Both the corn and wheat markets took it on the chin today as the dollar continues to climb higher and crude oil dropped back. Pressure from warmer weather in the U.S. Midwest that is seen boosting development of the corn crop, leading to potential bigger crop production, but strong soy futures limited losses. Funds continue to focus on the recent private analyst forecasts that if realized would make this year the second largest corn crop in U.S. history.
Tightening old-crop inventories in the face of strong domestic and export demand served as the rallying cry for bullish soybean traders. Old-crop contracts led the upward assault, with reports of processors scrambling for supplies keeping sellers on the run. Soybean traders also grew concerned today due to hotter weather expected over most of the corn belt, which could pose a threat as soybeans began setting pods.
Chris Spurlock
Friday, August 7, 2009
Thursday, August 6, 2009
Thursday, August 6, 2009
Grain markets opened lower today and remained so for the duration of the day, ending down hardest in wheat. The culprits for today’s losses were a rather strong dollar, weak crude oil, and a shift in attitude about the warmer weather set to move into the Midwest by the weekend.
Corn was weighed down today by benign weather, bearish outside markets, and the results of Informa’s survey still on trader’s minds. Many private forecasters are looking for beneficial rains into next week to finish off what is already seen to be a near record large US corn crop. Prior to the open many traders were expecting that a strong corn export sales report would support values not to be no bounce was seen with selling pressure increasing throughout the day. The export sales report showed 16.6 million bushels of old crop corn sold bringing unshipped sales to 278 million which is 25% above a year ago. This would indicate that export shipments from the U.S. should continue steady right into new crop. This friendly influence hasn't been able to offset the negative influence of perceived weather forecasts and rapidly deteriorating conditions in the livestock sector.
A stronger dollar led to profit-taking in beans today, with strong exports being the only bullish news of mention. Today’s export numbers came in at 494 thousand ton of old crop, and 2.4 mil tons of new crop. Estimates were in the 2.1-2.35 mil tons range. The concerns about hot weather moving into the Midwest and settling are lessening, as chances for rain remain strong, and the most in the trade seem to feel that the crop looks poised for record yields.
Phil Farrell
Corn was weighed down today by benign weather, bearish outside markets, and the results of Informa’s survey still on trader’s minds. Many private forecasters are looking for beneficial rains into next week to finish off what is already seen to be a near record large US corn crop. Prior to the open many traders were expecting that a strong corn export sales report would support values not to be no bounce was seen with selling pressure increasing throughout the day. The export sales report showed 16.6 million bushels of old crop corn sold bringing unshipped sales to 278 million which is 25% above a year ago. This would indicate that export shipments from the U.S. should continue steady right into new crop. This friendly influence hasn't been able to offset the negative influence of perceived weather forecasts and rapidly deteriorating conditions in the livestock sector.
A stronger dollar led to profit-taking in beans today, with strong exports being the only bullish news of mention. Today’s export numbers came in at 494 thousand ton of old crop, and 2.4 mil tons of new crop. Estimates were in the 2.1-2.35 mil tons range. The concerns about hot weather moving into the Midwest and settling are lessening, as chances for rain remain strong, and the most in the trade seem to feel that the crop looks poised for record yields.
Phil Farrell
Wednesday, August 5, 2009
Wednesday August 5th, 2009
Corn futures ended the day lower after a disappointing report from Informa pegged U.S. crop production at 157.1 bu/acre or 12.554 billion bushels for this growing season. Next week the USDA will release their August crop production report, with many analysts and traders predicting a lower corn acreage number. Though many are expecting a decrease in the number of acres planting, an increase in the overall yield could offset this and have a bearish effect on the market.
Soybeans recovered after falling earlier in the session on estimates for a big U.S. crop, traders said. Private analytical firm Informa Economics said its "mostly likely" final estimate for soybean production was 3.322 billion bushels, with an average yield of 43.5 bushels per acre, traders said. Informa estimated the USDA next week will peg production at 3.177 billion bushels, with an average yield of 41.6 bushels per acre, traders said.
The government's crop estimates are due at 7:30 a.m. CST on Aug. 12.
Soybeans recovered after falling earlier in the session on estimates for a big U.S. crop, traders said. Private analytical firm Informa Economics said its "mostly likely" final estimate for soybean production was 3.322 billion bushels, with an average yield of 43.5 bushels per acre, traders said. Informa estimated the USDA next week will peg production at 3.177 billion bushels, with an average yield of 41.6 bushels per acre, traders said.
The government's crop estimates are due at 7:30 a.m. CST on Aug. 12.
Tuesday, August 4, 2009
Tuesday August 4th, 2009
Corn, Soybeans, and Wheat took a breather today and closed down slightly. Markets have been supported by the anticipated warmest days of the year over much of the Midwest next week. Crop conditions were also down slightly in corn and unchanged in soybeans on Monday night's report. Corn in Minnesota and Wisconsin took the brunt of the lower ratings due to dryness developing.
FC Stone came out this week with a 160 bu/ac national corn yield this year and that could peg the carryout at 2 billion bushels next year. Informa will come out with estimates tomorrow ahead of the Aug 12 USDA report that will use RESURVEYED acres (trade looking at .5 - 1.0 million less corn acres). Basis levels continue to remain firm for this time of year and may be firm all the way up to harvest if futures don't break out again to the upside.
Scott Meyer
FC Stone came out this week with a 160 bu/ac national corn yield this year and that could peg the carryout at 2 billion bushels next year. Informa will come out with estimates tomorrow ahead of the Aug 12 USDA report that will use RESURVEYED acres (trade looking at .5 - 1.0 million less corn acres). Basis levels continue to remain firm for this time of year and may be firm all the way up to harvest if futures don't break out again to the upside.
Scott Meyer
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)
Posts
