Friday, October 9, 2009

Corn and wheat futures were lower and soybeans higher in today’s trading. Dec corn finished down 1 ¾ cents today but, gained 29 cents this week. USDA was out with slightly higher production numbers this morning but, a lot of focus is on the weekend weather with frost and freezing expected through much of the northern corn belt. Nov soybeans finished 28 cents higher today capping a 79 cent gain this week. Delayed harvest along with good demand in place from both exporters and processors helped support prices even as USDA showed increased supplies will be ahead both domestically and from South America. Dec Chicago wheat futures finished 6 cents lower. Increased US and world supplies pressured wheat prices.

National average on highway diesel fuel prices continued down this week dropping almost 2 cents. Though supplies remain strong, trading this week is likely to start pushing prices up again.

Export sales out yesterday were generally disappointing for corn and soybeans. Substantially below the previous week’s very good numbers. However export sales still look strong overall. For the week ending September 24, unshipped grain export balances reached 35.3 million metric tons. 34% higher than last year at this time. Unshipped balances of soybeans are 95% higher than last year while corn unshipped balances are 15% higher than last year at this time. Part of the reason for the higher level of unshipped balances may be due to corn and soybean harvests that are delayed by rainy weather. Harvest pace should pick up over the next month compressing demand for transportation services across all modes into a shorter time period.

Have a great weekend!
Mike Etienne

USDA Update: 10/9/09

Report highlights:
Corn acres down 600,000, beans acres down 200,000, and wheat acres down 700,000
Corn exports cut 50
Bean exports increased 25

Corn yield 164.2 vs. 161.9 in Sept and 162.57 est.
Bean yield 42.4 vs. 42.3 in Sept and 42.78 est.

09/10 ending stocks
Corn 1.672 vs. 1.635 in Sept and 1.668 est.
Beans 230 vs. 220 in Sept and 249 est.
Wheat 864 vs 743 in Sept and 802 est.

Production
Corn 13.018 vs. 12.954 in Sept and 12.986 est.
Beans 3.250 vs. 3.245 in Sept and 3.281 est.

World ending stocks
Corn 136.3 vs. 139.1 in September
Beans 54.79 vs. 50.53 in Sept

CBOT calls as of 8:30 range from: corn down 3 to up 7, beans down 10 to up 10, and wheat down 5-10 to up 7.Let’s go with steady to a nickel either side to start in beans, corn down 3-5, and wheat down 5-10.Don’t be surprised with a two-sided day as the trades decides whether this week’s rally has factored in the wetter forecast.

Phil

Thursday, October 8, 2009

Thursday October 8, 2009

Good evening Elburn Coop blog readers. Once again it is Thursday, which means... Lets talk Energy. It appears we are still in the same cycle we have seen for the past couple months. Choppy day to day trade with about .10 cents of weekly volatility in product and $3.00 volatility in crude. Crude oil rose to a two week high today of $71.69, as the dollar declined and stocks rose on news that the number of Americans filling jobless claims dropped. New applications dropped to the lowest levels since January, but overall unemployment rose to 9.8%. The dollar dropped to a 14 month low, against a basket of currencies. It is thought that without the jobs data we would of only seen the energy market jump half of what it did. It appears the bulls ran with the data and we saw a .06 cent gain in both products today. The question is will there be positive news tomorrow to continue or will the bears pull things back a bit? What will the dollar do? What will the equity markets do? Overall we will most likely stay in the same range we have seen, choppy but steady numbers range.
Crude Oil
Crude Oil this week showed a draw of million bpd. It was not much of surprise with decreased imports and builds in product. It is an interesting tactic to increase production in a weak market, but it does create an illusion of increased demand any time a draw is recorded. Look a little further and you see a huge build in gas, I wonder what they turned the crude into?
Gasoline
Gas showed .05 losses yesterday as the DOE report showed builds of 2.9 million bpd. Expectations were a build of 1 million bpd, so needless to say it had a negative impact on prices. But short term losses came back today to close .06 cents higher as if yesterday didn't happen. Over all 4 week demand is up 6.2% percent from last year, giving cause to increased prices. Look to pay a little more at the pump by the weekend.
Diesel
Diesel saw gains of .065 cents today, which trump yesterday's .03 cent losses. As we have seen over the past couple of month in the market or you have seen as you drive around, not much is going on out on the road. Diesel's four week demand is down 9.5% from last year this time. The DOE reported builds of 700,000 bpd in product confirming yesterdays losses. It seems the market was a little over done today with .065 cent gains, look to get a little back tomorrow. If the market doesn't correct itself tomorrow,expect to pay more for your diesel as you get in the fields.

