Thursday, August 13, 2009

Thursday, August 13, 2009

U.S. soybean futures fell 2 percent on Thursday on a bout of profit-taking and good weather in the United States that should ensure a record crop. Weather is bearish. There is some rain and cooler temperatures for next week and that's just what the bean crop needs. Markets have been on edge because the U.S. soybean and corn crops were planted late this year due to a cool, wet spring. Now, pollinating corn and pod-filling soybeans are soaking up warmer conditions across the Midwest, which is helping crops catch up on development. China, the world's largest soybean importer, was a noted buyer of U.S. soybeans and traders expect China to keep up a steady program of soy purchases from the United States because South American soybeans are more expensive.

Weather forecasts have warmer weather conditions that are improving crop development and then a cool off next week to normal, then below normal. That cooling process will be accompanied by scattered showers providing moisture for filling corn and beans.

~Chris Spurlock

Tuesday, August 11, 2009

tuesday August 11th, 2009

Crop ratings out yesterday afternoon showed corn unchanged at 68% Good/Excellent. Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, and Wisconsin are all below last year with Iowa, Ohio, Minnesota, Nebraska, Missouri, and Kansas all better. The 68% rating for this time of year is very good with some estimating a 160-165 bu/ac final yield with a normal August and September growing period.

Soybean ratings were down 1% to 66% G/E vs 63% last year. While the condition rating is very good, there is also a greater risk of an early frost affecting more of the late planted beans this year. Many of you have heard July being the coolest ever in Illinois but it should also be noted that it was also the coolest for Iowa, Indiana, and Ohio. July received 2nd place all time for cool temps in Missouri, Wisconsin, and Michigan.

USDA report out tomorrow morning with updated acreage survey.

Basis levels remain incredibly strong as buyers look for grain with a benign corn CBOT and small soybean supplies.

Scott Meyer