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Tuesday, August 17, 2010

Crop conditions have clearly been deteriorating over the past 3 weeks nationwide in Corn. G/E ratings were down 2% on Monday night and thoughts of smaller crops have pushed corn prices near highs for the year on the Chicago Board of Trade. Illinois was down 1% and now sits at 63% vs 62% at this time last year. Iowa is down to 68% vs 77% last year, Nebraska 83 vs 77 ly, MN 90 vs 74 last year. Corn finished up 7 cents today with Dec 2010 futures at $4.30. Funds are estimated long 350,000 contracts of corn. The Pro Farmer crop tour is going on this week with results published at the end of the week. So far, estimates and conditions are closely reflecting the USDA crop ratings of Monday night.

Soybean ratings have leveled off this week, with the USDA projecting 66% national G/E rating vs last weeks 66% and in line with last year at 66%. Illinois is at 64 vs 60 ly, Iowa 69 vs 77 ly, MN 88 vs 67 ly, and Indiana 59 vs 60 ly. Soybean exports continue to impress, as does the new crop basis levels for Sep - Jan 2011. Bottom line, there is huge demand for our soybeans throughout the world during these 5 months!

Wheat has largely calmed down after losing nearly $2 off it's blow-off top earlier this month. The Russian wheat crop implications will take months to sort out but many believe our wheat crop along with higher futures prices will stem the shortfall very quickly, there are a lot of acres throughout the world that can grow wheat if the price is right, acres that aren't necessarily being used for much of anything right now.

Enjoy the cooler weather.

Scott Meyer

Monday August 9th, 2010

Corn ended lower in a see-saw session, as the market tracked volatile wheat prices. There was little fresh news for the corn market to digest, as weather for the crop remains mostly benign. Weather forecasts are showing less extreme heat. The market swung between gains and losses, and ended lower as the wheat market stumbled into the close. The market is currently awaiting Thursday's supply and demand report from Uncle Sam. Weekly crop progress report shows corn at 71% good to excellent, 97% silking, 52% dough, and 14% dented.

Soybeans ended mixed, with nearby contracts retreating on a combination of spillover weakness from wheat, the unwinding of old/new crop spreads and farmer selling. The weakness in the nearby contracts show farmers are taking advantage of rallies to clean out remaining old crop stocks. Deferred month futures contracts representing crops to be harvested in autumn backpedaled from early session highs, but ended higher on a steady dose of export demand from China, and ongoing concerns about crops moving through their critical growth stage. However, favorable near term Midwest crop weather managed to take some edge off prices.

Tuesday August 3, 2010

Good afternoon bloggers. Today corn finished down UNCH to -3 cents. Fall corn closed UNCH @ $4.04. Beans were up UNCH to +9 cents. Fall beans closed +8 cents @ $10.18. Wheat closed down -14 cents at $7.10. After last night's performance, we were unsure how the market was going to open today. Corn seemed to jump all over the board for most the day and unfortunately closed down. Beans were on positive ground for most of the day and wheat closed down. Thankfully wheat's poor performance didn't pull corn or beans down too much today.

The market appears to be driven by Black Sea area drought scares in Russia. This bullish news seemed to encourage speculators to pour more than $10 billion into corn, beans, and wheat. This is why the market has flourished in recent weeks. However fund players seem to be standing our their largest combined net long position since the first half of 2008. Fund buyers are noticing that chart patterns are looking increasingly tired. Some analysts say this is because the rally we have witness is based completely on fear, emotion, and momentum.

USDA crop report came out today and has corn pegged at 71% good/excellent condition. Beans are at 66% good/excellent condition. Weather in the Midwest seems to be good overall. There are some dry areas and wet areas, but overall producers' crop are looking good. Our Canadian brethren recently went through a harsh string of storms which brought hail and strong winds. This wiped out crops in parts of central Manitoba.

Construction in Morris is going well. The scale has been taken apart. Concrete has been ripped up around the scale and office area. Crews are working to pour more concrete on the west side of the elevator and the scale house has been gutted. Our dump shed has also been demolished and a new one will stand in it's place.

Stay classy Illinois,
Nathaniel Dubravec

Wednesday July 28, 2010

MORRIS RIVER TERMINAL IS WILL BE CLOSED FOR GRAIN DELIVERIES BEGINNING AUGUST 2, 2010. REPAIRS AND IMPROVEMENTS ARE SCHEDULED TO LAST THE DURATION OF AUGUST.

Hello bloggers! Today corn, beans, and wheat posted impressive gains on the day

Fall corn +14 cents @ $3.91
Fall beans +12 cents @ $9.78
Wheat +20 cents @ $6.47

Corn closed the day UP +10 to +14 cents. Corn and all commodities were up on the day due to foreign weather concerns, Chinese purchases, and technical buying. Russia, Australia, Europe, and other regions of the world are still working with a drought. Fears of declining world stocks of grain definitely helped boost the market today. Russian agricultural analysts said the drought may nearly halve grain exports by Russia to 12 million tons in the 2010/11 crop year started on July 1 from 22 million tons in 2009/10.

Not only is Russia and other countries having troubles, this is coupled with growing Chinese demand. China purchased another 120K tons of beans from the US this morning and is suspected that the USDA underestimated the amount bought from Uncle Sam. China is raising more livestock and has a rapidly growing population. Their demand for grain has drastically increased and this demand is expected to be long term. Thought these are all major reasons for the markets to be up today, analysts suspect technical buying has been the main catalyst for stronger corn and bean values today.

Stay classy Illinois,
Nathaniel Dubravec

Tuesday, July 27th, 2010

Corn and soybeans looked to stage a classic dead-cat-bounce today with corn up 4 and beans up 6 cents in the overnight trading but couldn't hold their strength in the day session. Corn closed down 1 cent with new crop beans down 1/2 cent in a day of consolidation. Fundamentally traders are playing tug-of-war with potential record US Corn and Soybeans against devastated Russian crops and below average China crops. Corn is rated at 72% G/E and the crop index is 106 vs last year's 104.5 which resulted in a record yield. Currently this is the best rated corn crop since the big one of 2004.

Corn G/E ratings
State 2009 2010
IA 80 70
NE 78 85
SD 73 76
ND 71 88
MO 59 50
KS 74 72
IL 62 65
IN 63 62
OH 72 61
MI 52 79
WI 55 79

US 70 72

Old crop corn damage has all but shut off the export system with an estimated 500 barges or 27.5 mbu of damage barges sitting on the river in New Orleans waiting for better new crop corn to blend with. The Mississippi River is also at a high enough levels after last weeks rains in IA, WI, and Northern IL to shut down 5 locks to barge traffic. It will be import for water levels to recede heading into harvest so elevators can empty out the grain already sold to the market to make room for the new crop.

Scott Meyer

Monday July 26th, 2010

The absence of any significant weather threat to U.S. Midwest crops based on weather forecasts through mid August pressured corn futures prices Monday. Nearby September corn settled 7 1/4 cents lower at $3.64, and December corn ended 6 1/2 cents lower at $3.78 a bushel. The lack of a weather concern forced market participants to reduce risk exposure, as current weather forecasts support good crop production potential. Corn futures had previously rallied on outlooks for hot, dry weather and excessive rains in other parts of the U.S. crop belt to potentially undermine crop yield potential. However, extended weather forecasts do not pose a threat to production potential, enticing traders that previously bet on weather producing bullish price action to cover some previously bought positions. USDA weekly crop progress report showed corn at 72% good to excellent, down 1% from last week.

Wednesday July 21, 2010

***Morris River Terminal will be closed August for grain delivery due to updating the facility and new scale.***

Good afternoon bloggers! Today the market up and firm on the close.

Nearby corn +6 cents $3.80
Fall corn +6 cents $3.93

Nearby beans +3 cents $10.15
Fall beans +5 cents $9.78

Nearby wheat +11 cents $5.88

Today wheat led the charge and corn and beans followed suit. Technical buying seemed to be the 'name of the game' today and trade attempted to make up for the slip in the market the past few days. Corn and beans tried a few times to break the 5-6 cent range, but were both held to modest gains due to a very favorable weather outlook for the Corn Belt. There was a rumor circulating about the market that the Chinese purchased another 2-3 cargoes of US beans. There has been no confirmation as of yet on the purchase. The Gulf is bidding steady on beans at +95 cents over the August contract. Gulf corn is also steady at +35 cents over the July contract. Morris river corn basis has firmed a few cents as well and cash corn is $3.52.

Argentina is the number 2 corn supplier in the world following the USA. Argentina trimmed its bean planting estimates by 3%. Brazil seemed to get the memo and increased their bean estimates by 3%. Argentina also is on the list of top world wheat producers. Argentina farmers have produced less wheat than usual of the last 2 years due to the economy and weather conditions. Farmers continue to have issues in regards to Argentina wheat harvest. The USDA has US wheat production pegged at12 mil. tonnes for the 2010/11 forecast.

The Morris Terminal has been busy lately. We were taking wheat a few weeks ago and were able to complete a wheat barge. Beans and corn have been the usual as of late. Over the past few weeks, damaged grain has slowly been creeping up and we are working our very best to help producers out. Many elevators (including our river competition) have rejected loads greater than 5% damage. If you have any questions in regards to handling grain, discount schedules, or merchandising please do not hesitate to call. We will do our best to accommodate you

Stay classy Illinois,
Nathaniel Dubravec

Tuesday July 20th, 2010

Corn was under pressure from the open and traded lower all day in light volume closing down 7 cents. Funds sold an estimated 8000 contracts today and have sold an est. 18,000 contracts this week. Weather forecasts are maintaining no ridge of hot dry for the next 2 weeks. Large amounts of moisture have been reported in S Iowa, N Missouri and southern half of Illinois over the last 48 hrs. Poor ethanol margins, poor quality, and large producer selling since July 1st have all weighed on corn basis especially the Illinois River system. Currently at Morris there is 33 cents of carry built in from nearby to Dec 1st!