Zach Winter

Wednesday, October 7, 2009

Wednesday, October 7, 2009

Corn and soybean harvest has actually started in Northern Illinois. We have received the first bushels of the 2009 corn harvest today with the sample predictably wet at 30.9% moisture on the corn and 15.0% for soybeans.

The Corn market put in a more tempered session today after the sharp gains from Tuesday. Traders are looking forward to the USDA crop production estimate due Friday morning. The average trade guess for corn yield is 162.7 up slightly from USDA September estimate of 161.9. The ending stocks estimate of 1.675 billion bushels is pretty much reflecting thoughts that USDA will leave demand estimates unchanged this month. The current weather forecast is little changed with heavy rains forecast for much of the corn belt with cold weather to follow. The market will continue to monitor forecast for early next week with the 28 degree line currently projected to end the growing season for most all of the Western and Northern Corn Belt for Saturday through Monday night. The rumors earlier in the week of Brazilian ethanol imports still seems to be just that but seems like there could be a cargo or two at some point. Export sales report will be out tomorrow morning, corn sales are expected to be in the 28-39 million bushel range.

Soybeans were a quiet affair as well with futures gaining a couple after the $.25 gain on Tuesday. The bean market isn't nearly as concerned about the cold weather forecast for next week but export traders are getting concerned about the timing of harvest with export vessels waiting in port for the rain delayed harvest to start supplying the market. The trade guess for the Friday report is 42.9 bpa compared to 42.3 in September. The guess for ending stocks of 257 million bushels would imply that traders are looking for USDA to increase the demand estimate from a month ago. As mentioned last week, most of this demand is expected to be front end loaded with South American production currently expected to be up 25 million ton (919 mbu) from a year ago. This helps put a bit more perspective on exporters awaiting the U.S. soybean harvest, they need it now not later...

Phil

Tuesday, October 6, 2009

Tuesday October 7th, 2009

Commodity prices exploded higher today as renewed frost concerns arose. Corn finished up 17 cents after being up 29 at one time while soybeans finished up 25 after a high of 36 cents. Outside markets were also supportive with crude oil up $1 most of the day, the dow up 130 pts and the dollar lower. Weather maps point to an almost imminent frost for a majority of the northern corn belt this weekend and into early next week with forecasts of 28 degrees as far south as St. Louis.

The 6-10 day forecast also shows much below normal temps to further slow down the already late crop. Large moisture amounts are seen Thur - Fri over a large part of the belt to delay any harvest of crops that are ready to go. December 09 corn hit prices not seen since Aug 5th.

Corn bushels in jeopardy or not mature by this weekend include N. Dakota, S. Dakota, and Minnesota with 690 million bu combined, Iowa with 125 mbu, Nebraska 75 mbu, Wisconsin 183 mbu, and Illinois has the most at risk with estimates of 800 mbu.

Soybeans traded 25 cents higher in most part due to corn being up near limit. The soybean crop is not perceived to be in as much danger or loss from a frost this weekend, but weather outlook for the next 3-5 days will certainly impede harvest progress. Check the weather forecasts tonight to see what they have for low temps.

Scott Meyer

Monday, October 5, 2009

Monday October 5th, 2009

Corn finished the day higher on worries that a killing freeze could potentially damage the immature crop. The market has also been supported by a delayed harvest as the pipeline finds difficulty in sourcing corn. USDA said tonight that 10% of the crop has been harvested nation wide, traders had been looking for between 9% to 12%. The USDA also pegged maturity at 57% vs. 70% a year ago and 84% on the 5 year average.

Traders also said the market was getting support from talk that Brazil will need to import U.S. ethanol to alleviate a tight supply situation. The talk is that a U.S. company is going to ship two cargo's to Brazil.

Soybeans ended steady to modestly lower Monday, managing to find price support after initially sliding to 6-month lows. The "wildcard" of the market remains weather, and with the threat of a growing-season-ending Midwest freeze and the potential for additional harvest delays this week, cautious traders took the opportunity to cover some shorts after recent declines.

Chris Spurlock