Friday, May 22, 2009

The corn market was higher today and is testing levels not seen since January as the market comes to a better realization of the delicate nature of the new crop corn balance table. The rapid planting pace of the last several days has put some traders at ease but there is awareness that many areas are only just starting to get into the fields with rain forecast for much of Illinois in the Sunday night through Wednesday time period. The possibility of another rain delay for many areas that may only be 50% or less planted could put as many as 500,000 acres of potential corn ground now at risk. There also obviously begins to be discussion of yield potential with such a high percentage of the crop planted after May 15. There has been plenty of discussion of last years planting delays leading to good yields but can this be duplicated? Time will tell.

On the corn demand front there are plenty of questions as well but it is too early to be drastically altering USDA estimates for next year.

The bean market was a mixed bag today as old crop July futures were down $.09 with new cop November gaining a like amount. The July has gained significantly on the November in recent weeks so much of the action today could be termed profit taking but it will be interesting see what happens as we move forward with China still buying old crop beans from the U.S. and new crop acres possibly increasing due to the late corn planting. case in point, China imported 3.7 million ton of beans in April of this year, up from 2.4 a year ago. This type of activity could lend support back to the old crop contracts, something to watch. Locally we have seen a definite increase in producer selling of old crop beans as values reach their highest levels in 10 months.

Have a safe and productive weekend, Phil Farrell

Thursday May 21,2009

Soybean futures firmed on continued strong U.S domestic basis and good weekly US export sales.Positive crush margins in the US and China also suggest solid soy meal demand and possible higher US soybean crush if the soybeans are available. US domestic soybean basis continues to firm but so far farmers are reluctant sellers of old crop soybeans.
Corn futures closed slightly lower on the day July was down 2 cents with new crop December down only 1 cent.The latest weather forecast has rain returning to the eastern Midwest early next week. However we could see a return to drier weather later in the week which helped pressure corn corn futures on Thursday. The initial estimates for next weeks crop progress report have 80 percent of the crop planted which is above Mondays 62 percent but still well below the 5 year average. Traders seem content to hold on to their positions until more is known about this crop

Chuck Peterson

Wednesday May 16, 2009

Grains today in Chicago closed mostly higher. Though significantly off their daily highs. The retreat from the highs was lead by long liquidation in nearby corn and soybeans and especially following liquidation of July/November bull spreads after touching new highs at +1.72. Support was seen by the US Dollar Index trading below support today.

Corn closed nearly unchanged after a surge on the open was met with selling. This an indication of ample corn stocks around and heavy farmer ownership. Though many feel that if the rain develops over the weekend that corn could advance a quick 50 cents especially in December. As soon, yield drags from late planting will become ever more important.

Soybeans closed higher although, more rumors circulating about Chinese cargoes getting moved to new crop. Still appears that US farmers are reluctant to switch many acres to soybeans even this late in the game.

Jeff Neisler

Tuesday May 19th, 2009

Old crop soybeans once again took the lead in the futures market today. Old beans were up 15 cents amid Informa coming out with a projection of 77 million bushels of carryout this year vs the 130 mbu the USDA forecast just a week ago. A carryout of 77 mbu would dictate demand rationing pricing as many believe the soybean "pipeline stocks" number is around 120 million bushels. Pipeline stocks refers to every processor and the export market having their silos full and soybeans in barges and trains heading for export to transition to the new crop months.

A lot of corn should get planted East of the Mighty Miss this week but traders are still cautious as they look at their calendars, realizing trend line yields would need optimum growing conditions from here to harvest to be attained.

Scott Meyer

Monday May 16th, 2009

Corn took a while to break out of its downward spiral, trading lower while the other grains were working higher. Finally, spillover noncommercial buying reached the corn pit from stronger wheat and soybean futures, energy markets, and Dow Jones, allowing corn to finish modestly higher on the day. Holding Corn futures ended the day higher on Monday as spillover support from the outside markets, with higher crude oil and stocks, outweighed bearish drier weather pattern. USDA released their weekly crop plantings this afternoon showing nation wide plantings at 62%, vs. 70% last year. Illinois and Indiana still significantly behind with only 20% and 24% planted respectively.

Commodities other than gold rose broadly on Monday after a stock market surge fueled by shares of U.S. home building firms bolstered investor sentiment the recession was ebbing despite recent contrary data. U.S. crude oil futures jumped nearly 5 percent, recouping Friday's losses and coming within striking distance of the $60-a-barrel target eyed by market bulls.

Chris Spurlock