Soybeans made their daily low early on and bounced back modestly to close 3 cents higher. Funds were actually net buyers as the USDA announced another 115,000 MT of new crop beans sold to China. Soybean basis has remained firm with exports continuing to be loaded out and old crop stocks being fairly tight. We are getting to that time of year when end users will be counting down the days until new crop and trying to guess when they can break the basis and premium they are paying for old crop.

Scott Meyer

Friday July 16, 2010

Corn closed firm on Friday on concerns about some forecasts for hotter and drier weather in the United States in late July and August kept away aggressive selling and lifted corn to a firm close. The world is enduring the hottest year on record, according to a U.S. national weather analysis, causing droughts worldwide and a concern for U.S. farmers counting on another bumper year.

Soybean futures ended mostly lower Friday, as the market consolidated in choppy trade following the week's sharp run-up in prices. The market staged a modest correction from Thursday's 2% gains, with traders reducing risk exposure heading into the weekend.

Wednesday July 14, 2010

Good afternoon bloggers! Today's heat index of 93 degrees tells me it's summer. Not only was the temperature a high for the area, the markets also finished up on the day. Corn, beans, and wheat were all up. Corn was up 6-9 cents. Beans were up 2-7 cents. Wheat was up 2-10 cents.

Nearby corn +9 cents @ $3.84
Fall corn +9 cents @ $3.96

Nearby beans +2 @ $9.97
Fall beans up +7 @ $9.62

Wheat +10 @ $5.59

Fund buying, weak US dollar, and lack of producer movement supported the market today. Technical buying was 'egged on' by a weak US dollar for most of the trading session. The market saw a nice rally last week, but not enough to shake producer bushels loose. It appears that there is still quite a bit of grain in producers' hands and they are waiting to see how far the rally can take them. There was also some talk this morning of China showing interest purchasing more US corn. Last year, China had a difficult time with crops. This contributed to over 1 million tons of corn from the US to China which was the largest in 15 years.

I think another reason for corn, beans, and wheat to find the green today was based on fears of weather. Europe, Ukraine, and regions of Russia are going through a tough time right with hot and dry weather. Forecasts for European wheat is down, Russia is going through a drought, and Canada is receiving too much rain. Though the Midwest has received a lot of rain in pockets across the region, the weather outlook is looking good for crops in the coming weeks. Rain is expected this evening and tomorrow. The weekend is looking clear and we shouldn't see rain until the middle of next week.

The Gulf is bidding +40 to +44 cents for US #2 corn. US #1 soybeans are getting bought at +92 to +98.

Stay classy Illinois,
Nathaniel Dubravec

Tuesday July 13th, 2010

The corn market today suffered from a better than expected crop condition rating of 73% G/E last evening when many traders thought the number would come in around 69-70%. Corn finished the day down 4.5 cents on the CBOT with cash corn on the Illinois river down 6-7 cents with a weaker basis. Barge freight has jumped about 80 pts all the way up to and over 400% with increased demand to move out the old crop ahead of good looking new crop. Corn ratings for this week are the highest since the record crop of 2004 with only Iowa lower than last year's record production. Corn pollination seems to be progressing nicely throughout the Midwest with temps staying in the 85-95 range and no 100+ readings in the corn belt. There is scattered talk of dry conditions popping up in the Eastern corn belt and that will be closely monitored as forecasts call for the highest temps of the year next week.

Soybean ratings were down another 1% and sit at 65% G/E providing support to new crop beans as they were up 3.5 cents and basis continues to be very strong on old and new crop. Not surprising, the rain plagued states of Iowa and Missouri have the worst rated beans at 69% and 44% respectively.

Wheat led the way higher today as serious concerns arise over drought and extreme heat in the former Soviet Union. We have seen reports that this year's drought is surpassed by only 5 out of the last 100 years! Locally, wheat harvest has almost finished with poor results on both yield and test weight.

Scott Meyer

Monday July 12th, 2010

Corn ended lower Monday as benign weather forecasts ease concerns about the U.S. crop. The market was lower throughout the session, and likely needs a weather scare to extend its recent rally. But forecasts call for average temperatures and adequate rainfall over the next few days. The crop is entering its crucial pollination phase in many areas, which goes a long way to determining a crop's yield. Technically, after the December contract failed to break through its May high on Friday, the market's upward momentum seems to be waning. One said that the 200-day moving average at $4.02 1/2 will be tough to pierce unless we start to have some serious problems with the crop. Crop progress report shows corn at 73% good to excellent, traders were expecting a slight decrease.

Soybeans ended mixed on Monday as old-crop contracts gained for an eighth straight session on tight supplies and deferred months fell due to weather speculation and some light profit-taking. You still have tight stocks, which is giving us the stronger up-front bean market, but at the same time harvest is not far away.

USDA Update: 07/09/10

The USDA report on corn this morning turned out to be relatively uneventful as the end effect was to reduce ending stocks for this year by 125 mbu with next year ending stocks down 200 mbu. These were despite a bullish June 30 Stocks and acreage report where acres were 1.4 million below trade estimates and June 1 grain stocks were 300 mbu below expectations. Corn production for this year is estimated at 13.245 billion bushels using a 163.5 bpa yield estimate. The only major change on demand for the 2010 crop year was a 50 mbu reduction in exports to 1.95 billion, equal to the current year. Feed usage for the 2009 crop year was increased 175 while use for ethanol saw a surprising reduction of 50 mbu. Early calls as of 8:00 seems to be 3 - 10 lower for the corn market.

The soybean report didn't really didn't do much as carryout levels were largely left unchanged with production up 35 mbu for 2010 to account for the increased acres reported June 30 with an increase in both crush and exports to leave expected Sept. 1 2011 carryout at 360 mbu. World soybean numbers don't seem to have a significant impact at this point. The soybean market is expected to be a follower today, early calls are 10 - 20 lower.

If we trade higher it’ll be because of weather concerns and outside markets, not today's report. Most commodities traded and closed already over 100 day moving averages and that could stimulate more short covering by trend following funds as they’re modestly short corn and beans. If they want to push a long we’ll end up higher today.

Phil

Wednesday July 7th, 2010

Corn closed higher on Wednesday on fresh fund buying, and a decline in U.S. condition ratings boosted corn as did lingering support from last week's bullish USDA acreage and stocks reports. September corn closed up 10-1/4 cents at $3.78-1/4 per bushel. Funds bought an estimated 12,000 contracts. Talk China bought a cargo each of old and new-crop U.S. corn supportive. Higher crude oil also lent support.

Analyst are also expecting that the USDA is not likely to change its U.S. corn yield estimate in Friday's crop report despite a strong start to the 2010 growing season, grain analysts said on Wednesday. USDA is already forecasting the national average corn yield for this year to come in at 163.5 bushels per acre, just below the record 164.7 bpa achieved in 2009.

Chris Spurlock

Tuesday July 6th, 2010

Crop conditions out today with expected declines in both Corn and Soybeans. The national corn crop rating was down 2% from 73 to 71 good/excellent while soybeans lost 1% from 67-66. Interestingly both crops are rated exactly the same as last year at this time. It looks like those of us in Northern Illinois have been dealt a better hand this year. Wheat harvest has gradually made it's way up to our area but with SRW planting acres down 60% from last year and arguably down much more than that in our area it is hard to get a handle on how fast or slow acres are coming out.

Corn started the day up 6-7 cents on bullish outside markets, a new crop bean sale to China and concerns over European wheat in France and Russia but slowly traded lower throughout the day and finished down 4-5 cents. Corn weather seems to be all over the board with western corn belt generally too wet (Des Moines IA having 200% of avg precip from May 1 - July 4), Delta way too dry (Pine Bluff AR having 52% of avg precip from May -July), and Eastern Corn belt just about right (Champaign IL having 125% of avg from May-July). The absence of extreme heat in any of the long term forecasts should provide a long window for most corn acres to pollinate regardless of their moisture situation.

Soybeans were identical to corn today in that they started 10 cents higher and slowly eroded down to close down 6 cents. Soybean ratings at 66% G/E should provide support to prices as many western belt areas have had a horrible time getting beans planted and southern Delta regions are hanging on by a thread waiting for moisture.

Please continue to monitor any old crop corn in the bin as quality issues can pop up at any time.

Scott Meyer

Note: **All facilities will be closed on Monday, July 5, 2010 in observance of Independence Day.
*Corn Products in Chicago will be open at 5 AM Tuesday, July 6, 2010.
*Elburn Coop in Morris will be open for corn, soybeans and wheat on Tuesday, July 6, 2010.
*Elburn Coop in Ottawa will be open for corn on Tuesday, July 6, 2010.


In today’s trading, corn futures were down while soybean and wheat futures were generally higher. September corn finished down ¾ for the day and up 23 for the week. Bullishness from Wednesday’s acreage report that rallied corn prices the last two days couldn’t carry into Friday’s pre-holiday trade. August soybeans closed up 7 ½ today and up 3 ½ for the week. New crop Nov beans were up a ¼ today but, down 6 for the week. September Chicago wheat futures were 3 ¼ higher today and up 32 for the week. Wheat fundamentals are little changed but, fund buying is dictating that market. Export sales out yesterday were generally as expected but, yet disappointing. Corn sales failed to reach the million ton mark for the first time in several weeks and new sales to China were absent in this week’s report. China was an active buyer of both old and new crop soybeans. New sales of soybean oil to China were announced yesterday by the USDA’s daily reporting system. In outside markets, stocks finished a dismal week with the Dow and S&P 500 down again today. The Dow and S&P 500 indices were down every day this week. Crude oil futures were down $0.81 per barrel.

