A beautiful day outside and a stronger dollar were enough to push corn $.095 lower today. The noon weather maps seemed to show substantially warmer than normal weather for the 6 to 14 day period with some rains but not enough to keep planting progress from kicking into gear. There were reports of planters in the field in Northern Illinois with some areas of Iowa, Minnesota and Wisconsin reporting very active planting! December futures lost $.15 this week in a blah week in comparison to soybeans in particular.
Speaking of soybeans, the old crop rally led by continued Chinese bean demand and lower Argentina crop expectations took a break today as traders took the improved weather outlook as reasoning to take some profits after the $2.00 rally since mid March. Is it over? Well that seems to be tied export sales and the resulting impact on ending stocks, the April USDA S&D report projected 165 million bushel carryover, the trade currently seems to be assuming about 120 currently and is worried about having adequate stocks to carry us to new crop. This explains why July futures are now $1.00 higher than November as the market scrambles for available supplies. Basis values appear to be backing away somewhat vs nearby futures but the old to new crop spread seems to continue strong. It will until the rally is over.
Have a safe and productive weekend, Phil Farrell
Friday, April 17, 2009
Thursday, April 16, 2009
April 16, 2009
Corn prices spent the majority of the day on the defense but managed to climb into positive territory near the end of the trading session. A surge in both soybeans and wheat helped push corn prices higher. Traders are expecting planting to begin in full force next week as several areas through out the corn belt are expected to have warm, dry weather. Export sales were firm today on both corn and soybeans with corn coming in at 42.5 million bushels and soybeans at 29.8 million bushels. China continues to be the leading buyer of U.S. soybeans as problems in Argentina continue to wage on.
The latest rally has traders cautiously remembering 2008, when commodity markets were at record levels. Grains, oil seeds, crude oil and gold all soared to record highs amid strong global demand for food and an unprecedented inflow of fund money as investors looked for a hedge against inflation. The current rally in soybeans is more subdued, with prices driven largely by one basic concern, too few beans.
The latest rally has traders cautiously remembering 2008, when commodity markets were at record levels. Grains, oil seeds, crude oil and gold all soared to record highs amid strong global demand for food and an unprecedented inflow of fund money as investors looked for a hedge against inflation. The current rally in soybeans is more subdued, with prices driven largely by one basic concern, too few beans.
Wednesday, April 15, 2009
Wednesday April 15, 2009
Mixed trade in the grains today in Chicago with corn leading the way on the downside. May Corn closed 9 3/4 lower and December Corn 9 1/2 lower both near the low. While, May Soybeans closed 1 lower and November Soybeans closed up 3/4 of a cent.
Corn, all weather-- flipping forecasts influencing ideas of returning to a more normal weather pattern easing the need for weather premium in the corn market as we look into mid next week in this futures market. Although, many feel that we need to get started planting before we can take too much weather premium out of the market. Corn Values likely to slide sideways to lower though in a grid like trade. Interesting to note: new crop corn sales one year ago at 79.0 mbu vs currently new crop corn sales an embarrassing 17.6 mbu. Credit problems or... ideas of cheaper prices down the road???
Soybeans, needing to source supplies to accompany Chinese appetite as Argentina supplies seem to be lower than expected, and secure premiums to insure new crop soybean plantings. Look for the USDA to revise soybean exports up as the Chinese appetite is hanging around longer than expected.
Upcoming News: WEATHER THE MARKET MAKER
USDA Export Sales 7:30am cst estimates as follows:
Corn 31-37 mbu
Soybeans 18-33 mbu
Wheat 11-15 mbu
Jeff Neisler
Corn, all weather-- flipping forecasts influencing ideas of returning to a more normal weather pattern easing the need for weather premium in the corn market as we look into mid next week in this futures market. Although, many feel that we need to get started planting before we can take too much weather premium out of the market. Corn Values likely to slide sideways to lower though in a grid like trade. Interesting to note: new crop corn sales one year ago at 79.0 mbu vs currently new crop corn sales an embarrassing 17.6 mbu. Credit problems or... ideas of cheaper prices down the road???
Soybeans, needing to source supplies to accompany Chinese appetite as Argentina supplies seem to be lower than expected, and secure premiums to insure new crop soybean plantings. Look for the USDA to revise soybean exports up as the Chinese appetite is hanging around longer than expected.
Upcoming News: WEATHER THE MARKET MAKER
USDA Export Sales 7:30am cst estimates as follows:
Corn 31-37 mbu
Soybeans 18-33 mbu
Wheat 11-15 mbu
Jeff Neisler
Tuesday, April 14, 2009
Tuesday April 14th, 2009
The old crop soybean supply and demand situation is getting interesting! Traders are listening to below expected yield reports out of Argentina and farmers in those drought regions holding on tightly to what stocks they have. The USDA April carryout of 165 mbu may get cut again in the May 12th report as China demand has spurred exports at a time when they usually buy from South America.
Brazil harvest seen over 70% complete and farmer selling is at least 10% behind that of a year ago. A tighter old crop soybean supply will also be noted with new crop S&D projections which have the soybean : corn ratio ratcheting back up to 2.21:1 (Dec 09 @ $4.25 and Nov 09 @ $9.39). Only a month ago that ration was below 2:1 when old crop soybean supplies were thought to be abundant.
Corn strength lies in the weather with little planting and below normal temps persisting. It will be nice to get a little warm weather heading into the weekend and hope to miss the showers Sat, Sun, and Monday.
Scott Meyer
Brazil harvest seen over 70% complete and farmer selling is at least 10% behind that of a year ago. A tighter old crop soybean supply will also be noted with new crop S&D projections which have the soybean : corn ratio ratcheting back up to 2.21:1 (Dec 09 @ $4.25 and Nov 09 @ $9.39). Only a month ago that ration was below 2:1 when old crop soybean supplies were thought to be abundant.
Corn strength lies in the weather with little planting and below normal temps persisting. It will be nice to get a little warm weather heading into the weekend and hope to miss the showers Sat, Sun, and Monday.
Scott Meyer
Monday, April 13, 2009
April 13, 2009
Soybeans saw the largest gains today in grains closing up 14 cents in the nearby contract as China was back in the market sourcing beans. China, the worlds top importer of soybeans, has been sourcing beans primarily out of the U.S. and Brazil due to Argentina's tension between producers and the government.
Corn wound up finishing the day on the lower side as both lower crude and weaker stocks weighed down on the market, though it finished off it lows helped primarily by wet weather. The USDA released their first planting progress report tonight, showing corn plantings at just 2% on par with last year, yet behind the average of 5% to 7% at this time. Rainfall in the south and east expected to keep field work and early plantings at a minimum.
Chris Spurlock
Corn wound up finishing the day on the lower side as both lower crude and weaker stocks weighed down on the market, though it finished off it lows helped primarily by wet weather. The USDA released their first planting progress report tonight, showing corn plantings at just 2% on par with last year, yet behind the average of 5% to 7% at this time. Rainfall in the south and east expected to keep field work and early plantings at a minimum.
Chris Spurlock
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