Friday August 28th, 2009

Corn wound up lower on Friday as a lack of news and mixed outside markets left traders without much clear direction. So far the frost threat has helped to keep prices anchored, with the weekend forecast showing near record low temperatures moving over much of the corn belt this weekend.

Soybeans continued their climb upward as the November contract closed 15 cents higher on the day. Soybeans continue to find strength as the pipeline searches for supplies amid a very tight old crop supply, as well as how this weather will finish out the crop, and what effect it will have the potential yield.

Crude oil ended up slightly in choppy trading on Friday, after a downbeat consumer confidence report dented demand recovery hopes and offset higher consumer spending. Talk of crude futures prices being locked in range, with the top end at $75, and low end of $65.

Have a good weekend!
Chris Spurlock

Wednesday, August 26, 2009

Corn traded both sides throughout the session before ending just slightly lower. It continues to be a battle with no clear winner as the bulls fight the oncoming of a potentially record breaking crop and the bears must acknowledge that frost is still a legitimate concern. And so the dance continues. The Sep corn was down a penny and finished near $3.20; the Dec corn was down 1/2 cent and settled at $3.26. There was little to no news in the corn today. As such, corn was left to look elsewhere for influence. The outside markets had a bearish skew with crude oil spending most of the day trading lower and the dollar trading at its highest level in a week. The livestock markets continue to take it on the chin. Both the cattle and the hogs were down as much as $1.50 on the day.

Like the corn, the soybeans spent the session trading both sides of unchanged before finishing slightly lower. Most contracts were down 2-6 cents on the day. A general lack of fresh fundamental news led to the aimless direction of today’s trade. The cool Midwestern temps being forecast for the rest of this week have raised concern as soybeans are setting pods. While not as damaging as a frost could be, these temps are not likely to help the crop. Many in the country are also noting the emergence of white mold and sudden death syndrome, this is something that isn't too high on the mind of traders at this point.

Phil Farrell

Tuesday August 25th, 2009

Crop ratings out yesterday afternoon were very bearish as corn increased 4% G/E to 70% which is only 1% behind the record crop of 2004. Kansas, Michigan, Iowa, and Nebraska all up for the week with Illinois down 1% to 61%. Illinois is now 13% behind last year's rating while the nation is 6% above. Crop conditions also showed that the crop is still well behind normal for maturity and not much is made up late in the growing season. Markets started the day modestly higher as crude bounced up to $75/barrel then quickly retreated to $72 and in doing so took corn, soybeans, and wheat lower.

New crop corn and bean basis continue to be strong as limited cash sales and the inability of the futures market to go higher has limited sales vs a strong first quarter export program that is on the books.