Note: Corn Products in Chicago will remain open for corn truck deliveries until 3 PM on Saturday, October 31, 2009. After closing Saturday they will re-open at 5AM on Monday, November 2, 2009.

On the roads… The IL 23 bridge over Buck Creek no longer has a posted weight limit. Normal weight limits apply. The IL 23 bridge over Indian Creek, north of US52 remains one lane only at this time.

In today’s trading, grain futures finished a down week with a sharply lower Friday. Sharply lower equity and oil markets led grain futures lower on the day. Thoughts of drier weather in store for next week kept any reaction to the current wet weather at bay. Dec corn finished down 13 ½ today and down 32 for the week. Nov soybeans closed down 7 ½ cents today and down 28 for the week. Dec Chicago wheat futures finished 9 ½ lower on the day and 53 ½ lower for the week.

National average on highway diesel fuel prices jumped another 9.6 cents in this weeks report. This makes the third straight week of up moves. These are the highest levels seen since November 2008.

We were able to get in a little corn harvest between rain drops this week. Getting trucks in and out of fields was challenging but, most have made good field entry and exit plans. Drivers have done a great job working with the field conditions. More rain last night and today will almost certainly keep us out of the fields this weekend and into early next week. Drier weather starting Saturday for several days promises to give us better opportunity for harvest work next week.

Have a great weekend!
Mike Etienne

October 29th, 2009

Good evening blog readers. Thursday is already here, which means, Energy. I bring news of Energy gains. Crude oil settled 3% higher at close today, just under the $80 mark at $79.87. The large bounce in today's market was driven by news that the economy is growing. GDP rose 3.5 percent in the third quarter. Of course today's energy gains are a wash after yesterdays losses, but the positive economic news has created a shift in short term direction. Yesterdays DOE report was interpreted as bearish with builds in crude oil of 800,000 bpd, builds in gas at 1.7 million bpd and draws in diesel of 2.1 million bpd. Just in itself the report is kind of neutral, but in context of early week reporting by the API of large draws across the board, the market reacted bearish with a mild sell off. Losses of .08 cents on gas, .05 cents on diesel, and $2.09 on crude seemed to provide the start of profit taking before months end. But just as we thought a downward push was coming, more money entered the energy market, giving it a firm bounce. Tomorrow could set the tone for next weeks trade as the bulls aim for the $80s on crude. Unfortunately, it seems yesterdays losses will not reach the public end users with gains today, the short term outlook is still bullish on Energy.
Market News:
- Key energy complex catalysts- the dollar's weak showing and stock market gains will continue to push the complex higher.
- Iraq's Oil Ministry said a final deal would be signed on November 3rd with BP and China's CNPC to develop Iraq's largest oilfield.
- Jobs data- is due November 6Th. Currently we are at annual highs, look for the data to provide energy direction. Most likely a gain will only confirm what we think and loss will cause the market to move higher.
- Home buying- It is suspected the Senate will extend the first time home buyer credit to help spur home sales, no time frame has been established.
- Iran- Obama has signed legislation that will penalize oil companies that export gasoline to Iran. This marks the first economic sanctions that Congress has passed regarding Iran.
- US Diesel and Gas Demand- Diesel demand overall is down 13.1% over a 4 week average from last year; While gas is only down 1.9%.

Good luck out there.
Zach

Wednesday, October 28, 2009

The corn market opened lower today based on an improving weather forecast as well as continued recovery in the U.S. Dollar index. The market attempted to rally mid day before closing $.015 lower for the day. The current weather forecast calls for late week rains but a warm dry pattern to begin next week prompting ideas of improving harvest conditions. The market continues to debate the impact of the wet with widespread disease reports and below normal test weight indications, the trade continues to debate a wide range of crop production ideas. It will be interesting to see where the market evolves to on crop size ideas as we approach the November USDA production report two weeks from now. Will the USDA factor expected harvest delays and test weight issues into this report?

Soybeans also continue to see liquidation on ideas of improving weather forecast for more active harvest next week after late week rains end. Delta states, where harvest should have been rapped up a month ago, will have to withstand another pounding 2 to 4 inch rain system following seven weeks of rain before drier weather persists there. We are seeing many in the trade indicating the potential for the 150 million bushels of beans left in the field in the delta to be literally written off due to field damage. Here is to hoping that next week brings back the chance to get some beans out of the field.

Phil Farrell

Tuesday October 27th, 2009

Crop Progress released Monday afternoon

Corn Harvested
US 20% vs 17% lw and 58% avg
Ill 14% vs 11% lw and 77% avg

Soybean Harvest
US 44% vs 30% lw and 80% avg
ILL 33% vs 13% lw and 86% avg

The corn, soybean, and wheat market were all down significantly today with corn losing 7 cents, soybeans 13, and wheat 23. Markets continue to be influenced by a good harvest weather outlook next week. Most of the Midwest is expected to get rain this Thur and Fri but then quickly dry out for the most productive harvest week of the season. Outside markets were slightly higher today with crude up $.80 and the dow up 14 pts to 9882. Harvest progress continues to run a record slow pace. Corn moisture levels are also at record high levels throughout Nebraska, Iowa, MN, and Illinois. Nationally, below average crop condition reports continue to follow above average yield reports on corn.

In the delta, it is estimated nearly 100 million bushels of soybeans are damaged in the field and they will all have to hit the market place when harvested as they will not store. China was also noted today looking to defer Jan-Mar cargoes of beans to other destinations which also led to the weakness in Soybeans. As the day light turns shorter and the harvest progress picks up, please remember to be safe.

Scott

Monday October 26th, 2009

Corn and soybeans took steep loses on Monday profit taking set in after a hitting a four month high, coupled with a stronger dollar and "improved" weather forecast for next week. Dollar bounced from 14-month lows, sparking a broad-base sell-off in commodities. Funds sold an estimated 13,000 contracts today. The USDA released their weekly crop progress report which put US corn harvest at 20%. Traders had been expecting 20% to 25% for this week, up only slightly from last weeks 17%. The 5-year average for corn harvesting at this time has been 58%. With the Federal Reserve's benchmark interest rate holding steady at a record low of near zero, analysts say the dollar has more room to fall. Low interest rates can spur economic activity, but they also tend to weaken a nation's currency as investors search for higher returns elsewhere.

USDA said soybean harvested was at 44 percent, an increase from 30 percent last week, but still below 80 percent averaged during the previous 5 crop years. Corn harvested was estimated at 20 percent versus 17 percent last week and a 58 percent historical average.

Chris Spurlock