Friday, June 12, 2009

Friday June 12, 2009

Ag commodities took it on the chin today with corn losing $.15, old beans $.20 and new down .13. Yesterday the market seemed to find support in forecast calling for heat to begin in the the 5 day and beyond forecast, today the market seemed to realize that this is just what producers are looking for in most parts of the belt. A rebound in the value of the Dollar seemed to pressure the Ag commodities as well.

The July corn contract lost $.18 for the week with December down $.20 as traders assess the adequate old crop stocks and new crop production and demand prospects. Traders will be watching for the weekly crop ratings out Monday afternoon with expectations of slight improvement vs last year and leaving ratings nearly 15 points better than a year ago. The July and December corn contracts both had a hard time pushing through key resistance levels of $4.50 and $4.70 this week and that looks to continue unless a weather threat develops.

The soybean market had nearly a $.50 range from the night session through the end of the day session before closing lower, for the week beans were able to post modest gains with July up $.20 and November gaining $.15. The soybean market will continue to weigh old crop bean tightness vs an apparently more comfortable new crop situation provided the opportunity to get the balance of the crop in the ground. Traders expect the Monday planting report to show about 10 million acres left to plant a seemingly significant number. I would expect to see continued volatility in the old crop / new crop soybean spreads as the market searches for a price to ration the historically tight 110 million bushel carryout.

Thursday, June 11, 2009

Thursday June 11, 2009

Despite a hard break by soy oil yesterday, it joined meal and soybeans in moving higher. July soybeans settled near 12.67 and up 21 cents. Corn futures also closed higher on the day July futures closed up 5 cents the range was 4.36-4.47.The lower dollar and the higher energy prices offered strong support. Wheat lagged the grain complex today on good weather ideas

Chuck Peterson

Wednesday, June 10, 2009

Wednesday June 10, 2009

Grains in Chicago closed with a mixed tone today. USDA report was basically in line with expectations. In outside markets, the dollar started lower and finished higher

Corn opened higher and finished lower testing key resistance in July Corn at 4.50. New crop supply and demand tables were bullish in themselves. Yet, the wild card is how much wheat can be substituted into especially feed rations is a question in many traders minds.

Soybean supply and demand for old crop remains extremely bullish. A stocks to use ratio of 3.6% is nearly unheard of. I would imagine that old crop soybean premiums continue to build on new crop. Additionally early harvested soybeans might carry a large premium over October delivery.

Jeff Neisler

Tuesday, June 9, 2009

Tuesday June 9th, 2009

Highlights:
Crude up $2.00 to $70/barrel
US Dollar down sharply today
Funds bought 7000 Corn, 4000 beans, and 5000 wheat

Corn market had a "Turn-Around-Tuesday" trade as it bounced right back up the 9 cents it lost Monday. The outside markets supported Agriculture futures as did the trade sentiment of a slightly tighter 08-09 and 09-10 supply and demand picture the the USDA may project on tomorrow mornings report. Ethanol margins are slowly starting to increase even as the price of corn goes up due do the stronger crude oil prices. Livestock margins continue to disappoint and feed usage should probably be adjusted lower on tomorrow's report.

Illinois River corn basis has shown good strength this week as producer movement has been slow. Soybean demand is also strong along the river posting basis values of +10 cents.

Scott Meyer

Monday, June 8, 2009

Monday June 8, 2009

Crop progress report out tonight has nation wide corn plantings at 97% vs. 97% last year and 99% on the 5 year average. Conditions on corn was shown at 69% good to excellent vs. 60% last year at this time. Firmness in the dollar, which hurts prospects for U.S. supplies on the export market, caused corn and wheat futures to weaken. Improved planting conditions in key areas of the eastern Corn Belt during the weekend, as well as some showers in states such as Iowa, also contributed to the drop in corn.

Tight stocks of U.S. soybeans fueled a rally in nearby soybean futures to a nine-month high on Monday, but deferred contracts weakened due to expectations of a plentiful harvest. Tight supply concerns are pressuring soybeans and the market will remain well supported for the time being, as concerns of lower crop yields and strong export demand will continue to dominate the market, commented one trader.

USDA CROP PRODUCTION REPORT DUE OUT WEDNESDAY MORNING AT 7:30 A.M. CST.

~Chris Spurlock