Friday, October 2, 2009

Note: CPC-Chicago and IRE-Rochelle will both be closed for truck corn deliveries on Monday, October 5, 2009. CPC will reopen Tuesday at 5AM. IRE will not reopen until Wednesday.

Corn and wheat futures were lower and soybeans sharply lower in today’s trading. Dec corn finished down 7 cents today but, was only ½ cent lower for the week. Corn was pressured by Informa’s crop estimate that indicated 168 bu/ac yield is still possible. Nov soybeans finished 33 cents lower today and down 41 cents for the week. Informa’s estimated bean yield of 44 bu/ac sent beans lower helped by early estimates of a potential record Brazilian soybean crop that is just being planted. Dec Chicago wheat futures finished 11 ½ cents lower.

Export sales out yesterday were higher than estimates with soybean sales continuing to be exceptionally strong. Soybeans sales recorded in September this year were higher than any September in the last 20 years. Total sales commitments for this crop year that began Sep 1 are 741 million bushels. This is a record for sales recorded by this date surpassing last year’s mark of 384 million bushels which was the previous record. China’s hefty soybean purchases thus far are the reason for the increase. China accounts for over 60% of the total commitments so far at 12.1 million tons. The 2nd best buyer is Japan at just under 1 million tons. It will be interesting to see if and for how long China’s appetite for US beans continues. If large South American crops materialize they will attract Chinese buying interest quickly.

On highway diesel fuel prices dropped a little more than a cent for the third week in a row. Ample supplies and weak demand continue to keep prices in check.

Have a great weekend!
Mike Etienne

Thursday, October 1, 2009

Thursday October 1, 2009

Good evening blog readers. Lets talk Energy. The week started slow after last weeks test of multi-month lows, but a large rebound was post yesterday after the DOE report read bullish. Well it read bullish to investors, I am still trying to figure out how builds of 2.8 million in crude for the second consecutive week is bullish. Never less, gains of $3 and some change were posted and more importantly they held today with an additional bounce of .21 cents to close above the $70 mark at $70.82. After yesterdays close the market talk was still a bit negative, thinking the gains were over done and today would be a profit taking day. The day looked to begin just as predicted, with a strong dollar, weak housing and manufacturing reports, but no losses were recorded by days end. We are still trading in the 65-75 dollar range so unless either are tested, we will most likely remain in this trend. The energy market weathered what looked like a perfect storm today, don't look for much change tomorrow.
Diesel
Diesel saw large gains this week, with nine plus cent gains yesterday. The DOE report showed builds of 300,000 bpd and over all four week demand down 9.2% from last year. While builds were not what we have seen the past few weeks it is wonder how builds can still provide a boost of almost a dime in a single day of trade. Not to mention refinery utilization is down 1% this week to 84.6% of total capacity. I really thought the market was over done yesterday, but we saw less than a half of one cent come back. You will most likely see consumer diesel prices jump about a dime at the pumps over the next couple of days.
Gasoline
Gasoline seems to be the catalyst for this weeks gains. The DOE reported a draw of 1.6 million bpd giving a boost to the entire energy market. Gas has a four week demand increase of about 5.4% from last year this time. Look for prices to increase at the pump over the weekend, with small gains of about half a cent today and ten cents of gain yesterday.

Wednesday, September 30, 2009

Wednesday, September 30, 2009

USDA September stocks report:

Corn carryout: 1.674 billion bushels, slightly below expectations of 1.695
Bean carryout:138 million bushels, well above expectations of 110 mbu.
USDA also revised 2008 soybean production upwards 8 mbu to to 2.967 bbu.

Corn opened lower on weakness in equities and the wheat markets. The market was able to turn higher on a round of late fund buying and outside influences. Traders also continue to watch as corn struggles to reach full maturity with the recent frost in the Midwest and now forecasts for rain events this and next week. There was talk of investment flows into commodities for the end of the month with corn purchases by funds estimated at 5,000 contracts or so today.


Soybeans opened lower on a revised production number from last year, resulting in an unexpected increase in ending stocks. Prices rebounded on outside influences and quarter-end positioning near the close. Commodity funds were estimated to have bought 3,000 contracts of soybeans on the day. The soy oil market lent support to the complex with gasoline futures up $.11 per gallon today! Soybeans also saw some support from expected harvest delays from widespread rain later this week...

Phil Farrell

Monday, September 28, 2009

Monday September 28t, 2009

Corn closed 5 cents higher on firm outside markets ie: crude up $1.10 and dow up 124 pts. China corn production estimates are also coming out at 149.8 million metric tons which would be down 11 mmt from the last USDA number or over 400 million bu less and the lowest production in 3 years! Cold and wet weather forecasts also limited selling as the latest crop on record tries to finish things up. Cash corn movement remains light with only scattered old crop "clean the bins out" selling occuring. Corn basis levels are firm for nearby with many producers looking to start or switch to beans for the next 2 weeks and give corn more time to dry.

Soybeans were down 6 cents today with good harvest progress reported in IA, NE, and MN. Yields continue to impress with very few reported in the 40's. Soybean basis is also firm nearby as the pipeline still can't get enough to meet the robust demand we currently have.

Read an article today that a 250 ton gate fell off on the Markland Lock on the lower OH River and is slowing down traffic as an auxiliary lock is being used but it is 3 x slower. Estimates are for the repairs to the main gate taking months to complete. With all of the updates needed all along the Ohio and Mississippi River locks and damns, it is amazing more damages like this don't show up.

Harvest Progress:

Corn
IL 2% vs 28% avg
US 6% vs 18% avg

Soybeans
IL 1% vs 21% avg
US 5% vs 18% avg

Scott Meyer