Friday, June 5 2009

General Highlights Today:
· Stronger Dollar held grains markets from moving higher today.
· July crude oil was down $.37 barrel to close at $68.44 a barrel.
· US dollar index was 1.278 points higher, at 80.692 at 2:26 CDT.
· The Dow was up 24 points to 8,774 at 2:21 CDT.

Today the corn market was relatively quiet as we traded in a 6 cent range, for the week corn was up about $.08. From that respect it looks like a quiet week until one looks Wednesday and Thursday when we switched from -$.17 to up $.165! The stronger dollar and profit taking going into the weekend kept corn futures on the defensive. One news story largely ignored today was a University of Illinois projection of a 148.6 bushel per acre national yield, if realized this would indicate a 600 mbu carryout or so for next year. The current market is bringing to light the battle of the toll on livestock producers as rumors are beginning to increase that many may be forced out of the livestock business due to heavy losses. So much for the 600 mbu carryout... Commodity funds were estimated to be net sellers of 4,000 contracts of corn. Rain events for much of the Midwest this weekend are predicted with amounts ranging from 1 to 2 inches. Most traders view these rains as beneficial.

Soybeans futures traded lower today on a stronger US Dollar and expectations that USDA will increase new crop acreage in the Supply and Demand estimate coming out on Wednesday the 10th. For the week July soybeans gained $.41 while new crop was essentially unchanged as the market deals with the expectations of short supplies of old crop beans due to strong exports and now domestic usage and the expected increase in acreage. Profit taking was also noted in today’s trade as funds were estimated net sellers of 2,000 contracts soybeans,1,000 contracts of soybean meal, and 2,000 contracts of soybean oil.

Have a great weekend, Phil Farrell