Wow, The weather certainly was nice today now if only we can piece some more together. The corn market is taking notice of the rain plagued Eastern Cornbelt as futures with a $.09 gain today and now are at their highest level since January. Cash basis levels which have been strong all spring are taking a hit with producers rewarding the strong markets. We have been talking about the large amount of producer corn that is yet to move into the market and it is feeling like we are starting to see it happen. The heaviest movement is in the western corn belt where planting progress is near or ahead of normal. There is also a fair amount of commodity and index fund buying as other commodities also are rising to support the grains. Today Informa estimated U.S. corn acres at 83.9 million which is only about a million below the USDA planting intentions report and seems aggressive to those of us east of the Mississippi.
The Soybean market seemed to be up $.10 every day this week but in fact are only up $.20 from last Friday, there has been a lot of give and take as traders try to figure out acreage switching, Argentine soybean problems and the continued Chinese appetite for soybeans. This week there were trade discussions that China was: A) pushing May sales to June, B)old crop to new crop, C)outright cancellations and D)additional old crop purchases. At this point it seems that as long as there are doubts about the ability of Argentina to supply soybeans there will be Chinese demand for U.S. beans and they will be well supported. The new crop beans were only up $.08 for the week and are trying to follow the old contracts but ideas of additional acres could limit potential there for the time being.
For now, I'm hoping we have another weekend of sun and missed thundershowers so we can get some fieldwork done.
Phil Farrell
Friday, May 8, 2009
Wednesday, May 6, 2009
Wednesday May 6, 2009
Grain closing higher again in Chicago led by ideas of Shrinking soybean supplies out of Argentina and wet weather.
July Corn closed up 2 1/4 and December Corn closed up 1 3/4 in a fairly subdued trading session in the corn pit. I believe that corn will continue to show signs of support until the weather pattern opens up to a more inviting planting forecast for the eastern growing regions. Yet, I am currently unimpressed with the lack of performance to the upside especially as soybeans continue to rally.
Soybeans closed higher today with July Soybeans closing up 17 and November Soybeans closing up 17 1/2. The ideas of continued shrinking soybean supplies out of Argentina has the world supply shrinking as the Chinese appetite continues to show good demand. Interesting to note that even in a continued wet weather pattern new crop soybean prices continue to rally as showing a reluctance of farmer switching to new crop soybeans from corn.
Up and coming news:
USDA Export Sales Report 7:30am CST estimates as follows
Corn 800-1200 mt
Soybeans 300-400 mt
Jeff Neisler
July Corn closed up 2 1/4 and December Corn closed up 1 3/4 in a fairly subdued trading session in the corn pit. I believe that corn will continue to show signs of support until the weather pattern opens up to a more inviting planting forecast for the eastern growing regions. Yet, I am currently unimpressed with the lack of performance to the upside especially as soybeans continue to rally.
Soybeans closed higher today with July Soybeans closing up 17 and November Soybeans closing up 17 1/2. The ideas of continued shrinking soybean supplies out of Argentina has the world supply shrinking as the Chinese appetite continues to show good demand. Interesting to note that even in a continued wet weather pattern new crop soybean prices continue to rally as showing a reluctance of farmer switching to new crop soybeans from corn.
Up and coming news:
USDA Export Sales Report 7:30am CST estimates as follows
Corn 800-1200 mt
Soybeans 300-400 mt
Jeff Neisler
Tuesday, May 5, 2009
Tuesday May 5th, 2009
Soybean supply and demand continues to dominate the agriculture futures market. Old crop soybeans are $11.01 on the CBOT and the Morris Illinois River basis is 14.5 cents above that futures price! The market is trying to find a price where China quits buying our beans and where processors start slowing down crushing them as we see the carryout numbers for this year get down in the low 100 million bushel range. New crop soybean prices have also perked up and it seems as though the market still isn't concerned over corn planting progress. Planters have gingerly started rolling around the Sycamore and DeKalb area today. Weather forecasts have been supportive today to corn futures as the 5-10 day forecast for much of the corn belt shows off and on rain showers occurring.
One reason for the strong river basis this year has been the decrease in barge freight. With the slower economy and less raw materials being loaded at the gulf to be shipped north, grains have enjoyed better rates with less competition from other materials. Barge freight today is 60% cheaper than it was at this time last year. For a comparison on what the cheaper freight has meant to corn basis at the river consider this, Morris terminal corn basis tonight is -4 cents vs last year on this date at -41.
Scott Meyer
One reason for the strong river basis this year has been the decrease in barge freight. With the slower economy and less raw materials being loaded at the gulf to be shipped north, grains have enjoyed better rates with less competition from other materials. Barge freight today is 60% cheaper than it was at this time last year. For a comparison on what the cheaper freight has meant to corn basis at the river consider this, Morris terminal corn basis tonight is -4 cents vs last year on this date at -41.
Scott Meyer
Monday, May 4, 2009
Monday May 4th, 2009
Corn futures finished lower on Monday with improved planting weather weighing heavily on the market. Locally we have people in the fields planting today. Current weather forecasts indicate drier conditions over the next 10 days, with some rain in the eastern areas. The USDA reported corn plantings nation wide at 33 percent, slightly behind estimates of 35 to 40 percent and the 5 year average of 50 percent.
Soybean futures rose to a seven month high today, driven by tight stocks in the U.S. and technicals that are bringing in a fresh round of fund buying. Crude oil provided strength in oilseed's closing up over $1.50 a barrel. USDA is reporting soybean plantings at 6% complete vs. 11% 5-year average.
Chris Spurlock
Soybean futures rose to a seven month high today, driven by tight stocks in the U.S. and technicals that are bringing in a fresh round of fund buying. Crude oil provided strength in oilseed's closing up over $1.50 a barrel. USDA is reporting soybean plantings at 6% complete vs. 11% 5-year average.
Chris Spurlock
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