A beautiful day outside and a stronger dollar were enough to push corn $.095 lower today. The noon weather maps seemed to show substantially warmer than normal weather for the 6 to 14 day period with some rains but not enough to keep planting progress from kicking into gear. There were reports of planters in the field in Northern Illinois with some areas of Iowa, Minnesota and Wisconsin reporting very active planting! December futures lost $.15 this week in a blah week in comparison to soybeans in particular.
Speaking of soybeans, the old crop rally led by continued Chinese bean demand and lower Argentina crop expectations took a break today as traders took the improved weather outlook as reasoning to take some profits after the $2.00 rally since mid March. Is it over? Well that seems to be tied export sales and the resulting impact on ending stocks, the April USDA S&D report projected 165 million bushel carryover, the trade currently seems to be assuming about 120 currently and is worried about having adequate stocks to carry us to new crop. This explains why July futures are now $1.00 higher than November as the market scrambles for available supplies. Basis values appear to be backing away somewhat vs nearby futures but the old to new crop spread seems to continue strong. It will until the rally is over.
Have a safe and productive weekend, Phil Farrell
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