Friday April 16, 2010

Good afternoon bloggers!

Today the market finished up on corn, beans, and wheat. Corn finished up +1 cent @ $3.64. Bean finished +1 cent @ $9.85. Wheat finished up +10 cents at $4.90.

Corn opened the day down which had everyone on the edge of their seats. But corn was able to pull though and finish the day on a modest gain. July corn finished +16 cents for this week. Planting progress is 15% complete this season which is ahead of the national average. Looks like everyone is anxious to get planted early this time around. The situation brewing in China has people turning heads. Sources are saying that 'China is to sell another 1.4mmt of corn...the highest price going for about $7.47 per bushel.

Beans were up today as well. Sources are also saying that our friends in South America are planning another strike because they want lower export taxes on beans. Hopefully strike #2 will boost Uncle Sam's bean prices even higher next week. We will see if that plays a role.

It will be interesting to see what the market has in store for us this upcoming week. Farmers are going 'balls to the wall' to get planted, South America is working out some troubles, and the Corn Belts next big rain will not be until NEXT weekend. With a variety of other factors playing a role in the price of commodities, it will be very interesting to see how the market will react this coming week.

I've been questioned quite a bit about the volcano in Iceland today. I have not been hearing too much news in regards to the volcano situation other than what's on the local news. The ash is grounding aircraft and poses some air quality issues, but in terms of commodities I have not been hearing much news.

I hope you all enjoy the weather and have a pleasant weekend.

Stay classy Illinois,
Nathaniel Dubravec

Thursday April 15th, 2010

Well, its that time, hopefully all are busy, in count of our gorgeous spring. Fuel has finally cooled this week with small gains on product of about .03 cents. Today was an interesting day with diesel the only energy commodity gaining by about a cent. While yesterday it was the only dog on the DOE report, and still posted gains. I can't make heads or tails of it, but either way its fact. Crude was down .33 cents but with negative employment news and a strong dollar, losses were minimal. If I were a betting man, I would look to see a jump towards $87 dollar crude tomorrow; today's close was $85.51.

There is a lot of talk out there about an expensive fuel affair coming this summer and thus far the market has supported such rumors. Gains have come in storms, and losses when they occur, are minimal at best. The current weight of a strong dollar, higher unemployment numbers, and the boys in Greece wondering how they got in so much trouble, seems to be the only thing keeping a lid on energy. I think a couple weeks of dollar losses is all the market needs to run crude to $90, which in turn will bring $3.50 plus diesel and gas. With any luck, the rest of the commodities market will jump on board and take an up tick, but we have yet to see any strong correlation.
Good wishes planting.
Zach Winter

Wednesday April 14, 2010

Fact: It was on this day in 1865 that US President Abraham Lincoln was assassinated by John Booth.

Good afternoon! My, my today was a thriller. Only after corn and beans took a roller coaster ride did both commodities finish up on the day. Corn closed at $3.58 +5 cents on the day. Beans closed at $9.69 +1 cent on the day. Corn futures were up +5 cents across the board. September beans (SU0) were up +4 cents @ $9.54.

We had a nice little rally today with corn. Corn was +10 cents at one point today, but still closed +5 cents. Beans were down early today and were able to fight back into positive ground. It's hard to say why commodity prices are strengthening while planting is going on. A weak dollar and slow South American farmer selling may be contributing. Regardless, the price of corn and beans has been going in the right direction.

Illinois River corn basis is currently at -.03 nearby. Nearby bean river basis is -.17. The basis is firming and hopefully futures will continue to strengthen as well. New Orleans is currently bidding +44 cents for nearby corn and +38 for beans.

Today we saw a high of 82 degrees in Morris and will tomorrow as well. Birds, bees, flowers, and the trees are all doing their thing with this weather. After tomorrow it's expected to cool, but stay sunny for quite some time. Producers that have been able to finish field work are now going 'full bore' and getting some serious planting done.

We hope everyone has a safe spring and planting season.

Stay classy Illinois,
Nathaniel Dubravec

Monday April 12th, 2010

Corn ended higher Monday on a weaker dollar, although traders and analysts remain unenthused about the market's fundamentals. Prices were higher for most of the day thanks to the weaker dollar, which typically steers investors into commodities. But prices could not climb more than 4-5 cents, and traders said the upside would remain limited if the weather stayed favorable to planting. Some traders and analysts say bears could be hard-pressed to push the market too much lower, given that prices are already relatively low and a long planting season still awaits. USDA pegged corn planting Nation wide at 3%, traders on average were looking for 4% to 6%.

Soybean futures ended mixed, with nearby old-crop contracts climbing on fundamental and outside financial market support. Follow-through buying from Friday's supportive supply and demand report, an unexpected export sale to China and weakness in the U.S. dollar served as the catalyst to lift nearby contracts. Friday's USDA report was quite bullish versus expectations and with a fresh export sale of U.S. soybeans Monday confirming strong old-crop demand, front month futures were firmly underpinned. Bull spreading was featured once again as fear of tight old-crop ending stocks versus record new-crop acreage outlooks widened the differential between old-crop and new-crop futures.