National average on highway diesel fuel prices were 0.5 cents lower in this week’s report. Crude oil prices declined today but, finished in the lower 70’s per barrel which probably won’t provide much direction for fuel prices. Crude stocks declined slightly this week while distillate and gasoline stocks were up.

Have a great weekend!
Mike Etienne

Wednesday June 30, 2010

Factoid of the day: In 1778 Gen. George Washington marked July 4 with a double ration or rum for his soldiers and an artillery salute.

Good afternoon bloggers! Today was a great day for the market. Immediately after opening corn shot up to +30 cents and floated around that most of the day. Nearby corn closed +29 cents at $3.63. Fall corn closed +29 cents at $3.74. Though corn was able to jump 30 cents and hold it, soybeans were unable to hold on to its early bounce into positive ground. Nearby beans hit $9.54 early in the day, but closed down half a penny at $9.31. Fall beans didn't perform any better and closed at $9.02 down -7 cents. Nearby wheat was up +23 cents and closed at $4.80.

Today's USDA report took everyone by surprise. I think the only people that tell you otherwise are telling the yarn of a century. The bullish report today was exactly what we needed to see after a 7 straight negative trading sessions and after hitting an 8-month low. The knee jerk reaction was very friendly and showed that the market desperately needed corn. Soybean stocks(571mil. bu.) were 21 million bushels lower than last report (592mil. bu.)and is the smallest since 2004. Though soybeans stocks were down, soybean acreage was up 600K acres. This could explain why new crop beans were down for a good portion of the day, but nearby beans slowly bled the cents it gained early.

Corn had both bullish stock and acreage numbers. Corn was down 303 million bushels since the last report and was down 1.4 million acres since the last report as well. This is one of the reasons corn was expected to open, stay, and close at +20 to 30 cents. Hopefully the upward momentum will carry over into tonight and tomorrow for corn and the other commodities. It would be nice to see beans perform well tomorrow, but only time will tell.

I hope you all have a fun and safe Fourth of July weekend!

Don't tread on me,
Nathaniel Dubravec

Wednesday June 30, 2010

Good morning! The USDA report is bullish and looking good. Corn acreage is amazingly lower than what was originally expected. Corn acres were expected to be around 89.3 million acres. USDA reported the acres at 87.9 million acres. Though corn acres were down, bean acres were over 500K higher than expected. Corn acres were down and bean acres were up.

Corn and bean stocks were very bullish. Reports show that we have less corn and beans than expected. Corn stocks were expected to be at 4.6 billion bushels. USDA report has that pegged at 4.3 billion bushels. Beans were expected to be at 592 million bushels. USDA report has that pegged at 571 million bushels. Very bullish. Both corn and beans are called higher this morning.

ACRES
USDA Wednesday Expected
Corn 87.872 Million 89.302
Beans 78.868 78.292


US STOCKS
USDA Wednesday Expected
Corn 4.310 Billion 4.613
Beans 0.571 0.592
Wheat 0.973 0.938

Today's numbers definitely took everyone by surprise. It's going to be very interesting how the market responds to these bullish figures. Have a great day!

Nathaniel Dubravec

Tuesday June 29, 2010

Good afternoon friends! Today the name of the game was a stronger US dollar and weak outside markets. This proved to be an uphill battle for commodities. Corn, beans, and wheat all posted loses in anticipation for Wednesday's USDA report. Corn closed -7 to -9 today. Fall corn finished the day at $3.44. Beans closed -6 to -9 as well. Fall beans are at $9.12. Beans gave an honest effort around mid-day today, but eventually any upward momentum eventually dissipated. 'Turnaround Tuesday' did not hold up to its expectations. Hopefully we can get a 'Worthwhile Wednesday' following the report and regain some of what was lost today.

Fresh news before the market opened this morning was that China purchased 230K tons of beans for 2010/11. China's quarantine authority has allowed use for the first cargo of USA GMO corn in 4 years for feed production. Cargill also sold 55K tons of corn to South Korea. Weather forecasts continue to look great overall for the Corn Belt. This has allowed for a sub-par weather premium and a few cents to erode from the market. Crop conditions are still looking good overall for Illinois even with the amount of rain we have been getting. Some producers are dealing with water and some wind damage from last week's storms that raced across most of Illinois.

Expectations for tomorrow's USDA report have this years corn plantings at 89.2 million acres. This figure is half a million acres great from the March USDA Planting Intentions Report (PIR). Bean plantings are estimated to be around 78.1 million acres. That is nearly 100K acres more since the March USDA PIR.

The Gulf is bidding firmer today for June and July corn to try and shake some bushels loose. Producer movement and sell off has been slow because of the market deteriorating the past week. The Illinois River water levels have dropped a few feet since last week and has not halted loading this week. It appears that the next few days of dry sunny weather will only encourage water levels to drop even further to a somewhat normal level.

Stay classy Illinois,
Nathaniel Dubravec

Monday June 28th, 2010

Corn futures fell for the sixth straight day Monday, ending at its lowest price since October as favorable weather forecasts fuel talk of a record crop. Nearby July corn ended down 6 3/4 cents to $3.33 3/4 bushel. The market broke below the previous bear-market low of $3.35, maintaining the bearish technical momentum that has driven the market in its current slump. The key bearish factor, were weather forecasts calling for dry weather across the U.S. corn belt this week. That is exactly what farmers need at the end of a June that dumped excessive rains in many areas. Along with the dry weather, moderate temperatures are expected, which eases any concern traders might have about a heat wave stressing the crop during its pollination period, which typically kicks into gear in July. Pollination is a crucial period during the crop's reproductive cycle that establishes its yield potential.

After a fast start to the growing season, more traders are now talking about yields exceeding last year's record of 164.7 bushels per acre. The U.S.D.A. recently projected a national yield of 163.5 bushels per acre. The current perception in Chicago is that all is well, and that a 170-bushel crop is all but in the bin.

Note: Corn Products in Chicago will be open at 5 AM MONDAY June 28, 2010.
Elburn Coop in Morris will be open for corn and soybeans on Monday, June 28, 2010.
Elburn Coop in Ottawa will be open for corn on Monday, June 28, 2010.

Export sales for corn were again strong this week surpassing 1 million metric tons for the 3rd week in a row. Soybeans were as expected. Quarterly Hogs and Pigs Report today showed a 4% decrease in inventory compared to last year at this time. Lower than expected. Some have said this supports the theory that USDA’s feed use number for corn may have to be adjusted down. Corn and wheat were pressured today on a lack of threatening weather on the horizon. Ironically beans were supported by excessively wet conditions in parts of the Midwest and dry conditions in the south. 5 million acres of soybeans are estimated to still be unplanted. Rumors of old crop soybean sales to China were also supportive.

In today’s trading, corn and wheat futures were down while soybean futures traded slightly higher. July corn finished a lackluster week down 4 ¼ today and down 20 ½ for the week. July soybeans closed up 1 ½ today but, down 4 for the week. July Chicago wheat futures were 6 ¾ lower on the day to finish the week down 5 1/2 . Outside markets for equities and crude oil were slightly higher today. Crude oil was up $2 per barrel earlier but, leveled off at the end.

National average on highway diesel fuel prices rose 3.3 cents in this week’s report ending a 5 week string of lower results. Crude oil prices jumped today and have been staying in the mid to upper 70’s in recent weeks which could cause fuel prices to inch up. Crude and distillate stocks rose slightly this week while gasoline stocks fell slightly similar to last week.

Have a great weekend!
Mike Etienne

Good afternoon bloggers! Today corn and soybeans were on the defensive and were in the red all day. Soybeans closed -7 to -12 cents today and corn closed -5 to -6 cents. Nearby corn closed at $3.46 and fall corn finished at $3.65. Nearby soybeans finished at $9.58 and fall soybeans closed at $9.23.

Corn continued its slide today as weather and anticipation of a bumper crop. Soybeans didn't perform any better today, but wheat was able to post a gentleman's gain of +1 cent. Canadian weather concerns appear to be the contributing reason for US soft red winter wheat/ Canadian wheat to close in the green. Wheat continues to be the focus in the Canadian commodity realm.

Reports of soybean (and corn) futures posting losses are due to an overall favorable Midwestern weather outlook. I guess 'overall' is the key word in those reports. My understanding is that producers have received too much rain. This rain caused some worries today with river traffic on certain stretches of the Mississippi River. High water halted some traffic, but is not expected to pose much of an issue. The Mississippi River is crucial for the movement of grain. 55-65% of all US corn, soybeans, and wheat exports are shipped out of the Gulf of Mexico.

Corn condition is down 3% from last week. Soybean condition is down 4% from last week. Well over the 5 year average (63%) at 69%.

Stay classy Illinois,
Nathaniel Dubravec

Tuesday June 22, 2010

Turn-around-Tuesday failed to materialize today. The corn Market finished down 3.5 cents as an improved drier and cooler extended weather forecast looks ideal for the end of June and beginning of July for a crop that currently has lots of moisture and above normal GDU's. I have been hearing many producers that are targeting harvest to occur a full month ahead of last year,with some hinting at corn coming out in September. Monday afternoon's crop condition report showed corn G/E down 2 pts as Illinois lost 3, Iowa 1, Nebraska 3 due to extremely wet conditions. It looks like Nebraska, Iowa, Illinois, and Indiana will all break records for June precipitation at month's end. The first boat bought in 4 years has been approved by China government agencies and the unloading process started today!

Soybeans, old crop held it's own today and finished up 2 cents with new crop down 3. Soybean ratings took a big hit last week as nationwide we lost 4 points of G/E fields with Illinois dn 6, Iowa dn 6, North Dakota dn 5, and Minnesota dn 4 due to very wet weather. It should also be noted that 7% of soybeans still need to be planted.

Corn basis continues to move in opposite of futures with declines in the last 2 days on the CBOT leading to tighter corn basis. Soybean basis is all over the board with processors paying big premiums over the river markets.

