January 30, 2009

Thank you to all who attended our Agricultural Seminar yesterday, we hope you were able to pull something of value from the day.

There isn't much interesting coming from the CBOT these days. Commodities were mixed again with corn losing $.03 today and $.11 for the week. Soybeans gained $.10 today but were down $.30 for the week. The Argentine weather situation hasn't changed a whole lot this past week as it is still dry, current forecasts however call for decent coverage of 1 -2 inches over the next week and that has been enough to keep prices in check. On the demand front we have seen a definite pick-up in corn export sales as we have now put in two weeks in a row of over 40 million bushels sold with a third likely considering USDA announced a 213,000 ton sale to Japan today.

It is interesting to read that many elevators are reporting relatively slow producer movement in the past month. Please keep in mind that this years corn crop may require extra care as much of the grain we have seen moving is relatively high in Foreign Material likely created by drying high moisture corn. We have seen discounts rising at most all destinations for FM so this is likely a problem in many areas. If you have farm stored corn we encourage you to monitor your storage bins to mitigate this problem. The best solution we know of is to move a couple of loads out of each bin to keep the core of the bin fresh.

Have a good weekend, Phil Farrell

January 29, 2009

Grains continue to see pressure from the outside markets as South American weather forecast continue to show improvements. For the day soybeans lost 12 cents on the front month and corn lost 2 3/4 cents. Corn was the strongest performer in the grain complex on Thursday with export sales coming in at 43.6 million bushels, which represents double the amount needed for this week to keep pace with the USDA's projection of 1.75 billion bushels. Soybean export sales came in at 19.3 million bushels which was a decline from last week but on pace to meet the USDA's 1.1 billion bushel projection. The next two export reports for soybeans are expected to fall even father as China is celebrating their New Year.

Chris Spurlock

January 28, 2009

Grains closed higher today, attempting to consolidate yesterday's losses after a forecast adjustment to include more rain for South America. Corn closed up 7, nearby soybeans closed up 6 1/2 and new crop soybeans closed 1 lower. It appears that the market is torn between larger new crop soybean acres and tighter old crop supplies in the world with the short falls being in South America. As I write this commentary, the grain market is still trapped in a sideways range in soybeans 10.60-9.60 and in corn 4.00-3.50 basis front end futures. This market is awaiting a close outside of these ranges to confirm the next aggressive move.

Up and coming news: US December census soybean crush 7am estimates near 141 million bushels vs. 144 in November and 164 last year. USDA export sales 7:30am estimates on soybeans range is: 550-750 mt; corn range is 600-800 mt.

Jeff Neisler

January 27, 2009

A minimal increase in precipitation in the 5-10 weather forecast for South America was all the nervous market needed to sell off. Traders are trying to get a handle on the actually crop size due to the extreme drought but also noted is the extreme reduction in the world wide demand of corn and soybeans. Ethanol companies continue to struggle with razor thin margins. Livestock numbers continue to decline as is does the demand. Exports have been pleasantly suprising and in line with early preditions for soybeans but are poor for corn. Crude oil prices falling $3.88 a barrel today due to the poor economic confidence did not help the Ag markets today. The weather in South America should dominate the price action for the next 30 days unless something dramatic happens to the economy.

Scott Meyer

January 26, 2009

Grains started out the day on a high note with soybeans trading up as much as 32 cents and corn as much as 12 cents higher. Soybeans saw a higher start with strong export inspections of 37.4 million bushels, higher crude oil and a stronger Dow Jones. As we approached the close buying enthusiasm began to fade as crude oil finished lower, the Dow Jones pulled back, and an updated weather forecast added moisture into the picture for Argentina. Corn continued to show more strength today even as soybeans began to fade, which was likely held up because corn is in pollination in South America and the likelihood that more damage has been done to yields already. Export inspections for corn were on the high side of 27.4 million bushels, though U.S. exports are currently 40% behind last years total inspections. For the day though corn closed up only 3 1/4 cents with soybeans closing unchanged. The market continues to focus on weather conditions in South America as the driving factor.

Chris Spurlock