Note: Corn Products in Chicago will open at 5 AM Monday, October 19, 2009 for truck corn deliveries.
Grain and soybean futures were lower across the board in today’s trading. Dec corn finished down 1 today but, gained 9 ½ cents this week. Nov soybeans were down 5 ½ cents today but, 13 ½ higher for the week. Export sales out today were on the low end of trade expectations for corn and slightly above expectation for soybeans. A small window of drier weather starting this weekend through early next week gave the market hope of a pickup in harvest activity. Dec Chicago wheat futures finished 6 ¼ cents lower. .
National average on highway diesel fuel prices ticked up a bit this week rising almost 2 cents per gallon. Crude oil trading higher this week will likely continue the up movement in diesel prices.
Weather continues to play havoc with harvest schedules. While we have seen other years of slow corn harvest nationally, soybean harvest is off to its slowest start in the last 20 years. Hopefully a window of drier weather this weekend and early next week materializes and allows us to get harvest moving locally.
Have a great weekend!
Mike Etienne
Friday, October 16, 2009
Thursday, October 15, 2009
Thursday October 15th, 2009
Good Evening Coop blog reads. How about that Energy Market? If you dabble in spec trade you are probably jumping for joy this week. It has been a week of large gains across the board in products and crude. Energy futures hit a new high for 2009 with the release of this weeks DOE report showing draws in product and slight builds in crude. The story really began earlier this week, with large gains on Monday after the Saudi's released public statements about intentions to shut down all exports in the month of November and expect others to follow suite. Later in the day Valero and Sunoco shut down their New Jersey and Aruba refineries for an undisclosed amount of time to cut production rates. Apparently others have follow suite, with refinery runs plunging this week by 4.1% to 80.9% capacity; Expectations were a mere -.4%. We have seen gains everyday this week due to a weak dollar and positive financial reports on economic recovery. The technical picture is bullish with crude establishing new 2009 highs. Crude closed at $77.58 and heating oil came in .075 cents higher at $2.018. Gas closed .087 cents higher putting its weekly gain to about .16 cents.
The short term energy market outlook is bullish across the board. The DOE reported draws on diesel at 1.1 million bbls per day, with four week demand down 10.8% from last year. Why bullish with demand down you ask? Well, currently fewer diesel product will be made as refineries cut production, combine that with a late harvest and heating oil tanks filling with an early season chill and you get a bullish atmosphere. All of these factors will drive weekly demand over the coming months, continuing inventory reports to read bullish with draws. Gasoline showed draws of 5.2 million bbls per day, crushing early expectations of a build, opening the door for numbers to sore. Look for gas to test summer highs of 2.11. Gas will cost more tomorrow so if you reading this and can still make it to the station, fill up. Crude is forecasted to continue its climb with some calling for the $88 dollar mark. We are still long way from $88, but with $3.00 a day gains it will not take long to get there. My prediction is for some profit taking tomorrow, so expect a little give back tomorrow. On the other hand, we are out of our trend of 65-75 and its time for a new trend to be established.
Thanks for reading.
Zach Winter
The short term energy market outlook is bullish across the board. The DOE reported draws on diesel at 1.1 million bbls per day, with four week demand down 10.8% from last year. Why bullish with demand down you ask? Well, currently fewer diesel product will be made as refineries cut production, combine that with a late harvest and heating oil tanks filling with an early season chill and you get a bullish atmosphere. All of these factors will drive weekly demand over the coming months, continuing inventory reports to read bullish with draws. Gasoline showed draws of 5.2 million bbls per day, crushing early expectations of a build, opening the door for numbers to sore. Look for gas to test summer highs of 2.11. Gas will cost more tomorrow so if you reading this and can still make it to the station, fill up. Crude is forecasted to continue its climb with some calling for the $88 dollar mark. We are still long way from $88, but with $3.00 a day gains it will not take long to get there. My prediction is for some profit taking tomorrow, so expect a little give back tomorrow. On the other hand, we are out of our trend of 65-75 and its time for a new trend to be established.
Thanks for reading.
Zach Winter
Wednesday, October 14, 2009
Wednesday, October 14, 2009
Corn explored the upside today, but ultimately failed to hold early gains to settle just 1-2 cents better. Early in the session, corn saw gains of 6-7 cents. The outside markets again were supportive with the DOW topping 10,000 for the first time in a year and crude oil up $1.25 to 75.40. The Dec 2009 corn contract settled at $3.83 and the Dec 2010 settled at $4.20. There has been a noticeable increase in producer movement in the last three days that may have helped keep corn from posting the stronger gains into the close.
The soybean market also finished the day marginally higher after racing to significant gains shortly after the open. They were just 1-4 cents higher at the end of the day. Gains in crude oil and meal helped to drive the early strength and let the market avoid a letdown after a disappointing industry report. For the third straight session, the Nov 2009 beans moved above $10.00 but failed to close above it. They were up just 1 cent to $9.94 at the end of the day. The Nov 2010 was also up a penny, settling at $9.76 ¼. The bean spreads were mostly weaker on the day.