Scott Meyer

Note: Corn Products in Chicago will be closed MONDAY June 21, 2010. They will re-open at 5AM , June 22, 2010.

Elburn Coop in Morris will be open for corn and soybeans on Monday, June 21, 2010.
Elburn Coop in Ottawa will be open for corn on Monday, June 21, 2010.

Export sales were generally uneventful yesterday for corn and soybeans. Corn did top the 1 million ton mark which was supportive to corn. Previously reported sale of 120,000 metric tons of corn to China showed up in the report as expected. Soybean sales were negative but, this was caused by a decrease in sales to Japan that offset the large sale last week that was questioned. Additional sales of soybean oil to China and new crop soybeans to unknown destinations (likely China) were reported today. Cattle on Feed report out today showed a 1% increase in total on cattle on feed and a 23% increase in placements from last year. Fed Cattle marketings were the lowest for the month of May since the report started in 1996. The report was about as the market expected. US EPA let it be known that they would not have a decision on increased ethanol blends is gasoline until this fall. They are waiting on test results data from the Department of Energy before making a determination. This data is expected to out around the end of September. Soybean basis continues to be strong nearby. We continue to offer free DP until October 15, 2010 for soybeans in storage or delivered to Elburn Coop facilities.

A strong storm moved through our area this afternoon with high winds and heavy rain lasting about a half hour. Have heard reports of hail and power outage but, haven’t heard any reports of significant damage thus far.

In today’s trading, corn and soybean futures were up at the close while wheat was down slightly. July corn finished up 3 ¼ for the day and up 11 ½ for the week. July soybeans closed up 9 today and up 14 for the week. July Chicago wheat futures finished 1 lower on the day but, up 21 for the week. Outside markets for equities and crude oil were slightly higher today with little new news to move them.

National average on highway diesel fuel prices were lower for the fifth week in a row dropping 1.8 cents in the latest report. Crude oil prices have recovered to the mid 70’s per barrel in recent weeks which could cause fuel prices to inch up or at least stop falling. Crude and distillate stocks rose slightly this week while gasoline stocks fell slightly. Stocks of all three products are historically high but, gasoline is moving closer to its average seasonal range where crude and diesel are not.

Have a great weekend!
Mike Etienne

Wednesday June 16, 2010

Good afternoon bloggers! Today the market found itself on positive ground again. Futures rallied today propelled by more China talk and wet weather concerns for Canada and USA. Corn was up +1-2 cents. Fall corn was up +2 cents. Soybeans were up +5-9 cents. Fall soybeans were up +9 cents. Cash corn is $3.46. Cash soybeans are $9.67.

The market the past few days has been performing well. Planting delays and issues in Canada, weak USA currency, China looking for beans, and biofuel blend talks are all playing a role. The most talk that I have heard in regards to Canadian crops has been in the news lately. Planting delays and problems with crops (especially oats) has been turning heads. The USA dollar was weaker during mid-day trading and is currently up .18%. I heard talk that earlier this week China was interested in South American soybeans due to a much better bid vs. USA Gulf market/ Pacific North West market (P.N.W.). Today there was more talk of a biofuel blend bill. Currently, reports are estimating that Congress does not have enough votes for a biofuel blend increase. May 2010 was the warmest on record.

There have been wet weather problems in wheat growing areas near Omaha, NE. Regions in northeastern China have mostly been hot and dry. There was an absence of fresh news from the outside markets today.

New Orleans bids have been firm this week. The Gulf of Mexico is bidding +45 for July corn and +63 cents for July soybeans. Though these bids are firm, the PNW has been drawing grain away from the Gulf. Earlier today the PNW was bidding +80 cents for July corn. The Illinois River appears to have crested and did not give us any trouble with loading barges today. This is the highest I remember the river being since the snow melt months ago.

Stay classy Illinois,
Nathaniel Dubravec

Tuesday, June 15th 2010

With corn futures unchanged in a day of consolidating after 3 pretty impressive days up and soybeans also uneventful at -2 cents, a trader has to get his excitement from OATS! Oat futures on the CBOT are up 80 cents in 5 days! That is a 30% increase due to very very wet conditions across the Canadian prairie. Will this have an effect on corn and soybean futures, well if today was any indication that would be a very loud NO. What this does show is that with July and Aug weather just around the corner, anything I truly believe anything can happen. With uncertain volatility in the market, it is a good idea to talk to a grain merchandiser and ask them how you can limit your down-side risk on new crop corn and beans while leaving some room for the upside.

Warmer drier weather is forecast for the next 2 weeks and almost all of the corn belt would love to see this come true.

Monday June 14th, 2010

Corn futures rallied Monday, climbing near 2-week highs on fresh export demand, Chinese weather concerns and borrowed strength from other markets. The confirmation of new sales of U.S. corn to China provided a fundamental boost for prices, with concerns that dry conditions in east-central China could raise the prospects for additional China purchases attracting buyers. USDA released their weekly Crop Progress report tonight, corn improved 1% to 77% good to excellent. Outside markets continue to be supportive with crude oil up a $1/bbl today and the dollar down again today. Concerns are starting to develop that low quality wheat this year will compete with corn and cause it to remain at lower levels in order to stay competitive.

Soybean futures climbed today, rallying to 1-month intraday highs on support from a sinking U.S. dollar, and advances in broader markets. Outside financial markets provided a spark to attract buyers, as optimistic outlooks for the global economy made some investors less risk sensitive. The July future rose to its highest point since May 14, with technical buying accelerating advances once the contract eclipsed resistance at the June 4 high. Meanwhile, underlying strength was noted from concerns about seeding problems for Canadian canola.

Note: Corn Products in Chicago will be closed MONDAY AND TUESDAY, June 14-15, 2010. They will re-open at 5AM Wednesday, June 16, 2010.

Elburn Coop in Morris will be open for corn and soybeans on Monday, June 14, 2010.
Elburn Coop in Ottawa will be open for corn on Monday, June 14, 2010.

Commodity news was generally supportive today. News that China’s main grain buyer (COFCO) bought another 3 cargoes of US corn gave corn traders some ammunition out of the gate. Word from the Canadian Wheat Board that between 8.5 to 12.5 million acres of all crops might not get planted there supported wheat futures late and spread into corn and soybean markets also. Traders are still digesting Thursday’s USDA supply and demand report where corn used for ethanol was increased significantly which lowered carryout in the current and next crop year. I have seen speculation that part of the reason for the increased corn use estimate is the US government will promote renewable fuels more heavily in the aftermath of the oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico. ADM formally requested US EPA to allow 12% ethanol gasoline blends this week. Good timing on their part. Weather conditions are generally good but, there are some areas that have seen too much rain recently. This has limited soybean planting in those areas and hampered growth of crops already in the ground. Export sales were generally good yesterday (and much improved from last week) for corn and soybeans. However no new corn sales to China appeared and an unusually large (for this time of year) amount of 2009/10 soybean sales to Japan has been questioned. Weather forecasts favorable for crop development and potential for a very large corn crop provide resistance for corn prices. Large amounts of imported soybeans at Chinese ports has caused China to cancel several cargoes of soybeans from South America. Though US stocks of old crop soybeans are tight, lack of Chinese buying interest in the world market limits any rally of soybean prices. Locally soybean basis continues to be strong nearby (and inverted). We continue to offer free DP until October 15, 2010 for soybeans in storage or delivered to Elburn Coop facilities.

In today’s trading, grain and soybean futures were all positive at the close. July corn finished up 6 ¼ for the day and up 9 ½ for the week. July soybeans closed up 11 ¼ and up 11 ½ for the week. July Chicago wheat futures finished 7 ½ higher today and up 5 for the week. Outside markets for equities and crude oil were generally weaker most of the day with disappointing retail sales being reported this morning. Equities did recover to post a gain late.

National average on highway diesel fuel prices were lower for the fourth week in a row dropping 3.4 cents in the latest report. Crude oil prices stayed in a narrow range recently and this should limit fuel prices for the time being. Crude stocks dropped slightly this week while gasoline stocks were steady and distillate (diesel) stocks rose slightly. Stocks of all three products are historically high.

Have a great weekend!
Mike Etienne

USDA Update: 06/10/10

USDA crop report released at 7:30 am today, market calls are 10 - 15 higher for corn and soybeans.

The big news in today's report is on increased corn demand for ethanol production. USDA increased the 2009/10 crop ethanol usage to 4.55 bbu. up from 4.4 bbu. Total corn demand is forecast up 135 incorporating a slight reduction in corn feed usage. For the 2010/11 crop year USDA increased the ethanol portion of corn demand by 100 mbu to 4.7 bbu.

World corn numbers were uneventful so the net impact of the reports today is a reduced U.S. corn carryout estimate to 1.6 bbu for this year and 1.573 bbu for next year which is a 245 mbu reduction from the May estimate. USDA did not change production estimates for 2010 corn or soybeans this month.

The soybean report didn't give a lot to trade on as soybean crush for meal/oil was increased 5 mbu but no other changes were noted, ending stocks are now estimated at 185 mbu. The world soybean numbers didn't change much either with a .6 million ton reduction in the Chinese soybean crop the only adjustment of any significance.

In other news the weekly export sales report showed great improvement over last week for corn and soybeans with corn sales at 40.1 and 5.6 for old and new crop respectively and soybeans at 15.5 and 4.8 mbu. Both commodities weekly sales figures were above expectations and should lend to the higher grain market calls.

Phil Farrell

Wednesday June 9, 2010

Fact of the day: In 2009, corn was valued at $42 billion and soybeans were valued at $32 billion.

Good evening bloggers! Today the board positively responded with a +1-2 cent bounce in corn and a mighty 1-12 cent rally in soybeans. Weaker dollar and stronger outside markets seemed to play a role in today's rally.

