January 20, 2009

After today's Presidential Inauguration, the dollar made a significantly stronger move higher and that hurt commodity prices throughout the day. Weather in South America continues to be dry with limited rain in Argentina over the long weekend. Brazil weather has not been as harsh but also not ideal. Crop prospects in South America will continue to decline with the current 7-10 day forecast which only shows scattered showers. Today's negative price action is being attributed to fund selling (profit taking from Friday's trade) and a stronger dollar. Locally, last week's weather is taking a toll on the Illinois River with ice issues creating problems for barge traffic. Tonight's price ratio of 2.21 (Dec 09 corn at $4.30 and Nov 09 soybeans at $9.53) still favors a switch to more soybeans but time will tell what actually happens this spring.

Scott Meyer