The season of low volume is upon us with two holiday shortened weeks to end the year. The corn market seemed to have some pretty good support for a while today with commodity fund orders pushing the market up $.07 at one time today. Once the round of buying was done however the market slowly gave up the gains before closing up $.02 for the day. The snowstorm that impacted the East coast closed all government offices today so the export inspections report and the crop progress reports have been delayed until Tuesday.
The soybean market spent most of the day weaker as weather in South America appears ideal and there are concerns that the a key Bio-diesel $1.00 per gallon tax credit will expire December 31 without renewal. Needless to say the credit in some form is needed for that particular industry to compete. Most traders expect it to either be extended or renewed after the first of the year with retroactive credits but there is concern nonetheless. The recent acres estimates by Informa for next year bean production have been a negative influence on beans in the past several days as it indicates a growth in acres that coupled with good growing conditions in South America could indicate that equilibrium prices for soybeans could start with a 9 instead of a 10.... There seems to be macro-economic influences that continue to support soybeans however so the ability to predict price direction from here continues to be difficult at best.
Phil Farrell
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