Friday, May 1, 2009

Wow! There was a surge of new buying coming into corn, soybeans and wheat pushing the market to new highs in the last two minutes of today's trade.

Corn shook off the H1N1 by mid week, wet weather forecasts causing delayed planting progress (estimates from 27 to 35% vs. 55% 5-year average)and less competition from Argentina corn exports were supportive of flat prices; the May contract closed up $.28 from last Friday. Western belt planting progress expected at a strong 63%, while Eastern belt at less than 10% planted by Sunday is quite a spread west to east! The 6/10 and 8/14 forecasts seem to be unfavorable in the eastern belt for planting, but that can change quickly. Note, we saw very heavy cash grain movement today as cash corn hit several week highs and maybe we are optimistic about getting into the field next week? Lets hope that is the case.

Soybeans were up $.36 today and gained $.57 for the week and seem to keep rolling along making new highs for the year today with cash soybeans delivered to Morris closing at $11.01 today. Market attention continues to focus on tightening old crop supplies due to the continued strong export demand, especially from China, as well as the fact soybean production estimates for S. America continue to decline. Argentina’s crop is estimated by one interior source at 34.0 MMT (last USDA est. 39.0). The fact that some acres, especially in the eastern belt, may move from corn to beans is weighing on new crop to some degree, but overall beans seem to have found some bullish momentum that is hard to slow. As with corn and wheat, the swine flu story moved to the background as the week progressed.

Have a good weekend, Phil Farrell

Wednesday April 29, 2009

Grain markets in Chicago closed modestly higher today. Shaking off Swine Flu rhetoric and paying much needed attention to the wet weather pattern that is inhibiting planting progress as the calendar closes in on May 1st.

Corn Futures closed modestly higher with July and December Corn both closing up 17 cents. Supported by strengthening corn basis and wet weather. The Corn markets job is source bushels including sourcing and keeping new crop corn acres stable. Rumors circulating on ideas that 2008 corn crop potential was overstated by the USDA. December Corn looks poised to challenge the 4.40 area late this week with values closing near 2 week highs. Potential for gap higher open on Thursday looks in the cards.

Soybean Futures closed sharply higher today following reports of shrinking Argentina supplies. Though many traders are feeling comfortable about new crop soybean supplies given wet weather scenarios. I would look for November Soybeans to take a back seat to especially corn.

Upcoming News:
7:30am CST USDA Export Sales estimates as follows
Corn 31-47 MB
Soybeans 26-37 MB
Wheat 13-17 MB

Jeff Neisler

Tuesday April 28th, 2009

News leaders today in the grain market were "Swine Flu" and "China cancelling sales". Swine flu continues to spread to more countries with the United States Secretary of State releasing a travel recommendation against non-essential travel to Mexico. The pork industry continues to be hammered no matter the fact of how this flu is transmitted "human to human". Swine Flu weighing on futures but the wet fields of the Midwest prevailed today as corn finished 3 cents higher. Corn basis continues to remain strong as futures have backed up and many are looking to drive tractors instead of grain trucks for the upcoming month.

Talk on the trading floor today of China cancelling 4-5 old crop bean cargoes had the market on the defensive today on the nearby months. Many traders are already starting to pencil in a few more bean acres in the eastern corn belt due to the slow planting pace.

Scott Meyer

Monday April 27, 2009

Futures traded lower on Monday over international concerns of swine flu as word spread that the flu is making it's way from Mexico into the U.S. and Canada. Traders are feeling concerns that despite the fact that the flu is not spread via pork consumption, demand will most likely be curbed as a result, which will also curb demand for grain.

Crop planting progress was out tonight showing corn plantings at 22% vs. 5% last week and 9% last year, traders had been predicting between 15% to 20%. Iowa, Minnesota and Nebraska all posting large gains, at 47%, 40%, and 27% respectively. Soybeans were shown at 3% planted nation wide.

Chris Spurlock