Producers have not been completely convinced by the board's weak performance as of late. Though the basis has been firm for both corn and soybeans, producers have been reluctant to let go of any corn or soybeans left in their possession. Hopefully today's momentum will carryover into tonight and tomorrow and bring prices up. The river basis has been firming due to the lack of farmer movement, but the ethanol processors' basis has been deteriorating as well. We are looking forward to a USDA report coming out tomorrow (Thursday). We are not expecting too much of a change in corn and soybean stocks, but you should keep an eye on the import/export numbers. Crop conditions have not changed except for a 3% increase in 'excellent condition'.

Nearby corn was up +1 cent and closed at $3.38. Nearby soybeans were up +12 cents and closed at $9.43. July futures rose 2 cents on the CBOT. This is the second straight gain. Prior to today, a rise in supplies caused for a 19% price decline. Earlier this week when the market rallied, the market fell the following day. Let's hope and pray that the CBOT will continue to rally throughout the night and into tomorrow. The weather continues to look great for Illinois and the rest of the corn belt. We had a scare that the Illinois River was going to rise quite a bit, but thankfully the rain missed us. We will be able to continue to load barges without worrying about the river rising for a while now. Have a good evening.

Stay classy Illinois,
Nathaniel Dubravec

Tuesday June 8th, 2010

Corn up 1.5, soybeans dn 4.0 today as the markets seem to find some support at least in the corn market. The weather continues to dominate trade talk which has been bearish. Are there areas where soybeans can not be finished planting and corn is suffering from too much wet weather, yes. Are there way more areas that are benefiting from above normal temps, early planting, and adequate moisture, again answer is yes. The national corn crop is rated 76% G/E with Minnesota at a record 92%, Nebraska 85% but eastern corn belt states lagging from too much moisture. The 76% national G/E is the 3rd best in the last 23 years.

Soybeans couldn't hold their ground today as the crop ratings of 75% G/E is best rated crop for this time in the last 24 years! New crop November 2010 futures dropped below $9.00 for first time since October of last year. USDA monthly crop report out Thursday morning and extended weather forecast should point direction of futures nearby.

3 tenths of rain in the gauge here at the Sycamore office so far today with more in the works for tonight.

Scott Meyer

Monday June 7th, 2010

Corn continued on its downward slide today, closing down over 4 cents. In the past 6 trading days corn has lost 10%, the largest drop since January as the prospects of favorable weather conditions, rising dollar and falling crude pushed it lower. The USDA weekly crop progress report showed good to excellent rating of 76%, unchanged from last week, analyst were looking for a 1% to 3% improvement this week.

Soybeans ended the session fairly flat, as prices were unable to launch an aggressive push in either direction amid lack of news as well. The USDA reported their first weekly crop conditions for soybeans tonight at 75% good to excellent, analyst were predicting between 65% to 75%.

Heavy thunderstorms focus on key areas of the Corn Belt through Wednesday, further boosting topsoil moisture for sufficiently moist vegetative corn. A notably warmer pattern begins later this week and affects the Corn Belt, but dryness does not coincide with warmth as thunderstorms redevelop during the weekend.

Chris Spurlock

Note: Corn Products in Chicago will be closed MONDAY AND TUESDAY, June 7-8, 2010. They will re-open at 5AM Wednesday, June 9, 2010.

Elburn Coop in Morris will be open for corn and soybeans on Monday, June 7, 2010.
Elburn Coop in Ottawa will be open for corn on Monday, June 7, 2010.

Friday turned out to be an avalanche of bad news for markets across the board. Export sales for grains and soybeans were disappointing this week. Corn was a marketing year low and no new sales to China appeared. Markets outside of grains were also down hard. Employment data showed a good number of jobs created but, almost all were attributed to the US Census and are temporary. The Euro hit a 4 year low against the USDollar and Hungary joined the list of European countries with potential debt problems. It would be hard to name a country that doesn’t have debt problems at this point. Equity and crude oil markets dropped further after grain markets closed setting the stage for a weak opening Sunday night absent new developments. On top of all of that, corn belt weather looks ideal for crop development the next week to 10 days. There are some rumblings of a hotter, drier ridge settling in later but, it is not the most likely scenario at this point.

In today’s trading, grain and soybean futures were all down hard at the close. July corn finished down 9 ½ for the day leaving it down 19 cents for week (29 cents over two weeks). July soybeans closed down 20 today but, only down 3 for the week. July Chicago wheat futures finished 6 lower today and down 22 for the week. The bright spot for producers (if there is one in this market) is strong soybean basis. We are posted +.095 SN at Morris tonight. We are currently offering free DP until October 15, 2010 for soybeans in storage or delivered to Elburn Coop facilities.

National average on highway diesel fuel prices dropped for the third week in a row dropping 4.1 cents the latest report. Crude oil prices slumped along with other markets today with all of the negative economic news. This should limit fuel prices for the time being. Crude and gasoline stocks dropped slightly this week while distillate (diesel) stocks rose slightly. Stocks of all three products are historically high. Still watch for any developing weather disturbance in the Gulf of Mexico to inject fear of supply disruption into the market.

Have a great weekend!
Mike Etienne

Tuesday June 1, 2010

Carry over selling from last week along with almost perfect weather has put pressure on both corn and soybean futures. Corn down 5 cents, soybeans dn 5 cents, and wheat dn 7 cents today. Outside markets were also on the defensive today with crude dn $1.95 and the DOW off 112 pts.

Crop conditions released this afternoon by the USDA concur with local excellent looking crop as Corn good/excellent up 5 pts to 76% vs 70% ly. Illinois was actually down 1 pt to 76% G/E but every other state did improve significantly.

Soybean crop planted report showed the US at 74% this week vs 53% last week and 63% last year. The average pace for this week is 75%.

The nearby basis levels have been firming for the past week with soybeans at the river tonight +.035 and corn river -.09 with Corn Products leading at +.02. Producer selling of soybeans has been very very light over the past couple of weeks. I would like to point out to those of you with old crop soybeans that the cash market is paying a premium for old vs new example Morris nearby bid of 9.355 and fall delivery 8.655, don't miss out on the premium as some day down the road those will come together. June corn contracts will keep the pipeline full for this first week but without a board rally, I would suspect corn basis to stay steady or improve slightly. With the limited selling and ever changing basis levels, it is always good to put grain offers in with your local merchandiser, you never know what might happen throughout the day.

Scott Meyer

Note: Elburn Coop – Morris, Elburn Coop – Ottawa and Corn Products in Chicago will be closed Monday, May 31, 2010 in observance of the Memorial Day holiday.

Corn Products in Chicago will re-open at 5AM Tuesday, June 1, 2010.
Elburn Coop in Morris will be open for corn and soybeans on Tuesday, June 1, 2010.
Elburn Coop in Ottawa will be open for corn on Tuesday, June 1, 2010.

After a rally on Thursday, grain and soybean futures slumped Friday. Prices were crippled by a combination of fundamental and outside market factors. Favorable weather forecasts for crop development in most areas pressured prices but, news that the Fitch rating agency had downgraded Spain’s credit rating broke the market to the downside. Corn and soybeans fell along with stocks and crude oil. There were no new corn sales to China announced this week and in fact some new crop sales were canceled. The domestic price of corn in China is still favorable for importing corn there so expect to continue to hear rumblings of corn exports to China.

In today’s trading, grain and soybean futures were all down hard at the close. July corn finished down 14 ¼ for the day and down 10 for the week. July soybeans closed down 14 today and down 3 for the week. July Chicago wheat futures finished 10 lower today and down 14 for the week.

National average on highway diesel fuel prices dropped for the second week in a row down 8.2 cents in this weeks report. After slumping early in the week, crude oil prices recovered mid week. Though they did give up some that gain today. Stocks of distillates and crude oil remain historically high but, look for any weather scare in the gulf to rally prices quickly. Gulf of Mexico waters are the warmest they have been at this time of year since 2004. Warm waters in the gulf are fertile grounds for spawning hurricanes.

Have a great weekend!
Mike Etienne

Wednesday May 26, 2010

Fact of the day: In Illinois there are 233 people per square mile (Thanks to Chicago).

Today was a productive day and the market was able to make back most of what was lost yesterday. Nearby corn was up 7 cents and closed at $3.71. Nearby beans finished up 7 cents at $9.38.

Across the board corn finished the day 7-8 cents in the green. December 2010 closed at $3.90 and July 2011 corn closed at $4.19. Higher futures can be contributed to the supportive outside markets today. Crude oil futures rose 4%, Gold topped $1,200, and the US dollar was up as well. Seems like everything keeps boiling down to the Chinese. The outside markets today were friendly with talk again of China possibly buying more corn. It appears that whenever we hear friendly news, the market has responded positively. Soybeans have rose from a 10 week low on the strengthening demand from China. China is expected to finish the year (October 1) importing around 46 million tons of soybean supplies. That number is expected to increase to 49 million tons from all suppliers next year.

River basis has been firming for the past few weeks. May to July corn basis levels have all strengthened to better than -10 cents. May to July beans are bidding 2-4 cents over the board. The Morris Terminal is busy unloading trucks and loading barges. Stop in the office sometime and be sure to take a look at new floral additions. We have been seeing some scattered rains throughout Illinois. None of the rain has played a major role on the river and barges have still be able to navigate the river without issues.

Another interesting bit of info I found today is that scientists have identified 4 new strains of wheat-killing fungus. These new strains '...could endanger the global wheat supply.' Now I have no idea how big of a threat this actually is. These may be the same scientists in the 1970's that predicted we were all going to die by 2000 if women continued to use hairspray. Regardless, I thought it was interesting.

