All the commodity markets struggled today after yesterday's big move up. Corn appears to be suffering from 80 weather, adequate moisture, and pollination happening all at the same time. This is the coolest July in over 100 years and in 4 of the last 5 coolest July's since 1960, above trend line corn yields where achieved. Corn basis is steady to strong as the futures declines have limited new cash sales.
New crop soybeans were down today in sympathy with corn and overall good growing conditions. Crop conditions on Monday afternoon will be watched next week and weather forecast changes over the weekend will also give direction to the crops.
USDA cattle report released this afternoon showed June placements 92% of last year and a 13 year low and July 1 on feed were 95% of last year and a 10 year low. The 2009 calf crop is estimated to be 98.6% of last year and the smallest since 1950.
Scott Meyer
Friday, July 24, 2009
Thursday, July 23, 2009
Thursday Jully 23,2009
Corn futures jumped higher on word that the USDA eill resurvey acres in 7 US corn belt states. This raised speculation that farmers especially in Southern Ind and Southern Ill did not get all of the intended acres planted Some feel as much as
500.000 to 1 million acres did not get planted due to the wet spring.There also was some buying dueto the forecast that suggest over the next few weeks the NW corn belt may see limited rains. Temps will be cooler than normal With the sharp drop in corn prices have triggered interest in exports Soybeans seemed to follow corn higher on the day with very little news observed. The buyers on the day were the funds with about 4000 contracts of soybeans
Chuck Peterson
500.000 to 1 million acres did not get planted due to the wet spring.There also was some buying dueto the forecast that suggest over the next few weeks the NW corn belt may see limited rains. Temps will be cooler than normal With the sharp drop in corn prices have triggered interest in exports Soybeans seemed to follow corn higher on the day with very little news observed. The buyers on the day were the funds with about 4000 contracts of soybeans
Chuck Peterson
Thursday, July 23 2009
Corn surged today to reach the highest level in seven days on sharp short covering. The catalyst today was a surprise announcement from USDA that they would resurvey corn and sorghum acres ahead of the August 12 production estimate. The survey will focus on the eastern corn belt where planting delays were most prevalent. The announcement led to ideas of lower planted acres of corn to somewhat offset the surprise increase in the June planted acres report. This will be the 5th time where corn acres were changed since 1996 each of those adjustments led to a reduction in planted acres. Traders certainly expect this to be the case as well, the big question is how long will the rally continue and for that likely crop conditions will need to deteriorate. Today the corn market was also helped by stronger outside markets with the Dow closing over 9,000 for the first time since November 2008.
Soybeans followed corn higher today with the new crop November contract up $.24 despite thoughts that bean acres may gain due to the new USDA acreage survey. Old crop cash basis levels were weaker today on soybeans with some eastern belt processors taking down time and the export market backing off a dime or so. There seems to be plenty of beans moving to satisfy demand at this point in time but we still have two months before new crop supplies are available so it could still get interesting cash market wise. China failed to sell any soybeans at an auction of some of its state owned reserves as many of the auction prices were set well above world values.
Meanwhile, weekly export sales of 11.8 million bushels were well ahead of the 3 ½ million
needed weekly to achieve USDA estimates.
Congrats to regular reader Mark Buerhle for pitching a Perfect game for the White Sox today!!
Phil
Soybeans followed corn higher today with the new crop November contract up $.24 despite thoughts that bean acres may gain due to the new USDA acreage survey. Old crop cash basis levels were weaker today on soybeans with some eastern belt processors taking down time and the export market backing off a dime or so. There seems to be plenty of beans moving to satisfy demand at this point in time but we still have two months before new crop supplies are available so it could still get interesting cash market wise. China failed to sell any soybeans at an auction of some of its state owned reserves as many of the auction prices were set well above world values.
Meanwhile, weekly export sales of 11.8 million bushels were well ahead of the 3 ½ million
needed weekly to achieve USDA estimates.
Congrats to regular reader Mark Buerhle for pitching a Perfect game for the White Sox today!!
Phil
Wednesday, July 22, 2009
Wednesday July 22, 2009
Grains in Chicago closed on a mixed note. December Corn closed -2 3/4 at 3.19 1/4 and November Soybeans closed slightly higher +3 at 9.08. Continued good weather and lack of positive demand news left the market without much direction.
Since the close the USDA announced that they would reevaluate acres in the up and coming August Supply and Demand Report to be released 7:30 am August 12Th. This will likely spark some short covering or at least some stabilization to our markets.
Jeff Neisler
Since the close the USDA announced that they would reevaluate acres in the up and coming August Supply and Demand Report to be released 7:30 am August 12Th. This will likely spark some short covering or at least some stabilization to our markets.
Jeff Neisler
Tuesday, July 21, 2009
Tuesday July 21st, 2009
September and December corn contracts hit new lows today as weather forecasters put more moisture and more normal temperatures into the 2 week forecast. Weekly crop conditions released yesterday afternoon with corn maintaining it's 71% G/E score vs last year at 65%. Soybeans improved 1% to 67% G/E vs 61% last year. Those ratings seem to be trumping the below progress ratings
Corn silking 31% vs 54% avg
Soybean Blooming 44% vs 62% avg
Old crop corn and soybean basis has been on the defensive this week as cash grain has been flowing into the market and the loading capacity at the Gulf of New Orleans will be pushed for the next 3 weeks. It appears until the government changes the acres planted and harvested, which isn't going to happen soon, the market will continue to watch for early frost predictions with this late crop to support values.
Scott Meyer
Corn silking 31% vs 54% avg
Soybean Blooming 44% vs 62% avg
Old crop corn and soybean basis has been on the defensive this week as cash grain has been flowing into the market and the loading capacity at the Gulf of New Orleans will be pushed for the next 3 weeks. It appears until the government changes the acres planted and harvested, which isn't going to happen soon, the market will continue to watch for early frost predictions with this late crop to support values.
Scott Meyer
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