Tuesday November 10th, 2009

USDA Report out this morning

Corn yield lowered from 164.2 in October to 162.9 with reports of 4.0% lower average ear weights in IL. The corn carryout for next year was lowered 50 mbu but still stands at 1.625 billion. Interesting to also see world corn supplies decreasing next year as well but only minimally. Corn started out on the defensive but managed to end up 8 cents today after a fury of technical fund buying late in the session. JP Morgan and Goldman Sacs released wires today touting buying commodities in their investment portfolios as the Goldman Sacs commodity fund is up 60% from lows set in December 2008. During that same period, corn is is up 32%, soybeans 24%, wheat 14%, crude oil 233%, and the US Dollar is -14%.

Soybeans were hit with a more negative report today with yields increased .9 bu/ac from 42.4 to 43.3 bu. Carryout for next year also increased from 230 million to 270. The Brazil crop was estimated at 63.0 mmt vs 62 in Oct and Argentina at 53 mmt vs 52.5 in Oct. South America seems poised for average-above average production this year but it's still early, equivalent to our May time period.

Scott Meyer