Stay classy Illinois,
Nathaniel Dubravec

Tuesday May 25th, 2010

Good weather and rapidly improving crop conditions coupled with failing world financial markets contributed to corn being down 6.75 cents, Soybeans down 10, and wheat down 7 today. Crude Oil was down more than $2/barrel today and the Dow was off over 200 pts. At the time of this writing (3:40), crude is down only $.85 while the Dow has bounced back to only down 20 pts! I wanted to shed a little light on how commodities, US dollar, and stock index has performed so far in the month of May.

April 30 Today %Change

US $ Index 81.99 87.25 6.4%
Gold 1168 1191 2.0%
Cattle 94.22 90.11 -4.3%
Hogs 86.32 81.05 -6.2%
Corn 3.75 3.65 -2.7%
Soybeans 9.99 9.30 -6.9%
Wheat 5.03 4.63 -8.0%
Crude Oil 88.36 67.87 -23.2%
S&P 500 1183 1045 -11.7%

As you can see it has been a great month for the US dollar as all of the European financial problems have at least lent some credibility to our currency. Gold has also done well in great times of uncertainty as a safe heave if you will for money. The commodity sector other than Gold has had a rough go of it and further strength of the US Dollar could lead to lower prices down the road with all other fundamentals remaining equal.

Scott Meyer

Note: Corn Products in Chicago will close at midnight Friday, May 21, 2010 and remain closed on Monday. They will re-open 5AM Tuesday, May 25, 2010.

Elburn Coop in Morris will be open for corn and soybeans on Monday , May 24, 2010
Elburn Coop in Ottawa will be open for corn on Monday, May 24, 2010.


In today’s trading, grain and soybean futures were mixed. Corn rebounded along with equity markets after a tumultuous week. USDA announced more export corn sales to China this morning. Export sales continue to be good but, actual shipments are lagging. Remains to be seen if we can increase the shipment pace enough this summer to make USDA’s goal for exports. Soybeans were weaker on fund selling along with lower crude oil. Soybeans were also pressured by a dryer, warmer weather forecast which is friendly for fieldwork and planting the remainder of soybeans. Rain showers continue to pop up today throughout Illinois and east. July corn finished up 7 cents to put it up 6 for the week. July soybeans closed down 3 today and down 12 ½ for the week. It should be noted that May soybean basis at our Morris river terminal has improved 14 cents since last Friday. Posted tonight at -.07 SN. July Chicago wheat futures finished 2 ¼ higher for the day to eek out a ½ cent gain for the week.

National average on highway diesel fuel prices dropped 3.3 cents in this weeks report ending a 7 week up streak. As Zach alluded to last night crude has continued to crash since this report so would expect this average to continue to drop. Stocks of distillates and crude oil remain historically high.

Have a great weekend!
Mike Etienne

Thursday May 20th, 2010

Regarding the two causes, or over excused causes, a strong dollar and continued worry of the economic toppling of Greece and its domino affect on other European nations. The current effect of this information or lack of information, has the energy market continuing its downward tread. I am finding it difficult to actually understand what kind of economic crisis Greece is in other than mixed reports and little first hand matter of fact information being provided. The latest report has their government lowering wages and hiking taxes; (Sounds familiar, where have I heard that before?) which has in sighted 25,000 citizens to take the streets in protest. Of course this behavior is killing what tourism was still occurring, which accounts for 20+ percent of the Greece GDP; tourism also accounts for one in every five jobs in Greece.

So what does this have to do with energy prices, and how does it effect our US economy?
Well for starters Europe is our largest export market, our largest trading partner; With 20% of exports going directly to Western Europe. The US economy is not directly tied to Greece itself other than small loans and tourism, but fear the over borrowing throughout the Euro world is too far gone or over lent is the lingering problem. As the European markets tighten and possibly stagnate, this will have a ripple effect on our economy,which will most likely carry a heavy impact on fuel use, domestic and foreign.(further reduction in manufacturing and air travel) It seems to be the big picture investors are looking at as they exit the crude market for higher ground.
Crude is down 22% from its April 6th high of $86.84, settling today at $68.01. Today was the end of the June contract, tomorrow starts a new month with about a $2.00 carry to July, $69.59, down a $1.20 in overnight trade.

How about the products that matters to you:

Gasoline today followed the complex with losses of about a nickel on the futures. Gas showed draws of 300.000 bpd, with four week demand up 2.1% from this time last year. You should be paying $2.84 or so for gas in this market if your not hunt around its out there. Hint, hint.

Diesel also traded lower once again, down about four cents on the futures. Diesel saw draws this week of a million bpd, which is wildly off from expectation of 1.3 million bpd builds. Also interesting to see was the large jump in diesel demand, up 12.3% from this time last year. (four week average)

This weeks DOE report would appear at first glance to favor bullish turnabout, but Cushing, Oklahoma reported once again record inventory, causing large concern over what we are judging the market on. So while things are improving from last year,which wasn't exactly banner, inventories are still too high for investors. I look for continued volatility as we enter a new contract month of trading, we are now aways from $65 crude, but it wont take long to get back there with $2.50 wackes. If you don't need to fill your tank, don't, the prices are getting better in the short term.
Well if your still reading, sorry so winded this evening, I didn't find a ton of conversation on my cold calls today.
Good evening and thanks for reading. Feel free to respond, by clicking "comments".

Zach Winter

Wednesday May 19, 2010

Fact of the day: The official state tree is the White Oak. The official state insect is the Monarch Butterfly.

Good afternoon bloggers. Today the markets were on the defense and posted modest loses on the day. Nearby corn closed down -1 cent at $3.59. Nearby beans finished down half a cent at $9.38. Nearby wheat was up +2 cents at $4.69.

Fall corn was down 1 penny at $3.77. Chinese purchases of USA corn were finally confirmed. This is the first confirmation of China's purchases since talk started weeks ago. I was hoping this would have boosted corn prices today, but that didn't seem to be the case. Warm weather may be weighing in on the price of corn. Futures fell to their lowest level in 2 weeks as forecasts for warm weather increase expectations of a bumper crop this year. 67% of this years corn crop is rated as good to excellent. Corn exports continue to be good.

Fall beans fell -8 cents at $9.06. Export sales are at 9.7 mbu. and new crop export sales are at 7.8 mbu. China still is buying our beans over South America. There is talk of Chinese buyers canceling South American soybeans and replacing them with Uncle Sam soybeans. Today's talk is that weak closings are blamed on good USA bean planting and growing weather. This weekend's heat is needed in areas and we should definitely see some growth with a few consecutive warm days.

The Illinois River has come down since earlier this week and is now forecasted at 9'6". Morris, IL area is expected to get some rain this Friday. It shouldn't pose a threat to the river rising too much, but we'll keep an eye on it. IL river basis is firm. June and July corn basis is currently at -8.5.


Stay classy Illinois,
Nathaniel Dubravec

Tuesday May 18th, 2010

A very lackluster turn-around-Tuesday as corn finished up 3.75, soybeans dn 1.5, and wheat dn 1.25. Markets were all higher on the overnight trade and early on in the day session today but didn't manage to close that well. Crude oil also saw a similar trading day as it was up $2.40 early on but ended dn $.50 on the day.

While the grain markets are continuing to find demand at these lower prices, the prospects of warmer-drier weather has all the bulls on the sideline waiting to see if this early planted crop can pop up and start growing with authority. Many areas are looking forward to some drying to allow for corn re-planting and soybean planting to start. Unless the current extended forecasts change to cooler/wetter, it looks difficult to run up prices until we get into a more critical late June/July corn pollination period.

Scott Meyer

Monday May 17th, 2010

Corn futures stumbled Monday, settling at a 3-week low, continuing a retracement of prior gains on pressure from a stronger U.S. dollar and bearish near term crop weather. The theme was consistent across most commodity markets in reaction to lingering European economic fears. In the absence of fresh supportive news, outside markets served as the focal point for price direction, with beneficial weather for spring planting and crop development adding to lower tone. USDA pegged corn planting at 87% complete with conditions rated at 67% good to excellent, the market was looking for around 90% complete with conditions near 85% complete.

Soybeans followed along with corn as lack of news and negative outside markets sent things lower. Soybean plantings came in at 38% tonight, the market was expecting soybeans to be 45% complete tonight.

Chris Spurlock

Friday May 14, 2010

Fact of the day: The 'Tully Monster' is the official state fossil. It was a marine mammal that lived 280-340 million years ago.

Hello bloggers! Today was a trying day for corn and beans. Nearby corn finished down -10 cents at $3.56. Soybeans were down -10 cents at $9.50. A stronger US dollar, great weather outlook, and weak crude oil was to blame for the fall in prices. As Scott pointed out earlier, it's ironic how China purchased 484,000 tonnes of corn from USA (the most in a decade) and the price of commodities still declined. Not only is China purchasing corn from the USA, but there is talk they will soon become the no. 1 importer of American DDG's. Other than Chinese news, there appears to be not much fresh news today.

New Orleans' corn bid is up this week at +50 cents and soybeans are bidding at +53 cents. The Illinois River appears to have crested which will allow for continued barge loading in Morris and Ottawa. As of right now, the oil slick in the Gulf of Mexico has not been affecting barge movement in/out of the USA. This weeks rains will be followed by a weekend of 70 degree days. This weekend's weather will be a sight to sore eyes for the producers that have received more rain than desirable. Looks like Grundy County area will be seeing its next rainfall Monday, but will remain dry for the next week. The Morris Terminal has seen 2.70 inches of rain this month. Our average rainfall is 3.95 inches for May.

Some international news that I found interesting is the Japanese government is ordering '...the destruction of 73,653 pigs' to prevent the spread of foot-in-mouth outbreak. Though the outbreak currently has not made any noticeable changes meat demand/consumption, it is expected to slow if Japan's culling efforts fail.

