Wednesday July 28, 2010

MORRIS RIVER TERMINAL IS WILL BE CLOSED FOR GRAIN DELIVERIES BEGINNING AUGUST 2, 2010. REPAIRS AND IMPROVEMENTS ARE SCHEDULED TO LAST THE DURATION OF AUGUST.

Hello bloggers! Today corn, beans, and wheat posted impressive gains on the day

Fall corn +14 cents @ $3.91
Fall beans +12 cents @ $9.78
Wheat +20 cents @ $6.47

Corn closed the day UP +10 to +14 cents. Corn and all commodities were up on the day due to foreign weather concerns, Chinese purchases, and technical buying. Russia, Australia, Europe, and other regions of the world are still working with a drought. Fears of declining world stocks of grain definitely helped boost the market today. Russian agricultural analysts said the drought may nearly halve grain exports by Russia to 12 million tons in the 2010/11 crop year started on July 1 from 22 million tons in 2009/10.

Not only is Russia and other countries having troubles, this is coupled with growing Chinese demand. China purchased another 120K tons of beans from the US this morning and is suspected that the USDA underestimated the amount bought from Uncle Sam. China is raising more livestock and has a rapidly growing population. Their demand for grain has drastically increased and this demand is expected to be long term. Thought these are all major reasons for the markets to be up today, analysts suspect technical buying has been the main catalyst for stronger corn and bean values today.

Stay classy Illinois,
Nathaniel Dubravec

Tuesday, July 27th, 2010

Corn and soybeans looked to stage a classic dead-cat-bounce today with corn up 4 and beans up 6 cents in the overnight trading but couldn't hold their strength in the day session. Corn closed down 1 cent with new crop beans down 1/2 cent in a day of consolidation. Fundamentally traders are playing tug-of-war with potential record US Corn and Soybeans against devastated Russian crops and below average China crops. Corn is rated at 72% G/E and the crop index is 106 vs last year's 104.5 which resulted in a record yield. Currently this is the best rated corn crop since the big one of 2004.

Corn G/E ratings
State 2009 2010
IA 80 70
NE 78 85
SD 73 76
ND 71 88
MO 59 50
KS 74 72
IL 62 65
IN 63 62
OH 72 61
MI 52 79
WI 55 79

US 70 72

Old crop corn damage has all but shut off the export system with an estimated 500 barges or 27.5 mbu of damage barges sitting on the river in New Orleans waiting for better new crop corn to blend with. The Mississippi River is also at a high enough levels after last weeks rains in IA, WI, and Northern IL to shut down 5 locks to barge traffic. It will be import for water levels to recede heading into harvest so elevators can empty out the grain already sold to the market to make room for the new crop.

Scott Meyer

Monday July 26th, 2010

The absence of any significant weather threat to U.S. Midwest crops based on weather forecasts through mid August pressured corn futures prices Monday. Nearby September corn settled 7 1/4 cents lower at $3.64, and December corn ended 6 1/2 cents lower at $3.78 a bushel. The lack of a weather concern forced market participants to reduce risk exposure, as current weather forecasts support good crop production potential. Corn futures had previously rallied on outlooks for hot, dry weather and excessive rains in other parts of the U.S. crop belt to potentially undermine crop yield potential. However, extended weather forecasts do not pose a threat to production potential, enticing traders that previously bet on weather producing bullish price action to cover some previously bought positions. USDA weekly crop progress report showed corn at 72% good to excellent, down 1% from last week.