 cents
Wheat up 0.5 cents
USDA Report Card day today:
Corn production for the 2009 crop was lowered 25 mbu on poor yields from N & S Dakota with national yield lowered to 164.7 vs 164.9 in April. The corn carryout for 09/10 was lowered from 1.899 bbu to 1.738 as a result of lower production, higher food, ethanol, and export usage. Using the projected 163.5 yield for next year and 88.8 million planted acres, carryout for 10/11 is projected at 1.818. Corn was 5 cents lower overnight on higher dollar and week stock and crude markets but did manage to finish up 6.5 cents for the day or 11.5 cents higher than overnight ended. More moisture forecast over the midwest for next 2 days and then more seasonable temps along with drier weather forecast for the weekend and first part of next week.
If corn had a slightly bullish tone from the USDA then soybeans had a very bearish report as carryout 09/10 was left unchanged at 190 mbu where some were looking for 170 range numbers. The real negative news is next year with projected carryout using 42.9 bu/ac yield and 78.1 million acres at 365 million bushels. The world bean supply and demand doesn't look any better with record production in South America but it never ceases to amaze how demand eventually pulls carryout numbers down from projections on soybeans. If you have any questions on USDA reports or daily comments in general, please feel free to give your local Elburn Coop office a call.
Thanks,
Scott Meyer
Monday, May 10, 2010
Monday May 10th, 2010
Corn started out the session up a nickel, but wasn't able to hold on, as the dollar pulled back its heavy losses and wheat took a nose dive as the frost/freeze over the weekend failed to due much damage to the crop. Tomorrow morning the USDA will release their monthly crop production report with estimates for both old crop and new crop carry-out. Analyst are projecting old crop carry-out between 1.72 billion bushels and 2.0 billion bushels with the average guess at 1.86 billion bushels, while new crop carryout estimates range between 1.5 and 2.4 billion bushels, with the consensus at 1.9 billion bushels. The weekly crop progress report shows corn at planted 81%, the market was looking for 75% to 85%.
Soybeans were able to finish out the day slightly better then both corn and wheat closing a whopping penny higher. Estimates for carry-out tomorrow on old crop soybeans are 180 million bushels and new crop at 340 million bushels. The weekly crop progress report shows soybeans at planted 30%, the market was looking for 35%.
Weather forecast calls for cool and wet weather in much of the central U.S. grain belt, this week. Delta grain-growing areas will have generally favorable weather for planting and crop development during the next five days. Rainfall of more than 3 inches is in store for Iowa, Missouri and Illinois, with moderate amounts elsewhere in the Midwest. Freezing weekend temperatures developed in some sections of the Corn Belt.
Chris Spurlock
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