Locally the chief topic today seemed to be high moisture in soybeans. We are seeing producers poke into fields throughout Northern Illinois only to find that the beans are testing in the 16% + level with one sample into Morris yesterday testing at 21%! What to do with these beans? We do know many are putting them into farm bins with some sort of low heat, we are examining the possibility of drying them in our elevators but there are problems presented there as well. Here is to hoping for dry / warm weather next week to allow us all to move to the next issue, wet corn.
Phil
The soybean market also finished the day marginally higher after racing to significant gains shortly after the open. They were just 1-4 cents higher at the end of the day. Gains in crude oil and meal helped to drive the early strength and let the market avoid a letdown after a disappointing industry report. For the third straight session, the Nov 2009 beans moved above $10.00 but failed to close above it. They were up just 1 cent to $9.94 at the end of the day. The Nov 2010 was also up a penny, settling at $9.76 ¼. The bean spreads were mostly weaker on the day.
Locally the chief topic today seemed to be high moisture in soybeans. We are seeing producers poke into fields throughout Northern Illinois only to find that the beans are testing in the 16% + level with one sample into Morris yesterday testing at 21%! What to do with these beans? We do know many are putting them into farm bins with some sort of low heat, we are examining the possibility of drying them in our elevators but there are problems presented there as well. Here is to hoping for dry / warm weather next week to allow us all to move to the next issue, wet corn.
Phil
Tuesday, October 13, 2009
Tuesday October 13th, 2009
Crop progress out this afternoon with the government offices closed yesterday. Corn Mature at 74% vs 57% lw and 92% avg. Corn harvest at 13% this week vs 10% lw and 35% on average. Soybean harvest at 23% vs 15% lw and 57% on avg.
A day of consolidation in the corn pit today as futures ranged from up 5 cents to down 7 cents and closed up 1/2 cent. The corn market continues to debate the affects of the hard freeze over the weekend and how much grain was lost due to yields and quality problems. What harvest reports are coming out continue to be good yield wise but most of them come with extremely high moisture levels and scattered damage reports. Crude oil managed to close $1.16 higher as outside fund money continues to flow into commodities. The funds are estimated long 115,000 contracts of corn as investors look for a hedge against the US dollar.
Soybeans ended the day down 6 cents after having a large trading range of 25 cents. Soybean harvest has been hampered by cloudy cool conditions as moisture levels continue to run above 15%. Nearby soybean basis continues to be firm with the lack of harvest and the huge demand for the 1st quarter of the marketing year.
Scott Meyer
A day of consolidation in the corn pit today as futures ranged from up 5 cents to down 7 cents and closed up 1/2 cent. The corn market continues to debate the affects of the hard freeze over the weekend and how much grain was lost due to yields and quality problems. What harvest reports are coming out continue to be good yield wise but most of them come with extremely high moisture levels and scattered damage reports. Crude oil managed to close $1.16 higher as outside fund money continues to flow into commodities. The funds are estimated long 115,000 contracts of corn as investors look for a hedge against the US dollar.
Soybeans ended the day down 6 cents after having a large trading range of 25 cents. Soybean harvest has been hampered by cloudy cool conditions as moisture levels continue to run above 15%. Nearby soybean basis continues to be firm with the lack of harvest and the huge demand for the 1st quarter of the marketing year.
Scott Meyer
Monday, October 12, 2009
Monday October 12th, 2009
Both corn and soybeans saw a strong rally on Monday as cold weather over the weekend followed by forecast of cold temperatures over the next week send fear through the market of damage to the late maturity crop. Current estimates have pegged loss at around 200 million bushels after a hard freeze through most of the northern growing region this past weekend. The dollar also experienced weakness today as investors sought the higher yielding returns of other currencies.
Snow fell in some areas, with accumulations of 2 to 4 inches (5-10 cm) and "locally heavier" amounts in northern and western Iowa, southern Minnesota, eastern South Dakota and eastern Nebraska. Farther west, roughly 12 inches (30 cm) fell at North Platte, Nebraska. All but about 4 inches had melted by Monday morning.
Please Note: USDA will release their crop progress report tomorrow afternoon due to Columbus Day.
Chris Spurlock
Snow fell in some areas, with accumulations of 2 to 4 inches (5-10 cm) and "locally heavier" amounts in northern and western Iowa, southern Minnesota, eastern South Dakota and eastern Nebraska. Farther west, roughly 12 inches (30 cm) fell at North Platte, Nebraska. All but about 4 inches had melted by Monday morning.
Please Note: USDA will release their crop progress report tomorrow afternoon due to Columbus Day.
Chris Spurlock
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