Wow, The weather certainly was nice today now if only we can piece some more together. The corn market is taking notice of the rain plagued Eastern Cornbelt as futures with a $.09 gain today and now are at their highest level since January. Cash basis levels which have been strong all spring are taking a hit with producers rewarding the strong markets. We have been talking about the large amount of producer corn that is yet to move into the market and it is feeling like we are starting to see it happen. The heaviest movement is in the western corn belt where planting progress is near or ahead of normal. There is also a fair amount of commodity and index fund buying as other commodities also are rising to support the grains. Today Informa estimated U.S. corn acres at 83.9 million which is only about a million below the USDA planting intentions report and seems aggressive to those of us east of the Mississippi.
The Soybean market seemed to be up $.10 every day this week but in fact are only up $.20 from last Friday, there has been a lot of give and take as traders try to figure out acreage switching, Argentine soybean problems and the continued Chinese appetite for soybeans. This week there were trade discussions that China was: A) pushing May sales to June, B)old crop to new crop, C)outright cancellations and D)additional old crop purchases. At this point it seems that as long as there are doubts about the ability of Argentina to supply soybeans there will be Chinese demand for U.S. beans and they will be well supported. The new crop beans were only up $.08 for the week and are trying to follow the old contracts but ideas of additional acres could limit potential there for the time being.
For now, I'm hoping we have another weekend of sun and missed thundershowers so we can get some fieldwork done.
Phil Farrell
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