Good evening readers. Its Energy Thursday. It is becoming a theme,Energy losses, it seems the past couple of weeks my story reads the same. Three days of gains on the Energy market followed by a bearish DOE report, which gives all the gains back. It is what they call a sideways trend, with subtle twists. The twist is, every so often the gains or losses are too great or too little and we begin a new sideways trend. Today was our weekly reminder demand is down. The DOE report was released today due to the Veterans Day Holiday, and it caused a free fall. Crude dropped $2.34, gas and diesel both fell by .05 cents plus. DOE figures showed builds on crude at 1.8 million bpd, with refinery utilization down .7 percent, dropping overall refinery capacity to 79.9 percent. Gasoline had monster builds of 2.5 million bbl's; expectation were for inventories to remain unchanged. Diesel had builds of 300,000 bbl's, which early week analysts predictions were draws of 300,000 bbls. Demand figures continued to disappointed with gas down 1% on a four week average from last year. Diesel demand was down 13.8% from last year, both indicators of the economy still lagging. My short term outlook is somewhat neutral. Combined today's dollar gains and the DOE report information and losses don't seem as bad as they could of been. As with most things, memory is short term so look to see a flat day tomorrow with potential for small gains. It seems that the DOE report data affects or is it effects, the market for about a day and then its back to the dollar. "It's all about the dollar these days", my grandfather told me this twenty years ago, I just didn't know what he meant.
Signing OFF
Zach
Thursday, November 12, 2009
Wednesday, November 11, 2009
Wednesday, November 11, 2009
Was today a glass half full or half empty for the corn market? The bulls will point to new highs being made again today, while the bear will point to a close that was near session lows. Today there was fund buying to drive the market higher early on in the session but then as the dollar rallied values dropped off to trader lower before a recovery to unchanged, quite interesting really with the market selling off $.12 from the highs, rallying back to challenge them before closing unchanged. Producer selling today picked up for both old and new crop as producers sell near 6 month highs into the continued fund buying. Will the buying continue? or will producers in areas experiencing good yields get their selling shoes on?
The Soybean market put in a mixed day today as a ramifications of the November USDA crop report is still being absorbed by the market as larger US crop and a So. Hem crop that is 27 MMT larger than last year would seem to be a detrimental to higher prices. The US $ traded mostly firmer but fund buying, stronger crude oil, and stronger precious metals trumped the bearish USDA news allowing soybeans to finish the day firmer. Good harvest weather is currently forecast for most of the belt which should allow for soybean harvest progress to get largely wrapped up.
Phil Farrell
The Soybean market put in a mixed day today as a ramifications of the November USDA crop report is still being absorbed by the market as larger US crop and a So. Hem crop that is 27 MMT larger than last year would seem to be a detrimental to higher prices. The US $ traded mostly firmer but fund buying, stronger crude oil, and stronger precious metals trumped the bearish USDA news allowing soybeans to finish the day firmer. Good harvest weather is currently forecast for most of the belt which should allow for soybean harvest progress to get largely wrapped up.
Phil Farrell
Tuesday, November 10, 2009
Tuesday November 10th, 2009
USDA Report out this morning
Corn yield lowered from 164.2 in October to 162.9 with reports of 4.0% lower average ear weights in IL. The corn carryout for next year was lowered 50 mbu but still stands at 1.625 billion. Interesting to also see world corn supplies decreasing next year as well but only minimally. Corn started out on the defensive but managed to end up 8 cents today after a fury of technical fund buying late in the session. JP Morgan and Goldman Sacs released wires today touting buying commodities in their investment portfolios as the Goldman Sacs commodity fund is up 60% from lows set in December 2008. During that same period, corn is is up 32%, soybeans 24%, wheat 14%, crude oil 233%, and the US Dollar is -14%.
Soybeans were hit with a more negative report today with yields increased .9 bu/ac from 42.4 to 43.3 bu. Carryout for next year also increased from 230 million to 270. The Brazil crop was estimated at 63.0 mmt vs 62 in Oct and Argentina at 53 mmt vs 52.5 in Oct. South America seems poised for average-above average production this year but it's still early, equivalent to our May time period.
Scott Meyer
Corn yield lowered from 164.2 in October to 162.9 with reports of 4.0% lower average ear weights in IL. The corn carryout for next year was lowered 50 mbu but still stands at 1.625 billion. Interesting to also see world corn supplies decreasing next year as well but only minimally. Corn started out on the defensive but managed to end up 8 cents today after a fury of technical fund buying late in the session. JP Morgan and Goldman Sacs released wires today touting buying commodities in their investment portfolios as the Goldman Sacs commodity fund is up 60% from lows set in December 2008. During that same period, corn is is up 32%, soybeans 24%, wheat 14%, crude oil 233%, and the US Dollar is -14%.
Soybeans were hit with a more negative report today with yields increased .9 bu/ac from 42.4 to 43.3 bu. Carryout for next year also increased from 230 million to 270. The Brazil crop was estimated at 63.0 mmt vs 62 in Oct and Argentina at 53 mmt vs 52.5 in Oct. South America seems poised for average-above average production this year but it's still early, equivalent to our May time period.
Scott Meyer
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