Corn futures were generally 2-3 higher today. Sep soybeans were 23 higher while Nov soybeans were 16 higher. Soybeans were supported early with news that China bought another 3-4 cargoes of new crop beans overnight. A new soybean sale to China was announced everyday this week. Sep soybeans were especially supported on fears that maturity of an already late crop could be further delayed by the return of cooler temperatures. Equity markets were supportive with the DOW up 155 points.
Pro Farmer completed their tour this week. They estimate US corn production at 12.807 billion bushels (160.1 avg yield)and US soybean production at 3.150 billion bushels (41.0 avg yield). This compares to USDA forecast of 12.761 billion bushels of corn and 3.199 billion bushels of soybeans.
US average diesel prices increased this week (week ending Aug 17) for the 4th week in a row. Average diesel prices are up 4% since the end of July but, still 37% below the same week last year. This corresponds to crude oil prices jumping 19% the last four weeks due mostly to hopes of world economic recovery.
Grain movement remains light in our area. Plenty of truck capacity is available when demand reappears.
Have a great weekend!
Mike Etienne
Friday, August 21, 2009
Thursday, August 20, 2009
Thursday, August 20, 2009
An extremely quiet session today with light farmer selling and traders debating US crop prospects. Ongoing Pro Farmer tour finding generally favorable conditions in Iowa and Minnesota. The crop tour is estimating some areas of the Iowa to be up as much as 45 bu/acre from last year while USDA forecasts statewide corn yields up 14bushels from last year in Iowa. Traders continue to assess the impact of late developing crops but since it is still 45 days from a normal first frost date in most of the corn belt the discussion isn't at the forefront of conversation yet. The most recent USDA crop condition report shows this crop as the second least developed in 25 years so this will continue to be a topic of discussion obviously. The market will also continue to debate the impact of the change by CFTC to impose smaller limits on index fund holdings of Ag commodities as mentioned yesterday this could lead to liquidation long futures positions (up to 22,000 corn and 11,000 of wheat) in the next two months.
The bean complex spent the bulk of the day trading around unchanged on light volume. Export sales were supportive for beans at 274,900MTs of old crop and 583,100MTs of new crop with meal sales at 110,800MTs of old crop and 45,500MTs of new crop. Oil sales saw net cancellations of 12,300MTs (S.Korea cancelled 9k and Mexico rolled 3.5k into new crop) of old crop and positive sales of 5,300MTs in the new crop position. The USDA also announced the sale of 165,000MTs of new crop beans to China on the dailies. However with a benign weather forecast and tepid outside markets there just wasn’t any get up and go to the bean complex today and prices soon settled into a two sided trade.
The markets in general seem to be stuck between a rock and hard place with little room to move. There just is little in the way of selling being seen right now due to the fact that the farmer is holding on to grain and the commodity funds are unwilling to add to shorts until the technical’s tell them to. The upside is limited by the nearly perfect growing conditions we are currently seeing as the rains over the past 48 hours as the market has perceived that the moisture situation has been taken care of. There is not much concern about hot weather either as that is something most would look forward to at this point. Still the crop is running behind but we have been well aware of that since planting. The bulls continue to hold on to the hope that we may have an early frost but until we see that on the maps, the market does not seem to want to bite.
Phil Farrell
The bean complex spent the bulk of the day trading around unchanged on light volume. Export sales were supportive for beans at 274,900MTs of old crop and 583,100MTs of new crop with meal sales at 110,800MTs of old crop and 45,500MTs of new crop. Oil sales saw net cancellations of 12,300MTs (S.Korea cancelled 9k and Mexico rolled 3.5k into new crop) of old crop and positive sales of 5,300MTs in the new crop position. The USDA also announced the sale of 165,000MTs of new crop beans to China on the dailies. However with a benign weather forecast and tepid outside markets there just wasn’t any get up and go to the bean complex today and prices soon settled into a two sided trade.
The markets in general seem to be stuck between a rock and hard place with little room to move. There just is little in the way of selling being seen right now due to the fact that the farmer is holding on to grain and the commodity funds are unwilling to add to shorts until the technical’s tell them to. The upside is limited by the nearly perfect growing conditions we are currently seeing as the rains over the past 48 hours as the market has perceived that the moisture situation has been taken care of. There is not much concern about hot weather either as that is something most would look forward to at this point. Still the crop is running behind but we have been well aware of that since planting. The bulls continue to hold on to the hope that we may have an early frost but until we see that on the maps, the market does not seem to want to bite.
