Friday, April 30, 2010

Note: Corn Products in Chicago will close at midnight Friday, April 30, 2010 and re-open 5AM Monday, May 3, 2010.

Elburn Coop in Morris will be open for corn and soybeans on Monday , May 3, 2010
Elburn Coop in Ottawa will be open for corn on Monday, May 3, 2010.

The market had several interesting developments this week to factor in. In the export market, rumors of China buying US Corn were confirmed on Wednesday by the USDA reporting a sale of 115,000 metric tons by private exporters. There are further rumors that more sales to China may be forthcoming. It remains to be seen how well phytosanitary hurdles can be cleared to actually get the corn into China. Marketers are also closely following developments with the uncapped oil well in the Gulf of Mexico that is spewing 1000’s of gallons of oil per day into the Gulf. The oil slick reached some coastal areas today and almost certainly will reach more by the end of the weekend. The oil slick also threatens to shut down vessel traffic into and out of the lower Mississippi River. Any lengthy shut down there could have significant effects on our local river values and basis. Locally corn planting is practically complete and some soybean planting has commenced. A wary eye is cast to some cooler than normal temperatures forecast in early May and rain this weekend is expected to cause some field work delays. Otherwise the weather looks to be very good. Most all nearby grain bids have now moved to basis July futures.

In today’s trading, grain futures were higher across the board. This in the face of outside markets that were generally lower. Corn found support from rumors of additional Chinese purchases. Thunderstorms across the Midwest delaying fieldwork were also supportive but, it must be noted that planting progress is well above the 5 year average for this time of year. July corn finished up 6 ¼ today and up 14 ¼ for the week. July soybeans closed up 3 today but, after a dismal start on Monday & Tuesday finished the week down 11. July Chicago wheat futures finished 7 ½ higher for the day and down 2 ½ for the week after a bad start similar to soybeans.

National average on highway diesel fuel prices rose only 0.4 cents in this weeks report but, continued a 5 week up streak. Though stocks of distillates and crude oil remain historically high, the national average price for diesel is about 80 cents higher than last year at this time.

Have a great weekend!
Mike Etienne

Thursday, April 29, 2010

April 29th, 2010

What a month. It is Energy Thursday and the roller coaster continues. The Energy complex has seen a week of ups and downs, to land about flat for the week. The story has been the day to day saga over Greece and its finical hardship and the constant dichotomy of the state of our economy; it seems to change with the wind. One thing is for certain crude and product are on the rise again. Crude jumped about $2 today and diesel and gas are both up a few cents. Tomorrow is the last day of trade for both the June futures heating oil and RBOB contract, which could drive the numbers south as some profits are taken. The month of April added about .15 cents to the market.
There is still a lot of talk about China's demand causing mid summer spikes of $100 crude, but I think the lingering effects of our economic short fall should keep a lid on $100 crude. Reuters reported 2010 crude should average about 81.10, leaving a little room for a $90 run, which would most likely get gas and diesel up by about .25 or more mid summer. Also remember the largest holder of crude contracts in the world is still under the gun(Goldman Sachs) and position limits are still in the Washington think tank. Time will tell, but budget a little more for fuel in the coming months.
I am Zach Winter, out.

Wednesday, April 28, 2010

Wednesday April 28, 2010

Good afternoon bloggers! Today corn was up +9 cents @ $3.57. Soybeans were unchanged @ $9.83. Wheat was down -2 cents @ $4.96.

Today's news was dominated by China buying 150mmt of corn from USA. It is significant because it is the first time China has bought corn from the USA since 2006-2007 growing season. The positive news of China purchasing corn gave the market something to react positively on. Though China has bought corn from USA, it will be another thing to see if the Chinese government will allow the corn to be unloaded come delivery time.

Previous corn planting record of 37% in 2004. This year producers are on record pace at an astonishing 50%. South Africa will start harvesting a record crop in May. March USA soybean crush was up 1.2mbu at a record 156.1mbu. Mexico absorbed 3.3mbu of soybeans. South American soybeans are slowly making it into the pipeline. 11.3mbu. soybean sales (highest since February) is a figure that has some jumping to the 'South American pipeline' conclusion.

There is talk that corn acres are switching over to bean acres. New Orleans soybean basis is +45 May. Most bids from the processor market is firm and steady. The river markets are still very competitive and still dealing with expensive barge freight rates. The weather has been very favorable as of late and will continue into Friday. Illinois and most of the Midwest will be seeing rain this weekend and warmer temperatures in the 70's. No cold weather is expected for the next 10 days.

Stay classy Illinois,
Nathaniel Dubravec

Tuesday, April 27, 2010

Tuesday April 27th, 2010

Record planting progress, great weather, and a much lower stock market all contributed to corn and beans down 5 and 16 cents respectively. Crude oil has even gotten into the game today as it is down $2 a barrel. December 2010 corn futures finished at 3.69 and marks the lowest close since Sept 22, 2009. All market news seems to be concentrated on the weather and planting progress with both being extremely bearish.

US stock markets fell today as Greek and Portuguese debt was downgraded to basically JUNK by market analysts. The Euro fell to a 12 month low against the US Dollar so any of you wishing to take a European vacation for bargain US dollar prices should start looking into it. Goldman Sachs execs were on capital hill today and faced grilling on how they traded through the housing bubble and made billions off the collapse. Explanations must have been good enough for wall st. because on a day when the dow is down over 12o pts, Goldman stock rose over 1%.

Cash corn market basis levels are at great levels vs May 2010 futures contract as the pipeline tries to originate movement in the presence of record field activity.

Scott Meyer

Monday, April 26, 2010

Monday April 26th, 2010

Well I am sure it comes as no shock to anyone that the USDA weekly crop progress report shows planting at 50% this week vs. 19% last week, and 22% on the 5 year average. Around here most areas' are higher then that. Corn has little fundamental support as most expected the U.S.D.A to show planting progress between 45% and 50% in its crop progress report Monday afternoon. The record pace for this week is 52%. Weekend rains were considered good for the crop, and more rains in the forecast are not seen as a major problem for U.S. planting as a whole. Considering wheat's slide, corn "held its own." Funds sold an estimated 2,000 contracts Monday, but traders and analysts say that in general the funds have been supporting prices. One analyst noted there are a lot of investors who see the Ag commodities, primarily corn and soybeans, as undervalued relative to their alternative investments, such as crude and stocks that are at their 19 month highs.

Soybean futures ended modestly lower, unable to sustain early price strength on technically oriented selling pressure. Futures experienced two-sided trading action, with technical and seasonal buying giving way to profit taking pressure after fund buying was exhausted. Positive seasonal buying patterns and carryover technical buying led prices near four-month highs in early trade. However, without fresh supportive news, a record large South American harvest and record projected U.S. plantings futures had little support to sustain the advances. Concerns that heavy Midwest rains may stall corn seedings and possibly lead to additional soybean acres helped take some edge off prices as well.

Chris Spurlock