Corn
Market expecting a record US yield on corn and we got it. 161.9 bpa vs 159.5 last month. This puts production up 193 mbu but we will carry in 35 mbu less from the old crop due to better old crop demand. New crop usage also up 50 mbu on feed, up 100 mbu exports, ethanol unchanged. So… 164 mbu higher supply, 150 more usage, adds 14 mbu to carryout netting 1.635 bbu. The market was expecting something approaching 2 bbu. So, maybe this bearish report isn’t quite so bearish.
Beans
Old carry in is unchanged at 110 mbu. Production up 46 mbu due to 6/10ths of a bu increase in yield to 42.3 bu/acre. Usage up 35 mbu: 20 on crush, up 15 on exports. Net new-crop carryout up 10 mbut to 220 mbu.
Globally, world coarse grain ending stocks are up on old crop 1.5 mmt, but down for 09/10 1.6 mmt. Little bullish World bean stocks of .8 mmt old, and up .2 mmt for 09/10. Neutral
Sell the rumor buy the fact? Calls are firming up, maybe higher?
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