Phil Farrell
Wednesday, August 19, 2009
Wednesday, August 19, 2009
The corn market put in a rally today closing $.05 higher led by a strong Crude Oil rally as diesel and gas usage were reported stronger than expected for the past week. The corn market did get some negative news today as the CFTC announced that they will withdraw position limit extensions to the two largest index funds and is basically giving them until October or early November to reduce part of their long futures positions, considering that the index funds hold 25% of the long open interest in corn this could lend to some liquidation down the road. Other news seems to be pretty scarce with the Pro Farmer crop tour reporting what is expected, crop potential in Illinois is below a year ago while potential in Iowa is better than a year ago.
The bean market was erratic today with values up $.07 at one point overnight, $.13 lower during the day and closing $.01 lower. There was another export sale reported to China today but that seems to be expected by the market at this point as they continue to get coverage well into the new year. Export sales are expected to be very strong on beans tomorrow as last weeks strong sales to China will be reported. In general we would expect to see export sales for new crop to continue strong for the near future with South American supplies at record small levels for this time of year.
I read an interesting comment on the Gartman report today: The top 1% of US income
earners pay 38.4% of the nations taxes. Top 5% pay 58.8% of the nations taxes. Top 10% pay 69.7% of the nations taxes. Top 25% paid 85.6% of the nations taxes. Top 50% paid 96.8% of the nations taxes. The bottom 50% of US income earners that file tax returns pay 3.2% of the nations total taxes.
Phil Farrell
The bean market was erratic today with values up $.07 at one point overnight, $.13 lower during the day and closing $.01 lower. There was another export sale reported to China today but that seems to be expected by the market at this point as they continue to get coverage well into the new year. Export sales are expected to be very strong on beans tomorrow as last weeks strong sales to China will be reported. In general we would expect to see export sales for new crop to continue strong for the near future with South American supplies at record small levels for this time of year.
I read an interesting comment on the Gartman report today: The top 1% of US income
earners pay 38.4% of the nations taxes. Top 5% pay 58.8% of the nations taxes. Top 10% pay 69.7% of the nations taxes. Top 25% paid 85.6% of the nations taxes. Top 50% paid 96.8% of the nations taxes. The bottom 50% of US income earners that file tax returns pay 3.2% of the nations total taxes.
Phil Farrell
Tuesday, August 18, 2009
Tuesday August 18th, 2009
Crop conditions out yesterday afternoon showed corn at 68% G/E only 1% better than last year with the current USDA yield guess at 159.5 bu which is 6 bu better than last year or a percentage increase of 4%, something doesn't make sense to me. South Dakota lost 6% with Indiana down %5 due to dryness. Illinois and Iowa were also down 1% vs last week's report. Pro Farmer is doing it's annual crop tour with better crops so far reported in Ohio with corn up 30 bu/ac and soybeans also up 10-15%. South Dakota corn looks similar to last year and that is figuring an average frost which this year will have a big impact due to the maturity level.
Soybean weekly crop condition rated at 66% G/E vs 63% last year. Soybean crop maturity like the corn is also being noted by the Pro Farmer Tour as being well behind last year as far as setting pods. The USDA crop ratings are 1.3% better than last year but the yield estimate is 5% better than last year, again things don't add up one way or another. Old crop soybean basis is all over the board and new crop soybean basis is strengthening to above normal numbers do to the lack of new crop cash sales and strong export demand for Oct, Nov, Dec. Weather looks friendly to crop potential as scattered rains are forecast along with normal temperatures.
Scott Meyer
Soybean weekly crop condition rated at 66% G/E vs 63% last year. Soybean crop maturity like the corn is also being noted by the Pro Farmer Tour as being well behind last year as far as setting pods. The USDA crop ratings are 1.3% better than last year but the yield estimate is 5% better than last year, again things don't add up one way or another. Old crop soybean basis is all over the board and new crop soybean basis is strengthening to above normal numbers do to the lack of new crop cash sales and strong export demand for Oct, Nov, Dec. Weather looks friendly to crop potential as scattered rains are forecast along with normal temperatures.
Scott Meyer
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)
Posts