Stay classy and have a great weekend,
Nathaniel Dubravec

Thursday May 13th, 2010

Well it's still ugly for those looking for an energy market up tic. Most of us will be happy with cheaper fuel, but many investors were looking to energy for an income opportunity and it doesn't look as though the bounce is coming anytime soon. Crude closed down another $1.25 at $74.40. The same story has once again lead to the same results, (funny how that works) dollar gains on continued worries over the state of the global economy, with commodities and equities lower. Overall crude is down $2.40 on the week, with diesel and gas both up about .02 cents; Mainly do to sizable jump Monday.
This weeks DOE report did little to increase the hopes of demand, with reports of 1.9 million bpd builds on crude and 1.4 million bpd builds on diesel. Supply levels are at all time highs, Cushing, OK reported its crude reserves are at all time highs since reporting began in 2004. The only glimmer of hope came in the way of 2.8 million bpd draw on gasoline.
I believe if the economy was showing stronger signs of global improvement, the 970,000 barrels of oil substance spuing into gulf would have an impact on the market, but no impact has been seen. BP reported today that the clean up efforts tabhas hit $450 million, with over 530 vessels participating in clean up efforts. An end may be in site, with hopes of a "top hat"oil containment system will be in place within a few days. The latest effort is focused on a slightly smaller tube being inserted into the existing pipe, funneling oil to the top of the surface, where it can be trapped and contained.
The short term outlook remains bearish with inventory high and demand low. Some news of increased air demand did surface today calling for a possible up tic in jet fuel demand. Air travel authorities are budgeting 20% fuel price jumps for the up coming travel season, that could be an indicator of future price ranges, but expect to pay about the same for fuel this weekend.
Good evening, stay dry.
Zach Winter

Wednesday May 12, 2010

Fact of the day: The official snack food of Illinois is popcorn. The Illinois General Assembly designated it as the official state snack in 2003.

Good afternoon bloggers! Last night and this morning we saw a significant rally due to China purchasing 10 cargoes of corn (6 cargoes from USA). There is speculation China's interest in our corn is because of a poor Chinese corn harvest and rising inflation. Though corn and beans rallied early, corn closed +1 cent at $3.78 and beans closed down half a penny at $9.65

Rumors from earlier this week proved to be true with China buying corn from USA. Corn sales activity for 2009/2010 were a marketing year high of 72.9mbu. This is the highest since January 2008. December 2010 corn finished the day at $3.92. Corn planting is going well and the rains which fell this week have definitely helped a lot of producers. Though the rains have helped producers around Illinois, some producers in northwest Indiana are 'waterlogged'. Producer movement has ramped up due to finished or wet fields. Some areas have fieldwork on hold and more of a focus has shifted to moving grain. Though some areas are more wet than favored, just be thankful we don't live in Wyoming/Colorado/Dakotas. Producers up there have a rare May snowstorm on their hands!

New crop beans were down on the day. Old crop beans posted unchanged to a penny gain. The mixed closing prices may be due to a lingering effect from the USDA report. The report said we may have a larger than ending stockpile of beans that analysts previously thought. USA nationwide bean emergence is just shy of 10%. Another 10.4mbu. of sales was posted for this week. Good to have a few solid weeks back to back. This is the second highest total since February (11.4mbu. sold). New Orleans bean values have decreased ~2% since last week. Bean exports have slowly declined as expected.

Stay classy Illinois,
Nathaniel Dubravec

Tuesday May 11th, 2010

CBOT Today:
Corn up 6.5 cents
Beans up 5.0 cents
Wheat up 0.5 cents

USDA Report Card day today:

Corn production for the 2009 crop was lowered 25 mbu on poor yields from N & S Dakota with national yield lowered to 164.7 vs 164.9 in April. The corn carryout for 09/10 was lowered from 1.899 bbu to 1.738 as a result of lower production, higher food, ethanol, and export usage. Using the projected 163.5 yield for next year and 88.8 million planted acres, carryout for 10/11 is projected at 1.818. Corn was 5 cents lower overnight on higher dollar and week stock and crude markets but did manage to finish up 6.5 cents for the day or 11.5 cents higher than overnight ended. More moisture forecast over the midwest for next 2 days and then more seasonable temps along with drier weather forecast for the weekend and first part of next week.

If corn had a slightly bullish tone from the USDA then soybeans had a very bearish report as carryout 09/10 was left unchanged at 190 mbu where some were looking for 170 range numbers. The real negative news is next year with projected carryout using 42.9 bu/ac yield and 78.1 million acres at 365 million bushels. The world bean supply and demand doesn't look any better with record production in South America but it never ceases to amaze how demand eventually pulls carryout numbers down from projections on soybeans. If you have any questions on USDA reports or daily comments in general, please feel free to give your local Elburn Coop office a call.

Thanks,

Scott Meyer

Monday May 10th, 2010

Corn started out the session up a nickel, but wasn't able to hold on, as the dollar pulled back its heavy losses and wheat took a nose dive as the frost/freeze over the weekend failed to due much damage to the crop. Tomorrow morning the USDA will release their monthly crop production report with estimates for both old crop and new crop carry-out. Analyst are projecting old crop carry-out between 1.72 billion bushels and 2.0 billion bushels with the average guess at 1.86 billion bushels, while new crop carryout estimates range between 1.5 and 2.4 billion bushels, with the consensus at 1.9 billion bushels. The weekly crop progress report shows corn at planted 81%, the market was looking for 75% to 85%.

Soybeans were able to finish out the day slightly better then both corn and wheat closing a whopping penny higher. Estimates for carry-out tomorrow on old crop soybeans are 180 million bushels and new crop at 340 million bushels. The weekly crop progress report shows soybeans at planted 30%, the market was looking for 35%.

Weather forecast calls for cool and wet weather in much of the central U.S. grain belt, this week. Delta grain-growing areas will have generally favorable weather for planting and crop development during the next five days. Rainfall of more than 3 inches is in store for Iowa, Missouri and Illinois, with moderate amounts elsewhere in the Midwest. Freezing weekend temperatures developed in some sections of the Corn Belt.

Chris Spurlock

Thursday, May 6th, 2010

Wow. Can you say "sell-off"! This week has produced the largest three day energy skid of the year; I haven't seen anything this ugly since the last White Sox's game. Today's catch phrase was "panic sell-off", as the DOW slid to February lows and energy continued its three day collapse. Crude closed today at $77.11, diesel was down .07 plus cents and gas wasn't far behind at .06 cents. Last time we chatted crude was on the up tic, at $85.17, that is an $8 loss in a week.
It appears worries over Greece and other European nations debt crisis, once again pushed investors out of riskier oil and equities, into saver waters such as the dollar. Hopes for big energy recovery are diminishing as most are realizing that inventories far out weight demand and promises of great future demand are coming up empty. Today's sell off is being blamed on different reasons, most still based in speculation, with little concrete evidence. It is said that the Dow experienced some sort of "computer glitch", I have heard that one before, or the more likely 10,500 point sell stop orders are to blame for such high trade volume; Either way, it was ugly. Tomorrow will be interesting with most experts pointing to late day rebounds as the possible new direction, "buying opportunity" is the new catch phrase.
The short term outlook for energy is still weak with inventories high, demand down, and prospects of future demand looking grim. The best thing the energy market has going for it, is the three day beating it has taken, it could mark it ripe for the picking. Tomorrow is a new day, lets see what happens.
Good evening,
Zach Winter

Wednesday May 5, 2010

Good afternoon bloggers! Today was a very interesting day to say the least. Corn opened down this morning and stayed down for the majority of the day. Fortunately, a nice corn rally finished the day off. Corn finished +4 cents @ $3.73. Beans opened down and closed down -9 cents @ $9.78.

The AG markets put on a mixed performance throughout the day after initially opening in the red. Corn was in the red for most of the day until a late rally. Rumors are still flying around in regards to China purchasing more corn. We have heard China bought 8-10 cargoes of corn. Regardless of if China did or did not buy corn, it may have boosted corn prices. Domestic corn prices in China have soared since 2009 and it may be that they are looking at the USA to supply them. USDA pegs corn emergence at 19%.

Livestock prices have been doing very well as of late. Hog prices have been climbing higher this spring and last week's cash price is the highest since 2008. S&P 500 and the Dow Jones Industrial Avg. were both down. USA dollar is up today and crude oil is down $3.11/barrel.

Soybeans are ~15% planted vs. 5-year average of 8%. Producers have been going hard and are ahead of planting schedule averages. Movement and sales have seemed to slow the past few weeks. South American crop availability is probably to blame for this. New Orleans' soybean values are down 14% from a year ago. South American values are down 31%. The New Orleans soybean basis is at +28 cents over FH May. As of right now the oil slick in the Gulf of Mexico has not been problematic in the Delta area in regards to freight.

Have a great one,
Nathaniel Dubravec

Tuesday May 4th, 2010

Corn dn 2 cents, beans unchanged, and wheat up 10 today as all 3 markets were much lower this morning and closed near their high today. The outside markets were much lower today with crude dn $3.45 at the time of this writing and the dow industrial down 248 pts! The Greece financial problem has again reared it's ugly head up as well as Spain and other European countries. The US dollar is benefiting from all of this negativity out of Europe and the stronger dollar is usually always negative to commodities in the investment world. Planting progress in Northern Illinois is going off without a hitch and as is the case in much of the corn belt. It appears planting will be done in record time with almost no current drought areas on the national map, sounds like a big harvest in the making.

Got an e-mail today on the oil rig explosion in the Gulf of Mexico and wanted share a few thoughts. I would first state that the 11 missing men are still missing and authorities have said they do not expect them to be found. The oil rig was contracted by BP for $500,000/day and with helicopters, support vessels, and other services it is estimated at $1 million/day! The rig is a state of art floating rig that is held in place not by anchors but jets under the water that use constant GPS signals to keep the rig in one place. The rig cost $350 million to build in 2001 and would cost more than double that to rebuild today.

