Wednesday April 21, 2010

Good afternoon bloggers! The past two days have helped the commodities get back on track. After Monday's debacle, corn and beans are close to what they were last week. Nearby corn was up another +4 cents @ $3.59. Soybeans were up +11cents at $9.95. July soybeans broke the $10 mark and finished the day at $10.06.

The corn market has been strong and stable the past few days. New Orleans' bids are strong at +47 cents. With producers planting corn in the fields and not moving much to the elevators, basis and futures has seen a rise. China appears to be buying some as well as North Africa countries. It's interesting how corn futures have been behaving as of late with planting going full bore. Japan also seems to be diversifying by moving 25% of their business from USA to S. America. Taiwan is moving 90% towards S. America. A lot of soybeans are getting exported to China. The bean (and corn) basis has been firming up this week as well. Soybeans are the highest they have been in 3 months. Both July and August beans are above $10 and hopefully will continue to creep up.

Weather is looking favorable across the entire Corn Belt. It looks as if it's going to remain dry for the next few days until a system moves in. Producers are getting have been getting a lot done with some finished or close to finishing. All of the midwest states are making great progress. Scattered thunderstorms over Argentina and Brazil are slowing down harvest. South Africa is having similar issues.

Stay classy Illinois,
Nathaniel Dubravec

Tuesday April 20th, 2010

Another day of outstanding weather and record planting progress! Corn, Soybeans and especially wheat turned up the volume on the turn-around-Tuesday dance today. Corn up 8, beans up 7, and wheat 19 higher. A little bit overdone yesterday on dragging corn down 16 and wheat down 23 along with rebounding crude oil (up 2$/barrel today) led to higher trade. Large rains are forecast over the entire corn belt starting Thursday and lasting into Monday. If rain gradually falls over those 3 days, things probably couldn't be better for the crop just planted. Lets look for this scenario and not one that has heavy downpours of rain in severe thunderstorms.

Soybeans have been the steady crop over the last 2 days, down 8 and up 7 respectively. Traders are watching record corn planting pace to see if bean acres will be lost and how planting progress will develope this week, yes beans are going in the ground nationwide.

Cattle prices have reached a 21 month high and that old high of Aug 2008 coincides with China hosting the 2008 summer Olympics and using a lot of beef! Hog prices are also way up over last year and both prices should lead to higher placements in the months to come.

Scott Meyer

Monday April 19th, 2010

Crop Progress: Corn Planted 19% vs. 5% last year and 9% on 4-year average.

Well the story of the day definitely was Goldman Sachs being charged with defrauding investors. Goldman Sachs is one of the largest commodity trading funds, and while the fraud charges relate to sub-prime mortgage securities, the news sent shock waves through the entire commodity sector. A rally in the U.S. dollar coupled with a more than $2.00 a barrel drop in crude oil futures sent negative waves filtering through grain markets from the outset. Heavy speculative selling was featured, as the market lacked the fundamental stamina to sustain previous price levels without a supportive spark to attract fresh buying.

Chris Spurlock