Grains in Chicago closed on a weak note today. Mostly following through on USDA report data and a good long weekend forecast had the bulls on their heels as lack of positive news was the feature. With Informa releasing yield estimates today numbers as follows:
Corn yield at 156.3 vs June USDA at 153.4
Corn production at 12.524 billion bushels vs. 12.101 last year
Soybean yield 42 bu/acre vs. June USDA at 42.6
Soybean production at 3.214 billion bushels vs. 2.959 last year
Corn today continuing on the slide although entering EXTREMELY oversold conditions. December Corn closed down 11 3/4 cents. The news keeps talking about a potential record crop. On a brighter note USDA reported export sales this past week at 45.5 million bushel.
Soybeans staying fairly well supported as November Soybeans closed down 9 1/2 cents at 10.06. The USDA announced a sale of 660,000 metric tons of new crop soybeans today. Seems to me soybeans are still the property of choice.
Happy Fourth of July,
Jeff Neisler
Thursday, July 2, 2009
Wednesday, July 1, 2009
Wednesday July, 1 2009
Grains closed higher in Chicago today led by sharply higher soybeans November soybeans closed up 34 1/2 while December Corn closed up 2 and December Wheat down 4 1/4.
Corn attempting to consolidate and caught between the the strong basis market and what looks to be a large on farm stocks and a ample new crop corn supply and demand table. Some looking at the potential of a national yield as high as 160 especially supported by the western belt. Assuming 80 million acres harvested equates to 12.800 billion bushel corn crop if..... The reality of the equation though is just how much weather premium is left? Ethanol and livestock margins improving yet, livestock is still relatively deep in the red territory. Funds have cut their long position in half in the last 30 days.
Soybeans still have the need to ration old crop. The squeeze is still on, and the delta will be unable to satisfy the transition demand like in past years. Large new crop acres needed in South America to balance supply and demand globally. Relatively the funds seem reluctant to let long soybean positions go. China demand rumor circulating again as they seem to still have interest in U.S. soybeans in the transition slots.
Jeff Neisler
Corn attempting to consolidate and caught between the the strong basis market and what looks to be a large on farm stocks and a ample new crop corn supply and demand table. Some looking at the potential of a national yield as high as 160 especially supported by the western belt. Assuming 80 million acres harvested equates to 12.800 billion bushel corn crop if..... The reality of the equation though is just how much weather premium is left? Ethanol and livestock margins improving yet, livestock is still relatively deep in the red territory. Funds have cut their long position in half in the last 30 days.
Soybeans still have the need to ration old crop. The squeeze is still on, and the delta will be unable to satisfy the transition demand like in past years. Large new crop acres needed in South America to balance supply and demand globally. Relatively the funds seem reluctant to let long soybean positions go. China demand rumor circulating again as they seem to still have interest in U.S. soybeans in the transition slots.
Jeff Neisler
Tuesday, June 30, 2009
Tuesday June 30th, 2009
The USDA June Acreage report out today showing a record 77.5 million acres of soybeans were planted through June, up 1.8 million acres from last year. Farmers also planted 87 million acres of corn, up 1 million acres from last year and the second-largest corn acreage in more than 60 years. These numbers help to explain what happened to the original 7 million acres that was seen missing from the USDA's March intention report. Nebraska and Iowa posted the biggest increase in corn acreage, up 600,000 and 500,000 acres from the March report, respectively. The market responded fiercely to this and corn was down the limit from the opening, unable to recover. Analyst has been projecting corn acreage between 82.5 million acres to 86 million acres, with predictions on soybeans between 75 to 79 million acres.
The USDA also reported a bigger supply of corn reserves on hand than many analysts expected. About 4.27 billion bushels of corn is stored on farms and grain bins, up 6 percent from last year and above the 4.18 billion bushes analysts had predicted.
Outside markets also provided little support for commodities with both gold and crude oil down sharply after a bearish consumer confidence report was released this morning. The dollar also saw a gain against the Euro and Pound. The Dow Jones closed the day down 82 points.
~Chris Spurlock
The USDA also reported a bigger supply of corn reserves on hand than many analysts expected. About 4.27 billion bushels of corn is stored on farms and grain bins, up 6 percent from last year and above the 4.18 billion bushes analysts had predicted.
Outside markets also provided little support for commodities with both gold and crude oil down sharply after a bearish consumer confidence report was released this morning. The dollar also saw a gain against the Euro and Pound. The Dow Jones closed the day down 82 points.
~Chris Spurlock
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