Scott Meyer

Monday May 3rd, 2010

Grain commodities taking a hit today as concerns worsen about the oil spill that is potentially threatening to shut down export operations in the gulf. Planting continues on a record pace as well, with the USDA announcing corn planting at 68% nationwide, Illinois at 87% and Iowa at 84%. The strength of the dollar was the catalyst for the declines, with the absence of fresh news in the face of bearish underlying fundamentals keeping many buyers on the sidelines.

Weather is looking mostly dry and seasonable weather will affect the central U.S. into Thursday, followed by rain in northern/eastern corn and soybean areas Thursday and Friday. Notably, the Delta stays mostly dry over the next seven to 10 days as the best rain chances focus to the north.

Chris Spurlock

Note: Corn Products in Chicago will close at midnight Friday, April 30, 2010 and re-open 5AM Monday, May 3, 2010.

Elburn Coop in Morris will be open for corn and soybeans on Monday , May 3, 2010
Elburn Coop in Ottawa will be open for corn on Monday, May 3, 2010.

The market had several interesting developments this week to factor in. In the export market, rumors of China buying US Corn were confirmed on Wednesday by the USDA reporting a sale of 115,000 metric tons by private exporters. There are further rumors that more sales to China may be forthcoming. It remains to be seen how well phytosanitary hurdles can be cleared to actually get the corn into China. Marketers are also closely following developments with the uncapped oil well in the Gulf of Mexico that is spewing 1000’s of gallons of oil per day into the Gulf. The oil slick reached some coastal areas today and almost certainly will reach more by the end of the weekend. The oil slick also threatens to shut down vessel traffic into and out of the lower Mississippi River. Any lengthy shut down there could have significant effects on our local river values and basis. Locally corn planting is practically complete and some soybean planting has commenced. A wary eye is cast to some cooler than normal temperatures forecast in early May and rain this weekend is expected to cause some field work delays. Otherwise the weather looks to be very good. Most all nearby grain bids have now moved to basis July futures.

In today’s trading, grain futures were higher across the board. This in the face of outside markets that were generally lower. Corn found support from rumors of additional Chinese purchases. Thunderstorms across the Midwest delaying fieldwork were also supportive but, it must be noted that planting progress is well above the 5 year average for this time of year. July corn finished up 6 ¼ today and up 14 ¼ for the week. July soybeans closed up 3 today but, after a dismal start on Monday & Tuesday finished the week down 11. July Chicago wheat futures finished 7 ½ higher for the day and down 2 ½ for the week after a bad start similar to soybeans.

National average on highway diesel fuel prices rose only 0.4 cents in this weeks report but, continued a 5 week up streak. Though stocks of distillates and crude oil remain historically high, the national average price for diesel is about 80 cents higher than last year at this time.

Have a great weekend!
Mike Etienne

April 29th, 2010

What a month. It is Energy Thursday and the roller coaster continues. The Energy complex has seen a week of ups and downs, to land about flat for the week. The story has been the day to day saga over Greece and its finical hardship and the constant dichotomy of the state of our economy; it seems to change with the wind. One thing is for certain crude and product are on the rise again. Crude jumped about $2 today and diesel and gas are both up a few cents. Tomorrow is the last day of trade for both the June futures heating oil and RBOB contract, which could drive the numbers south as some profits are taken. The month of April added about .15 cents to the market.
There is still a lot of talk about China's demand causing mid summer spikes of $100 crude, but I think the lingering effects of our economic short fall should keep a lid on $100 crude. Reuters reported 2010 crude should average about 81.10, leaving a little room for a $90 run, which would most likely get gas and diesel up by about .25 or more mid summer. Also remember the largest holder of crude contracts in the world is still under the gun(Goldman Sachs) and position limits are still in the Washington think tank. Time will tell, but budget a little more for fuel in the coming months.
I am Zach Winter, out.

Wednesday April 28, 2010

Good afternoon bloggers! Today corn was up +9 cents @ $3.57. Soybeans were unchanged @ $9.83. Wheat was down -2 cents @ $4.96.

Today's news was dominated by China buying 150mmt of corn from USA. It is significant because it is the first time China has bought corn from the USA since 2006-2007 growing season. The positive news of China purchasing corn gave the market something to react positively on. Though China has bought corn from USA, it will be another thing to see if the Chinese government will allow the corn to be unloaded come delivery time.

Previous corn planting record of 37% in 2004. This year producers are on record pace at an astonishing 50%. South Africa will start harvesting a record crop in May. March USA soybean crush was up 1.2mbu at a record 156.1mbu. Mexico absorbed 3.3mbu of soybeans. South American soybeans are slowly making it into the pipeline. 11.3mbu. soybean sales (highest since February) is a figure that has some jumping to the 'South American pipeline' conclusion.

There is talk that corn acres are switching over to bean acres. New Orleans soybean basis is +45 May. Most bids from the processor market is firm and steady. The river markets are still very competitive and still dealing with expensive barge freight rates. The weather has been very favorable as of late and will continue into Friday. Illinois and most of the Midwest will be seeing rain this weekend and warmer temperatures in the 70's. No cold weather is expected for the next 10 days.

Stay classy Illinois,
Nathaniel Dubravec

Tuesday April 27th, 2010

Record planting progress, great weather, and a much lower stock market all contributed to corn and beans down 5 and 16 cents respectively. Crude oil has even gotten into the game today as it is down $2 a barrel. December 2010 corn futures finished at 3.69 and marks the lowest close since Sept 22, 2009. All market news seems to be concentrated on the weather and planting progress with both being extremely bearish.

US stock markets fell today as Greek and Portuguese debt was downgraded to basically JUNK by market analysts. The Euro fell to a 12 month low against the US Dollar so any of you wishing to take a European vacation for bargain US dollar prices should start looking into it. Goldman Sachs execs were on capital hill today and faced grilling on how they traded through the housing bubble and made billions off the collapse. Explanations must have been good enough for wall st. because on a day when the dow is down over 12o pts, Goldman stock rose over 1%.

Cash corn market basis levels are at great levels vs May 2010 futures contract as the pipeline tries to originate movement in the presence of record field activity.

Scott Meyer

Monday April 26th, 2010

Well I am sure it comes as no shock to anyone that the USDA weekly crop progress report shows planting at 50% this week vs. 19% last week, and 22% on the 5 year average. Around here most areas' are higher then that. Corn has little fundamental support as most expected the U.S.D.A to show planting progress between 45% and 50% in its crop progress report Monday afternoon. The record pace for this week is 52%. Weekend rains were considered good for the crop, and more rains in the forecast are not seen as a major problem for U.S. planting as a whole. Considering wheat's slide, corn "held its own." Funds sold an estimated 2,000 contracts Monday, but traders and analysts say that in general the funds have been supporting prices. One analyst noted there are a lot of investors who see the Ag commodities, primarily corn and soybeans, as undervalued relative to their alternative investments, such as crude and stocks that are at their 19 month highs.

Soybean futures ended modestly lower, unable to sustain early price strength on technically oriented selling pressure. Futures experienced two-sided trading action, with technical and seasonal buying giving way to profit taking pressure after fund buying was exhausted. Positive seasonal buying patterns and carryover technical buying led prices near four-month highs in early trade. However, without fresh supportive news, a record large South American harvest and record projected U.S. plantings futures had little support to sustain the advances. Concerns that heavy Midwest rains may stall corn seedings and possibly lead to additional soybean acres helped take some edge off prices as well.

Chris Spurlock

Wednesday April 21, 2010

Good afternoon bloggers! The past two days have helped the commodities get back on track. After Monday's debacle, corn and beans are close to what they were last week. Nearby corn was up another +4 cents @ $3.59. Soybeans were up +11cents at $9.95. July soybeans broke the $10 mark and finished the day at $10.06.

The corn market has been strong and stable the past few days. New Orleans' bids are strong at +47 cents. With producers planting corn in the fields and not moving much to the elevators, basis and futures has seen a rise. China appears to be buying some as well as North Africa countries. It's interesting how corn futures have been behaving as of late with planting going full bore. Japan also seems to be diversifying by moving 25% of their business from USA to S. America. Taiwan is moving 90% towards S. America. A lot of soybeans are getting exported to China. The bean (and corn) basis has been firming up this week as well. Soybeans are the highest they have been in 3 months. Both July and August beans are above $10 and hopefully will continue to creep up.

Weather is looking favorable across the entire Corn Belt. It looks as if it's going to remain dry for the next few days until a system moves in. Producers are getting have been getting a lot done with some finished or close to finishing. All of the midwest states are making great progress. Scattered thunderstorms over Argentina and Brazil are slowing down harvest. South Africa is having similar issues.

Stay classy Illinois,
Nathaniel Dubravec

Tuesday April 20th, 2010

Another day of outstanding weather and record planting progress! Corn, Soybeans and especially wheat turned up the volume on the turn-around-Tuesday dance today. Corn up 8, beans up 7, and wheat 19 higher. A little bit overdone yesterday on dragging corn down 16 and wheat down 23 along with rebounding crude oil (up 2$/barrel today) led to higher trade. Large rains are forecast over the entire corn belt starting Thursday and lasting into Monday. If rain gradually falls over those 3 days, things probably couldn't be better for the crop just planted. Lets look for this scenario and not one that has heavy downpours of rain in severe thunderstorms.

Soybeans have been the steady crop over the last 2 days, down 8 and up 7 respectively. Traders are watching record corn planting pace to see if bean acres will be lost and how planting progress will develope this week, yes beans are going in the ground nationwide.

Cattle prices have reached a 21 month high and that old high of Aug 2008 coincides with China hosting the 2008 summer Olympics and using a lot of beef! Hog prices are also way up over last year and both prices should lead to higher placements in the months to come.

Scott Meyer