Soybean supply and demand continues to dominate the agriculture futures market. Old crop soybeans are $11.01 on the CBOT and the Morris Illinois River basis is 14.5 cents above that futures price! The market is trying to find a price where China quits buying our beans and where processors start slowing down crushing them as we see the carryout numbers for this year get down in the low 100 million bushel range. New crop soybean prices have also perked up and it seems as though the market still isn't concerned over corn planting progress. Planters have gingerly started rolling around the Sycamore and DeKalb area today. Weather forecasts have been supportive today to corn futures as the 5-10 day forecast for much of the corn belt shows off and on rain showers occurring.
One reason for the strong river basis this year has been the decrease in barge freight. With the slower economy and less raw materials being loaded at the gulf to be shipped north, grains have enjoyed better rates with less competition from other materials. Barge freight today is 60% cheaper than it was at this time last year. For a comparison on what the cheaper freight has meant to corn basis at the river consider this, Morris terminal corn basis tonight is -4 cents vs last year on this date at -41.
Scott Meyer
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