Friday March 13, 2009

Today in Chicago Grain Markets closed as follows: May Corn closed up 3 1/4 and December Corn up 2 1/4. While May Soybeans closed down 5 1/2 and November closed down 17 3/4. This following Informa's updated acreage estimates for 2009 acre intentions as follows:
Corn 81.4 million acres (86 Last Year)
Soybeans 81.5 million acres (75.7 Last Year)
Corn is taking the lead in Chicago as short term technical indicators are stabilizing support now can be found at 3.83 the 50 day moving average basis May Corn Futures. An item of note- May Corn put in an impressive performance closing up 27 1/2 for the week.
Soybeans are getting severely discounted to corn with the market beating them down in comparison to corn. A combination of wet weather and Informa stating acres up a sharp 7.6% over last year has placed soybeans in the back seat to corn.
Jeff Neisler

March 12,2009

Following a Wednesday trade that left the majority of the traders and analysts scratching their heads as to which direction the markets were heading. Then with today's trading higher on bullish export sales and shipments the trade continued its bullish advance to send corn and beans 20 cents higher on the day with wheat following up 16 to 18 cents. This was one of the few times in recent memory that prices continued higher as the day progressed. The noncommercials got on board today helping support prices throughout the day. As of this writing the bias is for a higher opening in the night trade.

Chuck Peterson

Weds. March 11, 2009

Today grain markets closed modestly lower with corn losing 11 cents and soybeans losing 15 cents. In outside markets the Dow Jones trying to consolidate after yesterday's rally and crude oil falling as much as 7% at one point during the session. All of this following the monthly USDA Supply and Demand Report released this morning numbers as follows:
Domestic Corn Carryout 1.74 BBU (1.79 Last Month)
World Corn Carryout 144.6 MMT (136.66 Last Month)
Domestic Soybean Carryout 185 Mil Bu (210 Last Month)
World Soybean Carryout 49.95 MMT (49.87 Last Month)
In my opinion what we should expect to see is some sort of sideways stabilization trade going into the North American planting season. If that all goes well, I would expect that the downside risk could open up substantially. Especially under the current economic climate. A real drag on the corn market is cheap feed wheat located around the world with the USDA pegging world wheat carryout up 30% at 155.85 MMT vs 120.13 just one year ago.
Jeff Neisler

March 10th, 2009

Three, count them 1, 2, 3 trading day closes of higher corn. The market up sharply today in line with higher equity markets, DOW up 350 pts and ethanol talk out of Washington D.C. Secretary of Ag Vilsack and House Speaker Pelosi showing support for increased ethanol blending from the current 10% to 12-13%. This increased blending while long term had a knee jerk reaction today for higher prices. With ethanol margins as skinny as they are right now, it would be hard to build the additional plants to meet this extra 2-3% blend. USDA supply and demand report out tomorrow morning at 7:30 with small adjustments being expected in corn with a higher carryout and small adjustments to soybeans with a smaller carryout expected.

Texas corn crop 20% planted with extremely dry conditions occurring across the entire state. Wet conditions around our area have shut off all navigation on the Illinois River as water levels are to push against ALL-TIME records later this evening and into tomorrow morning.

Argentina government and local producers are still trying to work out the 35% export tax on soybeans. These deteriorating discussions along with our lackluster cash price has forced basis to very strong historical values to feed China's demand.

Scott Meyer

March 9, 2009

Very little news driving today’s markets, aside from continuation short covering in front of Spring worries and the USDA Supply & Demand report on Wednesday. Corn closed up 4 cents today. But U.S. equity markets faired better on the open than expected allowing crude to recover, the US dollar to weaken and grains to open higher than previously thought. Asian and European equity markets were lower on bank failure concerns abroad. Trader focus is on USDA report this week, weather and planted acreage ideas. Average trade guess for U.S ending stocks at 1,800 Mln. bu.

Soybeans started out of the gate fast, but were unable to hold the early mid-teen gains much beyond the first 5 minutes of trade. Then the market traded on both sides of unchanged until finally falling lower by the closing bell. Futures spreads continue to weaken and be inverted, which indicates bullish underlying fundamentals. However, the problem for market bulls currently is the fact that soybeans continue to trade in a vacuum, unable to break free and ignite the seasonal rally we've been expecting. Ideas that more acres of soybeans will be planted this spring continue to weigh on the market as well.